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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Randy_Hersom Randy Hersom
#player2 David_Weisberg David Weisberg
>Randy_Hersom: AWW 8G WAW +18 18
>David_Weisberg: EEEGINN 7F GENE +21 21
#note Sims about 3 points better here than at 9F.
>Randy_Hersom: EFN 9F FEN +17 35
>David_Weisberg: EHIINXY 6I NIXY +22 43
#note Surprising (to me at least) sim result, with 6I EX 31 performing nearly 7 points ahead of my play. 10B NIXIE 23 is about 2 points behind EX, and the odd choices of F2 HIEING 20 and 6I HI 16 are 4 and 5 points behind EX, respectively. In sim details, opponent averages 30 after EX and 41 after NIXY, but then my next turn averages 29 after EX, and 39 after NIXY. Opponent bingos about 13% after either play, and I bingo 10% after NIXY vs. 1% after EX. It must be then that Quackle thinks they are positionally almost equivalent but the 9 extra points for EX gives it the edge.
As it happens, I think Randy could have a strong bingo leave after his last two plays, which I would think skews things closer toward NIXY, since EX allows for EEEW, and X and Y are not easy to bingo through. On row 5 he'd need to have A or K to hook KNEW, and the other bingo lines stay the same with either play. If he's close to a bingo, I think I'd rather go into the next turn with EHI than HIINY. If he doesn't bingo, then I'd agree he probably scores more after NIXY than EX. I still like my play better despite the 7 point sim difference.
>Randy_Hersom: ?ELMNOT E2 OMENTaL +71 106
#note The sim prefers passing up bingos with 5J TOM 37, with the top performing bingo, 5D OMENTAL 74, 3 points behind. 5K OM 33, which makes a little more sense to me if you're not going to bingo, is 5 points behind TOM. I like the idea of bingoing on row 4 next turn, but the problem is it won't reach the DWS so it won't score much. The highest scoring bingo, L5 MYLONITE, sims 5 behind
TOM as well. It gives back a lot compared to the other bingos, except for his placement at E2, after which the average opponent score is about the same as MYLONITE. Given OMENTAL scores 3 more at 5D, I suspect he just overlooked the ANEW hook.
>David_Weisberg: AEHIINV 8A ANVI. +27 70
#note Interesting turn. Quackle likes F1 AHI 31, which I did consider, but I didn't like how it closed things down for me while opening A plays on row 1. Behind that by 2 points is its suggestion of F2 HI 30, but then he often has the hook letters, and if he doesn't, I'm not sure how much I really can do up there with AEINV. K4 VIXEN 30 scores well, but it closes off the WAWS hook, and it's not that easy to bingo or open things on column L, plus the AHI leave is just so-so. My idea was to open the left side up, and among ANVIL, NIVAL, and VINAL, ANVIL sims best by about half a point. Quackle also offered 3C VIMINA 24, which sims 4 behind AHI. I noticed that play but wasn't crazy about it. I think it shuts things down too much, despite the better leave, and it sacrifices more points. I can see the case for AHI since it at least mitigates easy, high scoring overlaps on the D column, but I'm fine with my play too, for long term openness.
>Randy_Hersom: Q J5 Q. +11 117
>David_Weisberg: EHIOPTU K4 PI. +46 116
>Randy_Hersom: ADEEORR C7 O.ERDEAR +78 195
>David_Weisberg: EHLMOTU F2 HUM +37 153
>Randy_Hersom: S 7E .....S +18 213
>David_Weisberg: EEEILOT 12C .TOILE +14 167
#note I took a long time on this turn. I saw ETOILE on my rack but somehow didn't see that it played anywhere at first. It being the final game of the day, I was probably tired. The sim prefers 4K PEE 10 by half a point, which is a decent play considering all the options are pretty bad, and no leave from this rack justifies exchanging. With plenty of good stuff including a blank unseen, it made sense to just move some tiles and open the bottom center of the board, and score a few more points. However, Quackle thinks I bingo 38% after PEE, and only 16% after ETOILE, so I may have underestimated the strength of the longer leave on this board.
>Randy_Hersom: EGLO G1 LOGE +26 239
>David_Weisberg: CEEGIPZ 10B G.IPE +21 188
#note 1F CLIP 35 sims best. After HUM I had been looking at the top for the C hook, but LOGE must have made me forget about it. 1F CLEG 32 sims half a point behind it, but I like it better for getting rid of the G, though the 2 E's and 4 I's unseen are of some concern. B13 ZEP 43, cashing the Z and keeping CLEG or something else for next turn, comes out 3.5 behind CLIP. Another suggestion, 14B GRECIZE 42, looks interesting but is probably too desperate, a Hail Mary for the blank and S's which gives far too much back. It sims 6 behind CLIP. My play sims 7 behind CLIP, but had I seen CLIP or CLEG, I'd easily go with one of those.
>Randy_Hersom: ORSY L3 ROS. +34 273
>David_Weisberg: ABCDEJZ M2 ZED +36 224
#note I missed CHUM again, and 1F CLAD 32 sims best. H11 ZEBEC 54 is 2.5 behind, with 2J JAB 38 about 3 behind CLAD. B13 ZED 41 comes out about 7 behind CLAD, and finally, of course, my play sims over 12 behind CLAD. I think I played this quickly, figuring I'm far from a bingo but could set up N1 JAB 51 next turn. The problem is there are still 5 A's unseen, which I realized, but felt I had to risk anyway.
One key element of why CLAD is so good may the the B hook for BROSY, which I didn't see. It would allow for huge JIBED / JIBER / JIBES plays next turn, or JABOT, as well as ZEBEC, ZEBUS, or ZIBET, and a number of others. The sim says I average an astounding 57 points next turn after CLAD, though it still only has me winning 16%. Still, it's clearly the play, especially with the P's for PROSY gone.
>Randy_Hersom: ADS N2 ADS +41 314
>David_Weisberg: ABCIJLY B13 BAY +24 248
#note THe beautiful 1G LACILY 45 sims best by a lot, with the next best play being 1F CLAY 38, 8 points behind. I wouldn't have been sure of LACILY had I even seen it, but with this rack, my thoughts turned to setting up the J. As one would expect though, my play sims 24 points behind LACILY.
>Randy_Hersom: IRU 5B RUI. +4 318
>David_Weisberg: ACHIJLV H12 .LHI +21 269
#note 1F CLAVI 41. By now I was really fixated on the bottom left for JATO, but I didn't see 1G LICH 27, which would score 6 more and leave things more open for bingos later in case I do hit JO or JATO.
>Randy_Hersom: DEORU 1G .OUDER +24 342
>David_Weisberg: ABCCJTV -BCCV +0 269
#note Going all in for JATO now. Sim likes A12 JAB 30 a lot more for equity, but the win %, around 2.5%, is the same for either move.
>Randy_Hersom: AFIKOTT I13 AI +11 353
#note He probably thought, reasonably enough, that I was exchanging toward bingos...
>David_Weisberg: ?AJSTTT A12 JATo +74 343
#note The word I had in mind isn't even the best play here, but rather JOTA for 76. I must have just forgotten about OBA, which I still don't see sometimes. I think it might have been added with OSPD4 / TWL06 shortly before my hiatus. Oops.
>Randy_Hersom: ACIV B1 VICA. +20 373
>David_Weisberg: AFKSTTU J10 TUFT +12 355
#note I was in time trouble here, but this sims best, winning 52%. It threatens 1A KVAS 36. I will usually be able to go out if KVAS is blocked, and without OVEN or OVER, I'm not sure he can block it for enough. I might still lose if he has something like J11 TORC 29 (or ORC 28), but it depends what I draw.
>Randy_Hersom: BENOORT K9 BONE +23 396
#note Randy told me he mistracked and didn't see I had SACK for 42. Lucky break after all the mistakes I made.
>David_Weisberg: ACKS L12 SACK +42 397
>David_Weisberg: (ORT) +6 403
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