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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Rachel_Knapp Rachel Knapp
>Jim_Burlant: ACORRRW 8G CARROW +30 30
#note Thought this might be phony but Rachel didn't so much as flinch. It also beats the legitimate options hands-down.
>Rachel_Knapp: EIRU K8 .URIE +10 10
>Jim_Burlant: ADGILRS 12I GI.D +12 42
#note Everything is as good as anything else here; this sims within 2 points of L12 DIG, the sim winner.
>Rachel_Knapp: EEGIRV J2 GRIEVE. +23 33
>Jim_Burlant: ADEELRS 5D RELEAS.D +86 128
#note Or RESEALED.
>Rachel_Knapp: AIPUY D2 PYU.IA +22 55
>Jim_Burlant: AACEEMO 11D CAEOMA +23 151
#note One of the many signs it's not your day to do well: when your opponent lets something go they otherwise would challenge because it either gives them a big play they wouldn't have had, or they have a big play coming back and can't risk losing it. Rachel held this for a bit before stating that 23 pts just weren't enough to justify challenging the play. Too bad for me, as this is legit. I'm winning 88% with this choice. Either this Or 3H OCREAE are the two best choices and both are equally strong plays in Quackle's eyes.
>Rachel_Knapp: EEHIIST 2H EI.HTIES +74 129
#note This brings Rachel's winning chances up to 23%...but not for long.
>Jim_Burlant: AABDEFL 13C FADABLE +89 240
#note Wasn't entirely sure this was good, but figured it was worth the risk because, even if it came off, worst case I had a minimum of 36 coming back at 1F on the next turn or 47 with FLAB 10F if that still was open. It is good, and it wins 93%.
>Rachel_Knapp: KNOO 1F NOOK +36 165
>Jim_Burlant: JNNQTTT H4 Q.T +22 262
#note Interesting - Q says my best options are a variety of exchanges and this play; it says the 7C placement is virtually identical. All win the same percentage (just under 82) but this is a six-point dog in the sim. Perhaps this game turns out differently if I played at 7C, and you'll see why soon. Regardless of whether you like my play, the ensuing tile collapse has to be seen to be believed.
>Rachel_Knapp: DEFS 8A FEDS +40 205
#note What does she do with this if I had played QAT 7C on the previous turn?
>Jim_Burlant: JLNNNTT M1 J.NN +22 284
#note This is best - despite giving back potential JOE comebacks the 22 pts and 3 tiles turned make it worthwhile for me to push through this. Q agrees. Exchange 7 is a close runner up. The unseen pool is just under 50% vowels...surely I should be able to land an A, E, I, or O, right? I've made the best play possible on my last 3 turns and my winning chances have fallen from 95 to 77%. What's hard to believe is that, from this point forward the game becomes unwinnable - all due to a mild equity slip on my previous turn.
>Rachel_Knapp: ALMNORS B3 ALMON.RS +64 269
#note The sim says Rachel is now winning 28% with this, the only playable bingo.
>Jim_Burlant: ILNTTTY A1 TIT +11 295
#note Not only did that bingo hurt scorewise, but it blocked my intended rack dump of FLINTY. I couldn't think of SLITTY, was pretty sure SNITTY* was bogus (it's phony) and my head exploded trying to figure this position out. What's my biggest threat? WIZ A1? An X bomb at 14E? A blank bingo down the O column? I opted for this using the following logic: I can't clear the rack, I can't score, but I can get rid of 2 t's and take out a potential WIZ A1 for 55 in the process. And if I land an A, E, or O, I may have 30 or thereabouts coming back with the Y on the next turn. This wins a hair over 50%, and it sims within 1-1/2 points of E4 NETT/TENT, the best plays.
>Rachel_Knapp: OOX 14E OXO +58 327
>Jim_Burlant: BLNTUYZ 15G BLUNT +28 323
#note And I flat out whiff on a power word I frequently miss, YUTZ. And while I'm not copping a plea for missing it, believe it or not even if I find YUTZ, I still lose this game. I replayed the game assuming I found it, giving myself what I considered the best-case 4 of 5 replacement tiles I drew in the actual game. She comes back with JOE, I probably fish off a B at 10F. Knowing that her ensuing rack was EHITU??, even against a likely play of tITHE 15A and not Quackle's suggested plays, there is no win as my one-vowel rack just doesn't give me enough flexibility to counter her remaining blank. If I play intelligently I lose by 50 - 60 points assuming she takes out 15A as she indicated she would have. But my own creativity blows up the spread quite comically, as you'll see.
>Rachel_Knapp: AEHNOPW 1M .OE +38 365
>Jim_Burlant: GINPWYZ 8G ......ING +45 368
#note I saw ZING 15B but feilt that it didn't win the game and, if the blanks were still at large this game was wide open. This was risky but I felt that, if she had indeed left the blanks in the bag, this could give me the opening I needed to unload all thiis clunk. But this didn't quite work out...
>Rachel_Knapp: ??EHITU O8 .UsHIEsT +83 448
>Rachel_Knapp: (APVWYZ) +52 500
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