Luck, etc.

[gcviebranz]

I think about this a lot, and I'd like to see a discussion here. I understand that over a long enough timeline, nobody draws better than anybody else. Still, there are some people who believe they are lucky, and God knows there are people who believe that they're unlucky. I would like to say that I don't believe in luck, but then I think about the players who keep a good luck charm with them while they play. If they believe that this inanimate object brings luck to them, that could add confidence, which I feel is a very important part of the game. Is there such thing as luck? How long can it last? Why this person and not that person?

I know it's a broad topic, but I would love to hear everyone else's thoughts.

[sjackson12]

everyone has the same amount of luck. The more games that are played, the more the luck evens out and skill determines who does the best. This is why in tournaments with a lot of games (like the nationals), certain players always finish near the top. If luck was a bigger factor someone like Brian Cappaletto should have much more variability in his final standing.

[lordiceman]

I would like to say that I don't believe in luck, but then I think about the players who keep a good luck charm with them while they play. If they believe that this inanimate object brings luck to them, that could add confidence, which I feel is a very important part of the game.

I think you hit on the key point here. I don't believe that anyone is more lucky or unlucky... but if a player believes that to be the case, it can affect how they play. I know quite a few players who absolutely believe they are inherently more unlucky than other players. This can lead to playing with a pessimistic outlook and choosing inferior plays. Like seeing a potential winning play that is risky, but choosing not to do it because "these things never work out for me." This also seems to go hand-in-hand with emotional control issues.

[MEHnotinvain]

First, it is absolutely absurd to imagine that everyone is subject to a 'phenomenon' in exactly the same manner.

That said, the various forms luck takes in tile drawing would be, to a degree, measurable if all racks were annotated. Personally, i eschew one tile fishes because, in my experience, i miss when i do. i suppose if i subscribed to what i would call the idiotic notion that things even out over time, then i might expect that i should never again draw WU since i have had my share and 10 other persons' as well (lemme know when u do 19 outta 27 and 14 outta 20 WUs. n den tell me when u draw da last 3 of a tile 4 straight draws in a row--fluckin TWICE in a lifetime.)

some people are lucky when drawing tiles n some people izz ridiculously unlucky. some people izz lucky wif women (fluckin JZ landin Beyonce?????????) n some of us got some toothless skeletons in our closet. some people izz lucky 2b born at da right time n some people izz a walking anachronism over MANY lifetimes...

izz it any doubt i'm MEH...

[millcake16]

The best way to deal with luck is to just not think about it too much, and more importantly, don't express your frustration during the game. It tends to make your opponent unnecessarily get more comfortable.

[cesar]

i've drawn about 40% of the blanks for my last 8 tournaments, but i'd be a fool if i were to say this explains bad results. there is so much to the game. i've also had tourneys where i've drawn tons of blanks in the past. in the end, luck should even out. i'm a strong empiricist, and i make enough mistakes so that there's no way i can blame a blank shortage for it. there is no such thing as players with bad luck or good luck.

[getofftheoven]

You can't do anything about luck short of pulling a Hodges, so I figure the best way to think about it is just to learn to accept it. I'm not saying I'm perfect on this score, but I'd like to get to the point where the way the tiles come out of the bag does not affect my emotions or my analysis even one little bit - because it shouldn't.

If a player genuinely thinks he's inherently doomed to draw worse than others, then the only logical thing for him to do is to quit playing Scrabble and find a game that's less supernaturally biased against him.

[Noctiluca]

-

[MEHnotinvain]

i didn't say anything about being inherently doomed to drawin poorly. i said that it is a simply a fact that some people are luckier than others when it comes to drawin tiles. i also said that such could ONLY be ascertained by analyzing ALL racks of EVERY game.

In the 19 of 27 WUs stretch, i went 14 of 20 in Albany with 4 four losses directly traceable to WU (including 2 tile endgame fishes where WU draw was ONLY loss vs bingoing out). However, in a one day Philly doin 5 of 7--i had 5 500 games including AEGKQUW go for 48 followed by 102.

The above example of going from a bad rack to a bingo is an example of fortuitous timing in drawing that i simply do not do that is reflected in my spread. Dave Wiegand, for example, draws EXTERMELY well . i can't even look at his Bing Report CUZ it HURT to see HOW lucky he sometime is. i blew snot out my nose when once i saw him comment that keepin 4 vowels n a consonant woulda worked fine on another day--it juss didn't work THAT time (he draw so good, he EXPECT to draw well rather den HOPE).

[millcake16]

i didn't say anything about being inherently doomed to drawin poorly. i said that it is a simply a fact that some people are luckier than others when it comes to drawin tiles. i also said that such could ONLY be ascertained by analyzing ALL racks of EVERY game.

In the 19 of 27 WUs stretch, i went 14 of 20 in Albany with 4 four losses directly traceable to WU (including 2 tile endgame fishes where WU draw was ONLY loss vs bingoing out). However, in a one day Philly doin 5 of 7--i had 5 500 games including AEGKQUW go for 48 followed by 102.

The above example of going from a bad rack to a bingo is an example of fortuitous timing in drawing that i simply do not do that is reflected in my spread. Dave Wiegand, for example, draws EXTERMELY well . i can't even look at his Bing Report CUZ it HURT to see HOW lucky he sometime is. i blew snot out my nose when once i saw him comment that keepin 4 vowels n a consonant woulda worked fine on another day--it juss didn't work THAT time (he draw so good, he EXPECT to draw well rather den HOPE).

Dave Wiegand wins because he's Dave Wiegand. I don't need to say any more than that.

[MEHnotinvain]

did i say Dave Wiegand win BCUZ he lucky or did i say Dave Wiegand wuzz LUCKY when it come to drawin tiles????????????????????

[Noctiluca]

Dave Wiegand wins because he's Dave Wiegand. I don't need to say any more than that.

This guy is legendary. Instead of seven tiles, Dave Wiegand once laid down seven hotels from Monopoly and won the challenge. Dave Wiegand once opened with QI and announced "checkmate in seven." His opponent resigned. Dave Wiegand plays Icelandic speed clabbers to warm up for tourneys. Dave Wiegand can eat a blank and crap a Q. Dave Wiegand once played a 24-letter word. The board is only 15x15, but Dave Wiegand made it fit. If you rearrange the letters in DAVEWIEGAND.... you can't, only Dave Wiegand can rearrange the letters in DAVEWIEGAND. Before going to sleep at night, Nigel Richards checks under his bed for Dave Wiegand.

[millcake16]

did i say Dave Wiegand win BCUZ he lucky or did i say Dave Wiegand wuzz LUCKY when it come to drawin tiles????????????????????

I'm not saying you said either.

All I'm saying is that even if Dave Wiegand only draws average, I'd still take my chances with his skill-set. How well he draws shouldn't even be an issue. I learned long ago - and it took me a while - to only focus on how well I play, and not how well other players draw, especially when they're playing against other players in games I have no control over. It's just one less thing to distract me.

That's all I have to say on this subject.

[HeylimberJoe]

"Dave Wiegand once laid down seven hotels from Monopoly and won the challenge"

Hahaha!

Going with the drawing-well-theory, I think all of the top players would agree that Wiegand is one of the most skilled players out there. He is currently #11, so does that mean the 10 players listed above him draw even better than he does?

[Magrathean]

This guy is legendary. Instead of seven tiles, Dave Wiegand once laid down seven hotels from Monopoly and won the challenge. Dave Wiegand once opened with QI and announced "checkmate in seven." His opponent resigned. Dave Wiegand plays Icelandic speed clabbers to warm up for tourneys. Dave Wiegand can eat a blank and crap a Q. Dave Wiegand once played a 24-letter word. The board is only 15x15, but Dave Wiegand made it fit. If you rearrange the letters in DAVEWIEGAND.... you can't, only Dave Wiegand can rearrange the letters in DAVEWIEGAND. Before going to sleep at night, Nigel Richards checks under his bed for Dave Wiegand.

It appears that you've managed to independently invent our hobby at Albany, which was to make up Adam Logan jokes. Although yours are better. I think our best one is that Adam Logan draws the WU on purpose just to keep things interesting for himself.

[marvin]

Dave Wiegand wins because he's Dave Wiegand. I don't need to say any more than that.

However, that begs the question.
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/begging-the-question.html

[bnjy99]

Since we're making Chuck Norris... I mean David Wiegand Jokes,

1. Sometimes, for fun, David Wiegand tries to tie all of his games.
2. David Wiegand can pronounce and find the anagram for Winter's last name.
3. David Wiegand once had a 0-20 +5000 tournament and gained rating points.
4. David Wiegand played ChuckNorris without using a blank as a space.

[slipkin]

Adam Logan can plan an 86-in-the-bag endgame.
Dave Wiegand can exchange 8 if he likes.
Adam Logan can play a triple-triple-triple without all three triples being in the same line.
Dave Wiegand is Gibsonized in a 15-game tournament with 15 to go.

But of course: although Jesus can walk on water, Chuck Norris can swim through land.

[millcake16]

Adam Logan can plan an 86-in-the-bag endgame.
Dave Wiegand can exchange 8 if he likes.
Adam Logan can play a triple-triple-triple without all three triples being in the same line.
Dave Wiegand is Gibsonized in a 15-game tournament with 15 to go.

But of course: although Jesus can walk on water, Chuck Norris can swim through land.

Some segue this is turning out to be.

[slipkin]

Some segue this is turning out to be.

Oops, you're right. PEOPLE, STAY ON TOPIC!



Thank you

[bnjy99]

Oops, you're right. PEOPLE, STAY ON TOPIC!

No... You stay on topic!!!
I brought my lucky charm to New York City, and went 11-4, and i just bombed the last two.

[Noctiluca]

Since we're making Chuck Norris... I mean David Wiegand Jokes,

1. Sometimes, for fun, David Wiegand tries to tie all of his games.
2. David Wiegand can pronounce and find the anagram for Winter's last name.
3. David Wiegand once had a 0-20 +5000 tournament and gained rating points.
4. David Wiegand played ChuckNorris without using a blank as a space.

Dave Wiegand doesn't lose. He hustles.
Dave Wiegand singlehandedly caused the ratings deflation by stealing everyone else's points.
Dave Wiegand doesn't play phonies. If his play is deemed invalid, Merriam-Webster immediately adds it to their dictionary. Zyzzyva automatically updates itself before Dave Wiegand gets to the challenge computer.
The English alphabet actually has 31 letters. Only Dave Wiegand knows the other 5.
Dave Wiegand once made the blank a bilabial click. He wrote ʘ on the designation slip.


What's this about staying on topic?

[cesar]

Adam Logan and Dave Wiegand once played a game. The world exploded.

[Noctiluca]

Dave Wiegand once drew a blank against Patrick Hodges.

[gplnd]

Adam Logan once gave a lecture on pre-endgame strategy to a group of School Scrabble competitors. There were no survivors.

[Noctiluca]

Dave Wiegand doesn't believe in the J.
Dave Wiegand once sat through Nationals without moving; only giving each opponent a grim stare for 25 minutes. He went 24-4 +1862.
Whenever Dave Wiegand plays the X, he sinks your battleship.

[bnjy99]

When Dave Wiegand says "hold", the whole room stops (including his clock)
When he says challenge, when they get back from checking, their opponent's play is mysteriously back on their rack.

[Noctiluca]

Dave Wiegand has a bowl of SamTiles every morning for breakfast.
Dave Wiegand solves the Jumbletime quizzes with his eyes closed.
Dave Wiegand once sneezed during a game. Every sound that came out was added to a separate dictionary. This dictionary is known as "Collins."

[gplnd]

Dave Wiegand once play KWYJIBO and the play came back acceptable.

[cesar]

Dave Wiegand once overdrew by three. His opponent threw in S??. Dave then scored 130 points on his next move.

[dewk]

everyone has the same amount of luck.

If luck is randomly distributed, it would be ridiculously unlikely for this to be true.

[slipkin]

everyone has the same amount of luck.

If luck is randomly distributed, it would be ridiculously unlikely for this to be true.

As the number of people and games increases, the likelihood of any person differing significantly in luck from any other person tends towards zero.

[dianagram]

You can't stop Dave Wiegand ... you can only hope to contain him.
Dave Wiegand could .... go .... all ... the ... way!
Dave Wiegand en fuego.
Dave Wiegand is cool like the other side of the pillow.
Dave Wiegand .... from way downtown ... bang!

[sjackson12]

everyone has the same amount of luck.

If luck is randomly distributed, it would be ridiculously unlikely for this to be true.

it's not...

[dewk]

Chuck Norris has Dave Wiegand pajamas.

[ataraxy]

After tournaments, Dave Wiegand doesn't post a list of bingos he played to LJ; instead, he posts a much shorter list entitled "bingos not played".

On a bet, Dave Wiegand once beat an expert in a game after spotting his opponent 500 points and both blanks.

Dave Wiegand once managed to fit two 16-letter words onto a standard sized 15x15 board in a single game. The second one was a 16 tile overlap with the first one.

Dave Wiegand doesn't track his equity lost per turn with Quackle. Instead, Quackle tracks its equity lost per turn relative to Dave's plays.

[cesar]

Dave Wiegand's expert opponent once drew all the power tiles on him. Wiegand only won by 100.

Whenever you ask Quackle to "Generate choices", it asks Dave Wiegand first.

Dave Wiegand once played PIZZAZZ as a natural.

Dave Wiegand once won a tournament by bingoing out with a phony, which his terrified opponent neglected to challenge.

Dave Wiegand goes through all the words in a couple hours before a major tournament.

Dave Wiegand once played U(N)AU for 82 points, keeping ERS?

If ever one of Dave Wiegand's opponents bingo, they are hit by 300 points within the next couple of turns. It is best to lie low and resign when you get the chance.

[Noctiluca]

After tournaments, Dave Wiegand doesn't post a list of bingos he played to LJ; instead, he posts a much shorter list entitled "bingos not played".

ha! Best one so far.

I feel a little bad for threadjacking the luck discussion, but I guess it would be too late to create a separate thread for Dave Wiegand facts.

Just to keep things fair, every time Dave Wiegand bingos, his opponent gets the 50-point bonus.
Dave Wiegand routinely makes plays across an invisible premium square called "Triple Game Score."
Someone once coffeehoused against Dave Wiegand. Key word: once.

[bnjy99]

David Wiegand has to remind his opponents not to add 50 points to their scores when doesn't bingo

[gcviebranz]

Dave Wiegand doesn't study words, he ushers them into his brain at knifepoint.
Dave Wiegand doesn't square his tiles, he dumps them on the board and they scurry in fear from H8.
When Dave Wiegand misses a bingo, that word is no longer valid for anybody.

[Noctiluca]

"Mr. 770" Mark Landsberg didn't earn his nickname by scoring 770 points in a game. He earned it by holding Dave Wiegand to only 770 points, his lowest score ever.

The longest word in English is a 189,819-letter chemical name for the protein connectin. Dave Wiegand just advanced this word to Cardbox 41 this morning.

Dave Wiegand doesn't track tiles or cumulative score. He already has these decided before the game starts.

[bnjy99]

David Wiegand told Joe Bihlmeyer not to break 1800... or else... Joe is now so scared that he is afraid to play in any tournaments

[arenasnow]

Dave Wiegand can exchange an S from a high-probability bingo rack missing an extremely common bingo and still win the game against his expert opposition.

[slipkin]

Dave Wiegand can exchange an S from a high-probability bingo rack missing an extremely common bingo and still win the game against his expert opposition.

That is so awesome.

[gplnd]

Reno MLK expected wins:

1. Joey Mallick 1906 ME 13.1
2. Dave Wiegand 1891 OR ALL
3. Peter Armstrong 1870 WI 12.6
4. Carl Johnson 1857 OR 12.4
5. Kenji Matsumoto 1856 MA 12.4
6. Jerry Lerman 1830 CA 12.1
7. Nigel Peltier 1828 WA 12.0
8. Joe Dackman 1827 NV 12.0
9. Lisa Odom 1823 MN 12.0
10. Conrad Basse 1819 CA 11.9

[Noctiluca]

Dave Wiegand once started with 25:00 minutes on his clock and finished with 48:18.

Dave Wiegand once hooked up with Robin Pollock Daniel. Nine months later, she gave birth to the Oxford English Dictionary.

Kenji once called Dave Wiegand "a good player."

Dave Wiegand once played out on his opening play.

Dave Wiegand is also the four-time defending Candyland champion.

Scrabble ranks between skiing and auto racing in number of participant fatalities, all due to Dave Wiegand.

[Zoril46]

I do not believe in luck. I believe that each person has the same chance to win. It boils down to who plays better. There are other factors that may appear to a player that they have good or bad luck. One factor in play is the physical aspect. If a player is ill or did not have a good nights rest then it is almost impossible for them to win many games. Skill is the ultimate factor whether a player will win or not.
I remember a game in a recent tournament that I played in where I was just so physically tired that I did not care what plays I made. At first I made mistakes in challenging unawares but then toward the end of the game I just did not care anymore so I ended up (on purpose) making phonies and stupid plays. I was having fun losing because I had given up hope of winning.

[NotGreen]

In the 2007 BAT I spotted a New York Mets (no comments, Phillies phans) tile bag on a Division 4 table. I rubbed it for good luck before every game. I took second place in the division. Richard Ferrara took first. The owner of the NYMets tile bag? Richard Ferrera, who also played every game in a Mets jersey.

I think the ritual provided a little relaxation and cheered me up, which improved my play, but did not improve my luck, per se.

As for why Mets paraphernalia cannot improve the luck or playing ability of the actual New York Mets, I cannot say.

-Leigh Bernstein

[jqxzdoc]

TRUE Wiegand story:

i opened with a bingo on turn 1, only to have him play siloxane for 110 through the 'o'
then i binged with biotite
then i triple-tripled

then he binged a coupla times

when all was said and done, after drawing everything, 9x-ing him, and binging twice besides, i only won by 1 point -- we each had over 500 !!!

ian

[Noctiluca]

TRUE Wiegand story:

i opened with a bingo on turn 1, only to have him play siloxane for 110 through the 'o'
then i binged with biotite
then i triple-tripled

then he binged a coupla times

when all was said and done, after drawing everything, 9x-ing him, and binging twice besides, i only won by 1 point -- we each had over 500 !!!

ian

And one of the greatest games ever played, in my opinion. Kudos to both of you. Right up there with the Edley-BriCap SHOWBIZ/TRAILSIDE game and Logan vs. Maven (where Maven played out with MOUTHPART).