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#player1 Mike_Early Mike Early
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Mike_Early: AEEGNV 8C AVENGE +28 28
>Jim_Burlant: ABEOSTW F6 WO. +14 14
#note Yuck. The obvious BOW 9A yields such bad board position - play for 21, give back tons more - really didn't seem worth it. I considered NOW F8 (the sim runner up, 3 points down on 9A BOW) but didn't like the easy backhooks on the 2x2 line, as I thought it too likely he would have drawn a T. This was the compromise. 9A BOW wins; 7H BOW (I didn't like the board position) is runner up, in a statistical tie with this choice and F8 NOW for second place honors.
>Mike_Early: DEEELNO -DEEELN +0 28
>Jim_Burlant: ABENSTW E7 W.B +13 27
#note Had no idea there was an 8 in this rack; NEWSBEAT plays at E7 and scores 78. If you don't know the bingo this or C7 WAB are the best plays.
>Mike_Early: EFV C7 F.VE +18 46
>Jim_Burlant: AENOSTU 11C SOUTANE +75 102
#note Despite the previous turn's whiff, this wins 67% in a short 2-ply sim.
>Mike_Early: CELT I9 EL.CT +9 55
>Jim_Burlant: DDGIIIY 6F .IDDY +21 123
#note Best - the other play worth making is 13E DIGIT.
>Mike_Early: AQ 13G QA. +22 77
>Jim_Burlant: AAGIIUX 14E IXIA +40 163
#note I absolutely hated the board position with this play, but didn't think the rack left me a whole lot of choice. And, well, 40 points is 40 points. Quackle agrees. XI scores 36 but the AAGIU leave is *so* beyond awful that despite the safer board positoin, Championship Player docks me 21 points relative to this choice, which it says is best.
>Mike_Early: EHTY 15H HYTE +48 125
>Jim_Burlant: AGHILMU 12D HM +28 191
#note Didn't know the best rack cleaners here: 5J MUGHAL and B2 HAMULI score 31 and clear this garbage out. This is the second best scoring option available (and it's not even one of the original kibbitzer choices) but it's a poor choice because it doesn't clean out all the garbage.
>Mike_Early: AIIIMPU -AIII +0 125
>Jim_Burlant: AGILLNU K9 LINGUA. +16 207
#note Once again - you have to know the word to play it. I saw the 7, LINGUAL, but it's a no-go. The only playable bingo is the 5500-range LINGULAE, which I've never seen played. Even with this blunder I'm 85% to win.
>Mike_Early: ?EEGNOS B1 SOiGNEE +73 198
#note Best bingo for Mike, and this brings his winning chances up to 33% in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: AJKLNRU A7 KNUR +34 241
#note For some reason, talked myself out of KNURL, which is best. But taking out the A column was definitely the right play.
>Mike_Early: AEFMO H1 FOAME. +45 243
>Jim_Burlant: AEJLPRS 15A JAPES +47 288
#note Right idea, with the wrong execution. A big part of the challenge of playing Mike is that, as others have observed, he plays speed Scrabble, and one casualty of this was that my tracking wasn't on target. It's certainly not bad to play for 47 here, but Quackle says it's worth it to sacrifice the 6 points by playing JARLS 15A for 41, and a look at the tile pool shows why: (a) RRRR unseen, and (b) with only 2 E's unseen with the bag down to 24, the E in my rack is a premium tile and I need to hold it. This minor equity slip wound up costing me the game.
>Mike_Early: IIIOOOO -OOO +0 243
#note For those of you keeping track, this is Mike's THIRD exchange this game.
>Jim_Burlant: DILNORS 13A LIDO +16 304
#note If I make the right play of JARLS on the previous turn, I'd be sitting on DEINOPS and would play POISONED on row 2 for 76. Instead, I have no options that even score as many as 22 points. If I had known what was going to come, I'd have played the kibbitzer's first choice of I3 DILDO. I felt that with the blank out, if I defended rows 2 - 5, he could bingo down the L column and it might be enough to do me in, so I figured I'd take the chance of leaving 2 lines open. 4H MILORD wins the sim; this is mid-pack winning 82%. MILORD wins 89. This choice sealed my fate.
>Mike_Early: ?AIRTTZ 3F TZ.RITzA +104 347
#note Mike is now winnning 7
>Jim_Burlant: ADLNRRS - +0 304
#note Given this situation, how sure about this do I have to be to let this go? I felt that for 104 points he was going to have to show me it was good, so I challenged. Unsuccessfully. As for what Q says I should have done: 12K GNARR, 3A DIRL and 12K GRAND are Q's top choices and they win a hair over 33%. Losing my turn takes my chances down to 6%.
>Mike_Early: IP 2J PI +22 369
>Jim_Burlant: ADLNRRS 1K LARD +9 313
#note Not one of the original choices, this play actually increases my winning chances from 6% to 22% and sims with the highest valuation. 12K GNARR is still the favorite.
>Mike_Early: EIOOR 5J OORIE +15 384
>Jim_Burlant: BENRRSU O1 SNUB +45 358
>Mike_Early: CIOT 9K .OTIC +8 392
>Mike_Early: (ERR) +6 398
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