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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Morris_Greenberg Morris Greenberg
#player2 Jared_Cappel Jared Cappel
>Morris_Greenberg: ADEJRTU 8D JURAT +40 40
>Jared_Cappel: CHNNOOO 9C HON +21 21
#note COON 9B sims best, which makes sense as it has a better leave. There are many plays that are close here after COON. My thought with HON was it set up the C for CHON.
>Morris_Greenberg: ADEEFIQ 10B QI +36 76
#note Missed FAQI(R) over the board, I think I still would have preferred this, though tough to say. Quackle slightly prefers this.
>Jared_Cappel: CEFNOOP 7E FOP +26 47
>Morris_Greenberg: ADDEEFW 9G WED +27 103
#note Quackle prefers WADE here by 1.5%. It felt a bit too open for my taste after HON and FOP.
>Jared_Cappel: CEINOOU 10F UNCO +25 72
#note Thought about QUOIN which Quackle prefers by a bit. I feel like it just gets hit back with big plays too often and I'm already down. But my three vowel leave is very unappealing here on this board. My play sims second but it's still a play I'd probably make again, perhaps to my detriment.
>Morris_Greenberg: ADEFHSY 11G SHEAF +45 148
#note Lots of choices here! I figured this still preserved the (UNCO)Y possibility for next turn often, and felt more useful for blocking than (JO)SHED.
>Jared_Cappel: AEEEIOR 12K AERO +13 85
#note Quackle doesn't like my play all that much. It's top play is AERIE 12J which seems crazy to me with the hooks it takes. It also prefers the placement of AERO one to the left or some exchanges. I liked AERO in this placement as it allows for more 8s and also opens an easier to hit 7 lane beneath FA. Once again, I feel I'd make this play again despite the sim saying this is a 1.7% WP mistake.
>Morris_Greenberg: ADEILSY 13G DIALYSE +93 241
>Jared_Cappel: EEGIOUU -EGIOUU +0 85
#note Did not see QUEUE. Exchanged pretty quickly. Quackle likes QUEUE marginally more than this but pretty neck and neck. I feel like exchanging has better long term prospects (leaving the 7 lane open beneath DIALYSE).
>Morris_Greenberg: AAEEEST -AEE +0 241
#note Another weird turn. I also considered EAT 11C, (A)E I14, and TEA 14H. I thought while all of these have some merit, the upgrade in leave after exchanging and keeping the board as is were just too much better for me than these. I did not consider EAST 14I which looks best, as it scores 25 and still blocks further bingos.
>Jared_Cappel: ?CDERTU N7 EDUCT.Rs +94 179
#note Glad to find the highest scoring bingo (by 11 pts) and be confident enough in DIALYSER to make the play.
>Morris_Greenberg: AENSTUW O7 WAN +34 275
#note I missed UNWET, that seems best. I was choosing between WAN, WASTE, and WA(D)E. I wonder if WADE is better here to not allow for easy 7s.
>Jared_Cappel: AAEGIRV 11A VIE +23 202
#note My plan with VIE was to not obstruct the various lanes while also scoring a bit. In a sim, Quackle wants me to play something like RIVAGE 14B or VIRGAE M2 or 6J AIVER. I considered a couple of those longer plays. I need to think long term board shape here. The bot isn't thinking Morris will play defense as often as he will. Of the bot plays, I think something like RIVAGE or VIRGAE at M2 make sense. I think my play is at least somewhat better than the sim thinks but maybe I'm wrong. I do think the M2 plays look best and what I probably should have played.
>Morris_Greenberg: ELNOSTU A11 .OLTE +27 302
#note I considered VULN and VULNS here too, and ENOL. Quackle likes this best.
>Jared_Cappel: AADGMNR M1 GRANDAM +89 291
#note Was mad GRANDMA got blocked but looked longer and found this. Almost chickened out on it but remembered the back hook which helped me pull the trigger. With the 100 point deficit, I had to try it even if I was very iffy, though.
>Morris_Greenberg: EGINOSU J3 IGNEOUS +68 370
>Jared_Cappel: BGINRTZ 3I B.Z +17 308
#note Debated BIZ vs. ZIT. This bingos way more so went with this. Did not consider D11 RITZ which sims best. While RITZ scores may wore which may be pivotal in my comeback attempt, it's leave of BGN probably won't work too often, whereas the GRINT leave works well with the floating N and G.
>Morris_Greenberg: EEELMSY 1M .EY +21 391
#note I was pretty sure Jared had to be holding an I, so I had to consider which of IN(G) or I(N)G is more likely here given the 1 N and 1 G unseen, and the lanes on rows 1 and 5. I thought given that Z(I)G was possible the previous turn, it seemed more likely he is holding the N, which I think in a vacuum might be true, but there are a lot of scenarios where he will forgo ZIG for BIZ (as in the scenario he actually had), especially when he's holding ING. I don't mind this play, but I think my logic wasn't as sharp as it could have been in-game.
>Jared_Cappel: GIINRTT K1 TI. +12 320
#note Quackle thinks I win more by playing a double double now of TINTING or TRINING for 32 points. I thought I had to fish and open up a second lane, hoping Morris will block the T even though the N is what I'm really going for with my leave.
>Morris_Greenberg: BEEELMS 1H BEL. +18 409
#note I was about to play L(I)E(R)/L(IGNEOUS), but then wondered if I was just thinking of IGNITE->LIGNITE so switched to this. Regardless, I should have thougtht about what TI(Z) actually hits, I sort of autopiloted here instead of knocking out the N on row 5. This is my first big mistake, EME K5 wins 95.3% of the time without inference per Quackle, this is 92.1%, but I think I need to assume GI was kept here.
>Jared_Cappel: GIINPRT 5D PRINTI.G +94 414
>Morris_Greenberg: EEKMSTV 13A .EV +12 421
#note Lots of interesting ideas here, I considered making S(PRINTING) plays immediately that block bingos like fILARIA and sOLARIA, making a play like VEST 14F to set up ISM plays, and (L)EV. I figured here that I was likely to lose anyways if Jared has the bingo prone tiles and I am left with a subset of the hefty KMVX, so the logic was to set myself up best in scenarios with non-X tiles in the bag. This will likely guarantee me an out in 2 involving either SPRINTING or IS->ISM, which could outrun X plays I thought. Quackle points out VET 14F which is similar to VEST, but fruitful with all of A, O, or R for SAMEK, SMOKE, and SMERK, respectively. I didn't seriously consider it because I assumed a play like sOX there to block would still win, but it often won't.
>Jared_Cappel: ?ILOORX D12 ROIL +17 431
#note After LEV I was pretty sure he didn't have an A. But then I made the wrong conclusion from that assumption. If he did not have an A, and there were 2 As in the bag out of three tiles, then by drawing 2, he'd pick up one A 2/3 of the time which would allow for his bingo of MISTAKE 66% of the time and I'd lose. Somehow I figured he would have MISTAKE 1/3 of the time not 2/3. Just basic math and I completely blundered it. I was looking for a way to block MISTAKE but was scared any blocking play would get outrun. If I'd seen ORLOP D1, I'd have played that. That looks best.
>Morris_Greenberg: AAEKMST D3 MA. +14 435
#note I had under a minute, I didn't realize this still gives OXI(M)s, OXI(M)e, or cO(M)IX in the moment, and sets up TEAKS parallelly or (L)ATKES to outrun an X play. KEA 6B is the only win Quackle finds, sOX O13 is 40 points so a hefty combo is required here.
>Jared_Cappel: ?IOX 3A OXI.s +26 457
#note I definitely made a couple suboptimal plays along the way, but still happy I managed to claw this one out after being under 1% to win in the midgame. This was a really interesting game that Morris and I analyzed for probably over an hour. Each turn had so much to discuss. Looking forward to our next game!
>Jared_Cappel: (AEKST) +18 475
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