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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Eric_Harshbarger Eric Harshbarger
#player2 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
>Eric_Harshbarger: EFHIT 8H THIEF +30 30
>David_Weisberg: AGINNQV 7G QI +23 23
#note I wanted to possibly play J5 VINING 16, but wasn't sure of it. QI in either spot for 23 does a little better. However, the top simming play is off the wall - J7 QI 11! It sims 3 points better than my placement of QI, the next best choice. While my opponent averages only 3 less on the next turn after J7, I average 10 more on the next turn with J7 vs 9G. According to the sim, I bingo 26% of the time after J7 compared to just 7% for 9G. Excepr for VANNING, all the bingos are 8s, and I don't know how I'm supposed to play them so often, so I'm stumped by this.
>Eric_Harshbarger: AILMNTU J7 M.NUTIAL +64 94
>David_Weisberg: AAEGNNV - +0 23
#note I challenged, but I should certainly know this one. I hadn't seen it in awhile and it looked funny.
>Eric_Harshbarger: DEEHRTW 13G WRE.THED +90 184
#note As the little dog surrounded by flames in the meme says, "This is fine."
>David_Weisberg: AAEGNNV N10 VAN.A +34 57
>Eric_Harshbarger: AEU H12 U.EA +15 199
>David_Weisberg: ?EGILNU L3 INGUL.Ed +72 129
>Eric_Harshbarger: DP 14M D.P +9 208
>David_Weisberg: ACCDEOP 3I COP.ED +28 157
#note Needed another E instead for CODPIECE!
>Eric_Harshbarger: ABDEGR 5H BRAG.ED +24 232
>David_Weisberg: ACGJRSZ 15D JAGR. +21 178
#note This was a really tough but interesting position. I had the idea to play 15E RAGA 5, setting up my Z, but also hoping to draw an O for 2J JO 54. I thought better of it though, as the Z spot seemed likely to get blocked and even if I get JO, it's opening a possibly very lucrative triple on this closed board. I though my best chance to win was to shed the J quickly, hopefully score with the Z above ED in COPIED, and bingo with the S on row 9 if he didn't get to blocking it first. The sim prefers 11M JAG, which it claims gives me an average play of 50 next turn! It only bingos about 5%, so I'm not sure what other big plays it has in mind. JAGRA at least is only about a point behind JAG. RAGA comes far behind.
>Eric_Harshbarger: ATV 10G VAT. +7 239
>David_Weisberg: CELSSSZ I13 .LS +20 198
#note Not sure if I saw M9 SEZ 32. It sims 3 points better. I had the upper right corner on row 2 in mind to use the Z later, but there's a risk that gets blocked. SEZ sets up my S's for the O column triple, but he could hook if he has A or I.
>Eric_Harshbarger: EEEIOST O14 .E +12 251
#note Probably reacting to my last play using an S, and trying to block 15N SI or SO 28.
>David_Weisberg: CEFOSSZ 2M FEZ +41 239
#note Jumped on this and missed it at M9 for 44. It also sets up COSS O8 36, or other plays using one or both S's. A big missed opportunity. FEZ at M9 sims 9 points better.
>Eric_Harshbarger: AY 14E YA +17 268
>David_Weisberg: COOORSS 13C COR +16 255
#note This position shows what a big miss my FEZ play was. Now my S's are nearly useless. The sim likes 2J SO 12, but this seems to do nothing but score a few points, and it prevents any later setups for row 1. COR doesn't do me any favors either, though, and sims 4 points behind. An interesting option that sims about evenly with COR is 12F SO 8, which forces him to play on row 11 if he wants to restrict the area, and it may open thibgs for me over the next few turns. It also sets up 11E COR 22, but that may shut things down too much again.
>Eric_Harshbarger: EK 4J KE. +20 288
#note Only on this board could this 20 point play be such a huge blow!
>David_Weisberg: IOOOSST C10 OTI. +6 261
#note The computer thhinks I should exchange to ST, which certainly crossed my mind. I thought OTIC would force things open a lot, but OOSS is going to be hard to deal with. It shows how bad this board is that it's recommending exchanging one of my S's, though of course multiple S's can hamper flexibility and bingos. The exchange sims 10 points ahead of my play.
>Eric_Harshbarger: EMN D10 MEN. +22 310
>David_Weisberg: OOOSSTU E8 OUST +19 280
#note Missed 5E OUTBRAGGED 30, which still doesn't win much, but would have been cool to play. It still sims best, at 9.5 ahead of OUST, the next best play. Exchanging to ST is 4 points behind OUST.
>Eric_Harshbarger: BIL D6 LIB +15 325
>David_Weisberg: ?AIIOOS 6C O.IO +6 286
#note This sims best in a 4-ply sim, and the computer has it winning about 21% of the time compared to 19% for E5 OI, which leaves column B more open. I bingo 42% of the time with OI next turn compared to 19% for OLIO, so this seems surprising. OLIO also hopes to draw X if it doesn't bingo, for the OX/XI spot. For equity OLIO also comes out 7 points ahead. Possibly the sim is accounting for more human-like defensive responses to OI, and if I get SENOPIA or SINOPIA, for example, it may be hard for him to meaningfully block after OLIO.
>Eric_Harshbarger: SX C5 S.X +35 360
>David_Weisberg: ?AIORSW 5E OW +19 305
#note Tilting now and missed 12L OWN 29 or OWNS 33.
>Eric_Harshbarger: EINNORY 7L .IEN +5 365
>David_Weisberg: ?AIRS B1 RAISe +9 314
#note SERAI etc. B1 10
>David_Weisberg: (NORY) +14 328
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