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#player1 Paul_Holser Paul Holser
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Paul_Holser: ARTUY 8D YURTA +24 24
>Jim_Burlant: ADIIRTT D2 ARIDIT. +22 22
#note Though it takes a few hundred 2-ply iterations to percolate up to the top, this is the clear sim winner. D4 DIRTY and D8 YTTRIA are runners-up by a little more than 3 points.
>Paul_Holser: DEGNOPU -DEGNO +0 24
>Jim_Burlant: AEEGHIT 3B HE.ITAGE +78 100
#note Best.
>Paul_Holser: EMRT B2 T.ERM +32 56
>Jim_Burlant: IOOORSY H1 YO.I +27 127
#note The sim prefers ORGY in the same location by 1-1/2 points after 1100 iterations. I didn't even consider plays that shed the R due to the unbalanced nature of this rack.
>Paul_Holser: ENTW 5H NEWT +23 79
>Jim_Burlant: JLOOORS 6I LOO +16 143
#note Getting nervous about leaving the A column undefended but my post-bingo racks haven't allowed me to do anything about that. I saw no really good options, and Quackle confirms that. In the absence of good scoring plays, I figured I should just unload as many o's as possible. The sim says this is best, and that 1F JOY and F1 JOT are also strong choices.
>Paul_Holser: BHU A6 HUB +31 110
>Jim_Burlant: CIJORST L1 COIRS +28 171
#note Mistake. L2 JOIST is the sim winner and definitely the best play. I was too busy looking for plays that doubled one of my counters at L1.
>Paul_Holser: DEN E2 D.NE +21 131
>Jim_Burlant: EFJNSTZ 3K F.Z +30 201
#note The sim is mildly conflicted here. F6 NERTZ apparently wins the most but this play (the win % runner up) sims 1-1/2 points higher. Both plays win just over 81%.
>Paul_Holser: IQ A1 QI +35 166
>Jim_Burlant: ?EJNRST H7 T.J +10 211
#note Awesome draw! There are no 7's in this rack and the only 2 8's in EJNRST?, SERJEANT and JOINTERS, don't play. This is an odd sim result - the highest valuation play is F6 JaR, which burns the blank but only scores 25. But H7 RAJ, H7 JAR, H7 JANE, and this choice all sim within 2 points of each other and beat out JaR for sim winner honors. I wanted to force him to open, as I was sitting on a virtually guaranteed bingo on the next turn and even if he was able to bingo, it was going to have to open something up for me to probably bingo back.
>Paul_Holser: AFL 1L .ALF +27 193
>Jim_Burlant: ?AENRSU O1 .URANoSE +83 294
#note FURNAcES wins the equity battle but any of the O1 bingos score 83. I'm winning 93%.
>Paul_Holser: BINU F7 B.UIN +9 202
>Jim_Burlant: EENOPSX E10 POX +32 326
#note Took an unusually long time on this position. I seriously considered 12B EXPOSE and 12B EXPOS. I rejected them because I worst-cased it and thought he could still play through them and open an S hook on row 15 I might not be able to do anything about. While I wanted to turn more tiles I thought this might nullify any S hook he was trying to set up. If the sim is to be believed, it's just theoretical equity that's at stake; this play, along with any of the others I considered, wins > 99%. Championship Player's take on this position is different from the simulator; it says this is the second best choice, with 12B EXPOSE as the winner.
>Paul_Holser: CDEI D11 CEDI +37 239
>Jim_Burlant: AEEKNNS C12 KEA +36 362
#note Once again, the sim and Championship Player diverge. The 2-ply sim likes this best. Championship Player says I should burn the S to play SNEAK 15D. To do that, I'd have had to have been more than 50% sure of the CEDI back hook; with this much of a lead I felt that it was prudent to err on the side of caution.
>Paul_Holser: EGL G10 GEL +16 255
>Jim_Burlant: ADENNPS 13G SPANNED +80 442
#note Still erring on the side of caution. Obviously 15D is the right placement, since it scores 92, but it's just spread at this point; I now cannot lose this game.
>Paul_Holser: LMOO 12I LOOM +26 281
>Jim_Burlant: AEGIRVW N8 WIVE +23 465
#note Don't know why I didn't play the R. Whoops. The play here is WAIVE 14B.
>Paul_Holser: ?AEOSV 15D SOAVEs +36 317
>Paul_Holser: (AGR) +8 325
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