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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Dave_Johnson Dave Johnson
>Jim_Burlant: ACEIOSU -OU +0 0
#note Quackle's preferred plays in order: Exchange IOU; 8G CIAO; Exchange AOU; and this choice. It docks me me roughly 2 points for this choice.
>Dave_Johnson: EFKR 8E KERF +22 22
>Jim_Burlant: AACEISU F8 .AU +5 5
#note Gee, that really helped, didn't it? This is not one of the original choices, but this play wins the sim, at 43%.
>Dave_Johnson: BINR E4 BRIN. +22 44
>Jim_Burlant: ACEIRSY D3 YA +18 23
#note Missed G7 CRY, which is clearly best. This is a mediocre choice, though I get away with it and am rewarded (somewhat) for it twice during the game.
>Dave_Johnson: IPX 11D PIX +35 79
>Jim_Burlant: CEEIORS 12A CORE +26 49
#note I was starting to feel pressure to score at this point. The fishes just weren't working and I felt I'd be better off opening things up a little more and turning a few tiles while I kept my S. Quackle prefers C2 COSIE by roughly 3 points; I wanted to keep the S.
>Dave_Johnson: OWY A12 .OWY +36 115
>Jim_Burlant: AACEIPS C2 PAC +31 80
#note Close - Quackle says I should dump the other A for 2 more points, docking me nearly 7 (?) points for this choice. PACA C2 is the sim winner.
>Dave_Johnson: DEL B11 L.DE +23 138
>Jim_Burlant: AAEGIIS 7G AI +11 91
#note 5C AGRIA, which I didn't know, is the sim winner. This choice is second, albeit at a huge equity loss. But this worked out quite nicely.
>Dave_Johnson: DV 6D V.D +11 149
>Jim_Burlant: AEGINST 5E .ANGIEST +71 162
#note Best bingo. Back in the game, at 47% winning chances.
>Dave_Johnson: DEJOT L3 JO.TED +32 181
>Jim_Burlant: ABEEISZ 8L .AZE +42 204
#note Whiffed on K7 BAIZE, the sim winner. This choice sims second, roughly 3 points down. I'm at 56% now. First time this game I've been over 50.
>Dave_Johnson: AET 9M EAT +20 201
>Jim_Burlant: BEGIMSU B1 BUG +27 231
#note No bingos in my GUMBIES rack, dammit! :-) This play sims best. Also worth consideration are B1 BUM or B1 BUMS 40 - they all sim interchangeably with each other. I prefer to unload the G and keep the MS. I'm at 64% right now.
>Dave_Johnson: EOV M2 VOE +32 233
>Jim_Burlant: EGILMSU 13D GUM +12 243
#note This was a critical position - I considered 2M VUG/ VUM but didn't like them - I didn't like playing for 14 or 16 and giving him 25 back as close as this game was. This was short-sighted of me, as opening up O1 would counter the spot open at H1. Anyway - I then saw this, and felt that it really didn't open up much that wasn't already there - from this pool, PE takes A, D, E, H, N, R, S, T, and W back-hooks - so I didn't feel I was really screwing myself. Quackle's first choice, which I didn't see, was I3 ILIUM, which wins 52%. This position was a game changer, and not in a good way. This choice, which sims at 48% and change, sims 5 points down on ILIUM and 3 points down on VUM 2M. And I was about to be punished severely.
>Dave_Johnson: ?AINOOO 14F OOgONIA +66 299
>Jim_Burlant: EHILNSW 15L WHEN +51 294
#note WHIN in the same location sims best, this is second, roughly 1-1/2 points down due to the leave. I'm at 30%.
>Dave_Johnson: Q K13 Q. +11 310
>Jim_Burlant: FILNRSU H1 FLUN. +30 324
#note Yet another U. This sims best. And when I saw my next rack of AEHIRST, I thought that I could still pull the comeback, so long as he didn't bingo down the J column. I can't read anything into the fact that he took several minutes on his turn before dumping the Q for 11 on this board, can I? I'm back to 40%...but my chances are about to take a major dive.
>Dave_Johnson: ?EIILLR J2 LIv.LIER +61 371
#note Incorrectly scored as 63.
>Jim_Burlant: AEHIRST H12 HA.S +30 354
#note Well, what now? A1 AH sims with highest valuation and wins the sim. I was hoping against hope he drew dreck and that I could draw into the miracle bingo that won the game. Instead, I threw gasoline on the fire.
>Dave_Johnson: DEIORST 11H STORIED +73 444
#note Ouch.
>Jim_Burlant: EIMNRTT 12L TRET +19 373
#note Let's pretend that I played AH 1A on my last turn. Since I drew MNT, that meant I had 3 possible racks this turn (since I can't remember which tiles came out in which order): EIMNRST, EIMRSTT, EINRSTT. I used Quackle to replay the game with each of those racks since I knew he had drawn STORIED out of the bag...and Quackle verified that I didn't have a win. Granted, I don't lose by 90-some points in any of those scenarios, but his probable comeback to AH would have been TRIODE15E 36, and if he finds that (I found it, I'm sure 1850's Dave would) I don't have a win. I lose by roughly 20 points, give or take, in each of those scenarios. But to me, that's not playing for the win.
>Dave_Johnson: S 4B S... +15 459
>Dave_Johnson: (IMN) +10 469
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