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#player1 Dielle_Saldanha Dielle Saldanha
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Dielle_Saldanha: ?DEEORV 8B cOVERED +78 78
#note Ouch.
>Jim_Burlant: AEIPRRU F6 PU.R +12 12
#note This play - which was not one of the original Quackle choices - sims quite respectably behind 7G PIU (which I rejected because I didn't want to leave myself duplicated R's) and D4 UPRIVER (which I didn't see).
>Dielle_Saldanha: EN G7 N.E +11 89
>Jim_Burlant: AEIIJRT D6 JI.IER +16 28
#note A J word that I know but almost always miss is JIAO.C5 JIAO and C7 JO are sim winners, with "exchange IJ" and "Exchange IIJ" close behind. With Dielle having just fished off NE, I felt she was too close to a bingo to be leaving myself duplicated I's, which is why I rejected JEE E7 23. And, not seeing JIAO, I thought I should just turn as much of the rack as I could and draw 5 to AT. I didn't like this play when I made it but couldn't find the right play.
>Dielle_Saldanha: AEWYY C10 YAWEY +35 124
>Jim_Burlant: ADFIOTU B13 FOU +27 55
#note Blinded to good plays because of the presence of the U. E11 FOU wins the sim, and this choice is only a 3-point dog. Despite the 13 extra points FADO B11 scores, Quackle insists on my getting rid of the U. But, with what this did to the board, the game would detour into the bizarro realm in a couple of turns.
>Dielle_Saldanha: AG B10 AG +17 141
>Jim_Burlant: ADIMOQT -OQ +0 55
#note Hmmm. My problems with any of the multiple plays available were that (a) they probably gave back 25 or more and (b) I might not be able to play the Q on my next turn, either. So I felt I might as well throw OQ back into the bag and keep both the D and M so I could back-hook NEE. Quackle prefers MODI 10G, but I disagree - like I said, where am I going to play the Q after she undoubtedly plays through or takes MODI hooks away on her next turn? On a win percentage basis, MODI wins 9.9%, and this play wins 9.3%. This isn't one of the original Quackle choices but it sims 4th best, albeit 7 - 8 points down to 10G MODI, the sim winner. I didn't consider MODI, as I would have wanted to keep QI together (even with 6 I's unseen). I rejected MO, MI, MOD, MA, and MAD for the reasons above.
>Dielle_Saldanha: ACINOST 7F ..ACTIONS +68 209
>Dielle_Saldanha: ACINOST -- -68 141
>Jim_Burlant: ADIIMST A11 AI +8 63
#note Had I put down almost any play (except MODI, which I didn't consider) on the last turn, she would have been able to put down her bingo and even with a best-case comeback play of something like QAID(S) for 45, I'd still find myself down by over 100. Right now I'm still within a bingo...but I'm in a box. This play, which opens nothing up for her, does close my gap by 9 points. At the time, the only thing I could see fit to do was make this a game of chicken: she was going to have to both open up the board AND break up her rack before I did anything. This was about the only play I could find that didn't give her a bingo (I didn't know AMIDIC). And I'm still loath to part with my DM for the NEE back-hooks. This did make for a rather unusual game.
>Dielle_Saldanha: ACINOST 6B TA. +12 153
#note Quackle prefers fishing off the C to make COY for 8. In either case she's at 89% winning chances.
>Jim_Burlant: DDIKMST C5 M.K. +26 89
#note This is best, crawling back up to 14% winning chances. Not happy about parting with my M, but there were too many points to pass up here. E11 SKID might normally be worth consideration, but not when I know she's just drawn 2 to COINS.
>Dielle_Saldanha: CILNOSV -DEHL +0 153
>Jim_Burlant: DDIORST -DO +0 89
#note Still boxed in. I saw the obvious dumps like DIDO 10G and still was in the mindset that I had to force her to open - a whoever-opens-loses deal. If I had a scoring play I'd put it down. But I didn't see the utility in playing for cheap and probably giving back more, especially with how many opponents had been drawing direcly into bingos off of exchanges against me this particular day. The only safe play I saw, FED 13B, left me a combo (DIORST) that I wasn't thrilled with. I felt that if she could take the doughnut, I could, too. I felt that 7 points was essentially a passed turn, especially if she hit something big and I had another bad draw. Nowhere to balance the rack to my satisfaction, nowhere to score enough to justify burning the S (sorry, SOD E11 doesn't cut it). So I continue to play the game of chicken. As for the sim results: against an inferred rack of COINS, the best play is 13B FED, which wins just shy of 16%. This choice wins 13.5%. And the choice not to open bears fruit on the next turn, though I do pay later for not putting down FED, which is the play I really should have made here.
>Dielle_Saldanha: GHS 15A G.SH +51 204
>Dielle_Saldanha: GHS -- -51 153
>Jim_Burlant: DIRRSTU -RU +0 89
#note I almost couldn't keep a straight face when she put that down, and I know my tone of voice had to have made it clear how silly the play looked when I called, "Hold!" By this point I was having to tell myself to calm down...but not out of frustration. Rather, I was literally on the verge of laughing at how this strange this game was becoming. My last exchange obviously didn't didn't go well at all...but it was clear she didn't have anything good, so I figured I could get away with another exchange. Yeah, I'd like to be scoring, but I'm not losing ground. Quackle again likes a bunch of dumps that give her a nice easy place to hook her S. The only play that was worthwhile was 10A RAYED, which I didn't look for. And I will not part with my D until this board opens up some more. I've got one of only a handful of tiles that hooks at G10 - why sacrifice it cheap on this board? RAYED wins 22%, this play wins 18%.
>Dielle_Saldanha: GHIN B2 NIGH. +25 178
>Jim_Burlant: DIILRST 10G DIRL +12 101
#note Now that she's opened, I can open. The stalemate is over.
>Dielle_Saldanha: LOS E11 SOL +18 196
#note And if I play FED 3 turns back, she can't get this down. While 18 for SOL doesn't hurt, what follows does.
>Jim_Burlant: ABIOSTT A1 BOTA +29 130
#note Too bad she didn't hang an N. This is clearly best, at 13% winning chances. At the time I was a little surprised she ditched the S but it's clear in retrospect she was probably sitting on a pair of them.
>Dielle_Saldanha: IWZ F12 WIZ +42 238
#note Ouch.
>Jim_Burlant: DILSSTV -LSV +0 130
#note Quackle's top 3 choices are exchange DSV, exchange DLV, and this. I'd rather keep DIST than LIST. And my exchange works quite nicely, as you'll see in a second. I'm now at 3% winning chances.
>Dielle_Saldanha: QSU K10 SUQ +30 268
>Jim_Burlant: CDEIOST 13I CESTOID +89 219
#note Best, now back up to 9% winning chances.
>Dielle_Saldanha: MOP C1 MOP +27 295
>Jim_Burlant: ABEEHOT O8 HOTBE. +39 258
#note This was actually a pleasant surprise: while there were no bingos in it, for the first time in what felt like a while, I had actually drawn a post-bingo rack that wouldn't require 3 turns just to clean out the garbage. This play sims best, at 12%, with BATHED and BEHEAD also worth consideration. But my already-slim winning chances were about to go downhill fast.
>Dielle_Saldanha: ACEELNR N3 RECLEAN +68 363
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEGIIV 12K .I +26 284
#note Spent a long time on this turn trying to find the 8 that wasn't there; the only thing I did see were the 9's, VIGILANCE and VIGILANTE. I also wanted to open up row 15 simply so she couldn't kill rows 3 and 4 with a play down the M column...but couldn't do it. 6I VAGILE wins the sim with 4J vegie a close second. I didn't like my play of QI but I felt that I couldn't turn down 26.
>Dielle_Saldanha: LRUX 4K LUR.X +40 403
#note Ouch.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEGIOV M1 AVE. +18 302
#note Not sure I wrote this rack down correctly. Unable to find anything I was happy with to open up row 15 for a hook she couldn't block, I reluctantly put this down, and told her, "Have fun!"
>Dielle_Saldanha: DEFST 1J DEF.TS +42 445
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEGINO 2E AGONIEs +69 371
#note Dielle looked momentarily annoyed when this came down. But even if she had played FATS instead of DEFATS, I'd have still been able to get down AGONIsE on row 3. At least it made the spread respectable. While the outcome was disappointing, this game was still a source of amusement in a Main Event that had been sorely lacking in it. And even now I'm still laughing about it.
>Jim_Burlant: (ANNT) +8 379
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