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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Stephen_Sneed Stephen Sneed
>Jim_Burlant: AAEHRUZ 8D HAZER +42 42
#note Not thrilled with the AU leave but felt it was too many points to give up. Close call - 8H AZURE, the runner up, sims roughly 1 point down.
>Stephen_Sneed: AGNORRS G3 GROAN.RS +63 63
#note Best bingo for Stephen is I2 GARRONS.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AFMOUX 9C FOX +31 73
#note Three plays lead the pack, with this choice among them; the other two are 6F FAUX, and 9C FAX. The sim nominally prefers 6F FAUX for 22 - I felt that 9 points were a little too much to give up to unload the U. I'd give up 5 or 6 points, but not 10.
>Stephen_Sneed: OPT 7C POT +24 87
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADLLMU 6F M.UL +12 85
#note Thpought I might have missed something, but both 8's (MU(R)ALLeD and ALL(O)DiUM are way beyond the probability range I've studied. I didn't know must of the choices here, which really restricted my options.
>Stephen_Sneed: BNNOU 4C UNBO.N +18 105
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADILTV C3 L.V +12 97
#note There are no playable bingos here. The sim likes this, and it doesn't even take 100 iteratinos to percolate to the top of the heap. Other options are 5I AVID and 10E IDS. I'd rather unload the V, and I like ADIT? as a leave.
>Stephen_Sneed: AI 10E AI. +16 121
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADDEIT 7I IoDATED +63 160
#note Best bingo here is 5I AuDITEd. I didn't see it.
>Stephen_Sneed: ITU O7 .UIT +15 136
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEJPY 6L YEP +31 191
#note Couldn't think of K7 DEEJAY, which is definitely better than this; saw K2 JEEPED but didn't like keeping the Y. This chioce sims 3rd, and it unexpectedly set him up to make the best play anyone made on me this whole tournament.
>Stephen_Sneed: ?EIIOSS M2 SOcI..IES +68 204
#note N9 mEIOSIS sims better (marginally), but so what? This is an incredibly nice find by Stephen. He's winning 47% with this choice.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEEEJN L10 AJEE +24 215
#note Not thrilled about opening up the southeast quadrant, but my rack really leaves me no choice, and the sim agrees. Nothing else sims within 2-1/2 points.
>Stephen_Sneed: IO E3 O.I +10 214
>Jim_Burlant: ABENQTW 2J QAT. +33 248
#note Best - nothing else sims within 7 points, and I'm winning 61%.
>Stephen_Sneed: AT 11J TA. +20 234
>Jim_Burlant: BEENRVW 13I VEN.ER +26 274
#note Quackle doesn't like this a whole lot, presumably due to the S hook down the O column. I was more concerned that Stephen was getting very close to a bingo given his previous 2 plays; I wasn't as concerned about possible O15 plays. Quackle disagrees, preferring WEBER 13I. I'd rather shut down and force him to possibly have to break up his racks to make openings that I'll have to try to shut down.
>Stephen_Sneed: CLU N11 CU.L +12 246
>Jim_Burlant: BEEGHNW J9 BE.W.EN +16 290
#note This was a TOUGH position. Stephen's last play made it pretty obvious he was sitting on an S, and I couldn't do anything to take out O15. So now what? I figured that all I could do was to force him to play through something and limit him. It took me several minutes to find this play and I really liked it. So how does it stack up? When simmed against a random rack, it takes a pounding, conceding almost 20 equity to 4J WENCH. When I reran the sim against an inferred rack of AGINRST (Stephen told me after the game that this was his rack), nothing sims within 4 points of this play. Stephen told me post-mortem that he thought this was the best play either side made the whole game. In retrospect this was one of several very smart late-game decisions I made.
>Stephen_Sneed: AGINRST 15E GRATI. +21 267
#note Stephen was absolutely correct to make this play; it wasn't one of Quackle's original choices, but it wins the sim hands down. He's winning 18%, but I'm still feeling far from safe here.
>Jim_Burlant: ACDFGKW 10I W.K.. +18 308
#note Another very difficult position. This isn't one of the original quackle choices but it sims quite respectably. I saw L6 YAK but felt it didn't turn enough of the rack, and 4K WACK would have been suicidal given (a) the consonant heavy tile pool and (b) the unseen Y. The problem with O14 AW was that the leave was so awful and vowels so scarce that I felt I couldn't afford to play the board here; I felt I needed a more workable rack for the end game. Against a random rack the sim is consistent, with exchange DFGW the winner and this choice of WEKAS a close second. Against an inferred SH, this play sims number 1, with O14 AW simming with higher valuation but 1% fewer winning chances.
>Stephen_Sneed: HMOS 15L MOSH +43 310
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ACDFGIY 3I FID +25 333
#note Quackle likes K1 FACIA leaving DGY; I'd rather take out the Q underlap. FACIA allegedly has the best win percentage, but this play sims with highest valuation. Turns out the last letter in the bag was an E.
>Stephen_Sneed: DEILNOR C9 .ID +7 317
#note Besides the easy out in two he's setting up for himself, Stephen told me he was hoping on hope to lure me into a mistake: seeing my final rack of CAGEY, he was hoping I would try to put down FIDE*/CAGEY as an out play. I knew not to take the bait.
>Jim_Burlant: ACEGY K1 C..GE +18 351
#note I saw CADGY and was 90% sure of it; in this situation, I was only going to put down a play I was 100% sure of unless I couldn't win otherwise. Once I triple checked the tracking and verified that CADGE still won, I went with the sure bet. CADGY K1 is definitely best.
>Stephen_Sneed: ELNOR B10 LONER +21 338
>Stephen_Sneed: (AY) +10 348
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