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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 CJ Caesar Jaramillo
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>CJ: EHU 8F HUE +12 12
#note 1:37 [23:23] (hue 8g 12 +1.6) JJB's next three games are against Midwest players that he has not met for 20-30 years, and he is anxious to rematch each of them; hellos have been exchanged and everyone hopes to have improved in the meantime. CJ is having a great tourney at 3-0 and is anxious to maintain that. He keeps bingo tiles in abeyance as he plays off innocent-seeming vowels.
>JJB: ADFIIVY H8 .DIFY +16 16
#note 0:41 [24:19] (diva i8 17 +4.3) It's hard to tell, but AIV -7.4 is way behind FIY -4.1. Unaware of this, JJB neglects to consider hooking hued. Also, putting a scorer in the quadruple lane might not be recommended to a 3-tile opening.
>CJ: ?AENORS 12D ANnO.ERS +70 82
#note 1:28 [21:55] (profanes 11e 90 +20) Good draw! The killers here are profanes/seafront 90, but CJ's play is toxic enough. Overlaps in column I are worth up to 76 (persona plus four words).
>JJB: AIOPTVX 7E VOX +43 59
#note 0:43 [23:36] JJB is not worried as his opponent has also given a cogent X spot for recovery.
>CJ: DEER 11H .REED +26 108
#note 2:34 [19:21] Time ticks as CJ considers how to get to his next bingo given duplication and he works out the overlap.
>JJB: AAEEIPT 11D PEA +19 78
#note 0:30 [23:06] JJB can also parallel toward a bingo.
>CJ: BIS I6 BIS +13 121
#note 1:11 [18:10] (bi 10k 12 +7.0; bis 10b 16 +3) Assuming CJ holds another S, he is right to play one off (except in one case he could be holding, in which the fish of ban f10 10 is more worthwhile). If he holds only one S, he should keep it unless he can bingo or play basin 13i 34. Either way, besides seeking bingos up to 9 letters, he needs to consider the higher placement of bis/spa 16, which also hooks the I that he will have on his next rack; and options like bi/bes/id 12.
>JJB: AEGHITU 5F AUGITE +20 98
#note 2:51 [20:15] (augh 13a 24 +2.4) Augh/pah and dhuti/bish are the higher-scoring hooks with acceptable leave.
>CJ: ADEINST 13I DETAINS +82 203
#note 0:48 [17:22] CJ has persevered to score a maximal triple overlap (destain also fits).
>JJB: AHILNNQ 12M QI +24 122
#note 1:18 [18:57] (ahing h1 30 +1.2) Given that ahing 30 sets up a second 20+ qi spot while closing a triple, there is no need to dispose of the Q immediately.
>CJ: BGOOY 4K BOOGY +34 237
#note 0:31 [16:51] (booty j2 39 +2.1) Holding the Y but missing a chance to score big at j6, and giving opponent some points back too. Yet this will be CJ's biggest lead at 115 and he is ready to defend it.
>JJB: AHLNNTZ O1 HAZ. +57 179
#note 0:32 [18:25]
>CJ: IN 6I .IN +16 253
#note 1:14 [15:37] CJ is still hopeful of another bingo, and there's a lot that isn't shut down yet.
>JJB: CLNNNTT -CLNNNTT +0 179
#note 0:27 [17:58] (exchange LNNTT 0 +3.0) JJB still isn't comfortable trading to such synergies as CN, CL, NT, CNT, all of which beat conn m3 12 (which is still better than trading all).
>CJ: IV 2M VI. +12 265
#note 0:22 [15:15] Good block, but is it the best use or the best choice?
>JJB: AEJKMSU O10 JES.UM +61 240
#note 0:36 [17:22] At this point JJB claims a bingo equivalent with his S using an obscure 6-letter J word. Alas, Jessum* is so obscure as a bio-geo name that it's a total phony. It rates 9.5 ahead of jauk/pak 39 and jauk/jest/ad 39.
>CJ: RW M2 .R.W +20 285
#note 1:16 [13:59] (challenge +61) Not challenging is CJ's biggest missed opportunity. Though he is busy balancing his rack slowly, he is now tailed closely.
>JJB: ACDKRUW 4B WRACK +34 274
#note 0:46 [16:36] (wauk 13a 31 +5.4) DU is actually worth -6.2, while CDR after wauk/pak 31 (ahead of wack/pak) is worth +2.2. Leave math is hard!
>CJ: ELNO 3A NOEL +19 304
#note 1:22 [12:37] CJ is not finding the bingo but can at least shut down the new lines.
>JJB: DGNORRU 13B NURD +19 293
#note 4:53 [11:43] (gourd 13a 23 +9.0) Now JJB is holding some reasonable tiles and has also closed the gap fast even if he doesn't bingo. After much consideration, he hangs out an N while holding a G, but could have done the reverse with gourd for the same effect but better score, leave, and followup.
>CJ: AT 2A AT +18 322
#note 0:58 [11:39] CJ is likely struggling with duplicates at this point and doesn't see it worth defending against the new line.
>JJB: FGINORT B7 FRONTI.G +78 371
#note 0:16 [11:27] The tiles come together and JJB takes a strong lead, while one blank is unseen. Though there are good odds CJ has it, JJB is taking seven of the last ten tiles.
>CJ: EIT A6 TIE +20 342
#note 1:56 [9:43] Without a blank or S for stow, CJ misjudges his chances and runs to block the triple and empty the bag in an attempt to reduce duplication. Playing off two (et a8) might give him a chance to draw the blank and threaten a bingo, with win odds around 25%. Revealing his rack puts him at only about 5% odds.
>JJB: ?ACLMOO 10J CLAM +33 404
#note 7:26 [4:01] (cloy 10j 30, ape c8 20, oma 3f 15+8 +1) JJB has time to work out some superior endplay, only one point behind the best. The key is to spot o/ka and visualize the M at 3g, and then oma and clo_ (6 possibilities) will be able to be counted at 45 instead of clam and good for 44.
>CJ: AEELLPT 1A PALLET +49 391
>CJ: AEELLPT -- -49 342
#note 0:30 [9:13] (ape c8 20, woo 9l 11+8 +30) CJ makes a final omission by relying on atow* to get him some last points (claiming 49). Instead the best two plays minus leaves are tepal 16 and ape 20, of which tepal allows opponent too much counterplay. His choice penalizes his spread by a further 30 points, while the reward if his phony had succeeded would have been 35 ahead of best play. Ultimately it comes down to one's assessment of one's opponent, so if opponent had been judged 55% likely to challenge then this play should have been eschewed.
>JJB: ?OO N4 .OOd +11 415
#note 1:11 [2:06] JJB takes another search, then puts down "good wo" as his choice.
>JJB: (AEELLPT) +18 433
#note JJB converts a 115-point deficit into a relatively even game with the help of a 61-point phony, and then pulls way ahead when CJ's continued slow play allows a chance bingo, and he does not allow CJ the privilege of a phony in return. JJB's choice of nurd over gourd was an omission, but he was blessed to receive the bingo in this rarer case anyway. Aside from handling the two big phonies and his neglect of an early quadruple, CJ did not make significant demonstrable errors, but it is likely that there were missed rack improvement opportunities. On the other hand, JJB can celebrate one of his lowest error rates ever on known racks. (And thanks to the players' tight word-crossing, there are unique broad open spaces at the top and bottom of the board.) Known points available: JJB 1, CJ 114. Overall points available: JJB 26.3, CJ 121.7+.
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