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#player1 Jackson Jackson
#player2 Mack Mack
>Jackson: AFIOSTU H7 FOU +12 12
>Mack: DEIIIIO -IIIIO +0 0
>Jackson: ADIQSTZ 9G Q.IZ +33 45
>Mack: DEEHRTW I8 W.THERED +71 71
>Jackson: ADEIMST 15F MIS.ATED +89 134
>Mack: ?EEGMNS 14A GENoMES +80 151
#note Considered L8 MoNGEESE for 4 less, but the G in the seventh spot didn't see too dangerous and I'm not going to be taking much of a lead so figured it was better to take the extra 4 points. MoNGEESE also makes 7s a lot easier on column M and row 14.
>Jackson: AFRTUVW 12C WAFTUR. +28 162
#note J6 FUTZ and D12 AVOW are other options, but this looks solid for extra turnover.
>Mack: ABDDEGN 13B BADE +41 192
>Jackson: EIINOUV M10 NEVOI. +20 182
#note Several options here, including VOID or IVIED in the same spot as well as 10C ENVOI. Sim liked VOID -- Jackson isn't down much here so it may be more prudent to keep things tight and be patient rather than force it open and give me good options while keeping the clunky IU leave.
>Mack: DEGGLNY 11K GL.G +12 204
#note Missed opportunity here to play the cool GY(V)E setting up GYVED with no Ds unseen. There are 2 Ss, so it's not entirely without risk, but there is a ton of upside as GLND can easily bingo with a 2-vowel draw and it's really annoying for Jackson to block without an S. I could also just do GYVED immediately, which looks better than GLEG. GLEG is not bad as EDNY is a great leave for this tight board with 14I EYE and the potential for 15A OY, but it's too big a point sacrifice over GYVED or GYVE.
>Jackson: AAIJKSU 10E AJI +37 219
>Mack: ACDENOY 15A OY +32 236
#note I saw 14I EDENIC, but liked keeping ACDEN as it gives me great potential to bingo if Jackson bingos and/or decides to open the board, and I also save EDENIC next turn if he doesn't go there.
>Jackson: AIKSTUX 14L T.X +22 241
#note Playing KIFS/SWITHERED looks a bit better, but that's tough to see
>Mack: ACDENNO J9 .A +17 253
#note Weird play, but there's not much else. Not going to open with a play on column G, and I do hit CONDONE some about of the time and CADENZA or COLZA as big plays to the ZA with an A or L draw, respectively. I still have a pretty solid leave so happy to continue playing the game of chicken and waiting for Jackson to be the first to open.
>Jackson: ?ABIKSU F10 .U. +10 251
#note KIFS may still be slightly better, though this hits KIELBASA on the E column fairly often which is nice
>Mack: CDELNNO J6 COL.. +28 281
>Jackson: ?ABIKSY 9D BY +12 263
#note Jackson thought about the cool CASK for 10 setting up huge CASKY plays next turn, ultimately deciding it wasn't quite worth it as I'll play through the K and block a decent amount of the time (obviously I'll be well aware or what he's trying to do). Another cool option is G6 KI, setting up the SKI hook -- if I don't have the right tiles this is super annoying to block, and I do have an -OR play with OK and RIF, but that gives Jackson counter-overlaps with YOK so works out pretty well for him in the long run. We both liked KI a bit better than BY when analyzing this together.
>Mack: DELNNOR 6J .LON +6 287
#note Very aggressive play, but I was starting to not love my position on the tight board having no good scoring tiles. DENR hits a ton of bingos with CLONE if he doesn't block, and it's hard to get a good read off of BY -- he could have a strong rack or a fairly weak and consonant heavy rack, and in the latter case he often plays through the O in CLON he leaves me the hook to bingo with. The best-simming option is G3 DRONE, which opens a little but in a more controlled fashion, and also scores a bit better and digs more for the blank and Ss. Of course, LN is considerably weaker than DERN and less likely to bingo, so that is a drawback. Tough call -- I don't mind CLON here, but DRONE may be a little more sound.
>Jackson: ?AAIKST N5 IKAT +39 302
#note Passing up C3 KATSInA, which makes a lot of sense. I'm clearly close to a bingo after CLON, so taking out this spot makes a lot of sense, and he's pretty likely to hit a bingo on column B with his AS? leave within the next couple turns,.
>Mack: AADENRR 8A RADAR +32 319
#note Could consider DENAR or DREAR as there's only one A left and 4 Es, but figured my bingo percentage was still higher keeping the E after RADAR for -ER or -ED bingos. Sim agrees.
>Jackson: ?AEHISU O6 SHEA +44 346
#note Clearly better than bingoing for 61 through the R. 8L HATE is another reasonable option as the S is useful for RADARS bingos, but 11 is a lot of points to give up -- this looks right.
>Mack: EELNNPS B4 ENPL.NES +68 387
>Jackson: ?INOORU M3 IRO. +10 356
#note Tricky play. Jackson obviously needs to bingo to win. His best lines as the board currently stands are through the E and N in ENPLANES, 7s with RADARs, and 8s through the O in CLONKS. The problem with not opening a new lane, say with A10 OUR, is I'll almost always play something like G5 VIE and block everything on the left, so Jackson will need to rely on a bingo through the O, which isn't too easy with his vowel-heavy leave and many more Is and Es to draw. So it seems he needs to be proactive and open a new lane.
The nice thing about IRON is it sets up the gIRON hook if he draws the right tiles, and also gives him the I to work with on the 3rd row, which with -ION and -IER posisbilities should be a lot easier to hit than the O in CLONKS. However he needs a pretty specific draw to hit an -INg bingo with gIRON, and it's still fairly easy for me to block a bunch of stuff at once with a play down column G, so his prospects aren't super strong.
The star play appears to be M2 ONION, setting up the RONION hook. It empties the bag, which is a bit counterintuitive, but it spreads the open lanes wide enough that it's going to be nearly impossible for me to block all the most useful lanes simultaneously. RU? hits 7s with RONION a ton given the unseen pool, and if I block over there I'm leaving the E and N in ENPLANES for RE- or UN- words as well as 7s on column F ending in a blank S.
>Mack: CEIIOPV 4H VOICE. +30 417
#note One of several plays that win 50%, winning when I draw a consonant and losing when I draw a vowel.
VOICER loses with: E (TURIONs), I (TENOURs), O (UNITERs), U (ORIENTs)
INVOICE or NOVICE loses with: E(ROUTINg/gIRON or fRUITION), I (sNOUTIER), O (TRUEINg/gIRON or NEURITIs), U (pOINTIER)
VIE/EF loses to the same words as INVOICE or NOVICE.
G3 VOICE only wins 25%, losing with I (UNROOTEd), O (UNRIVETs), R (INdEVOUT), T (sOUVENIR), U (REmOTION), and with an E if he finds the disconnected 5A INTRUsION.
Looks like I made the right call here. Turns out playing G3 VOICE would've forced him to find INTRUsION given I did draw the E, but I'm confident he would've as he had a few minutes and also could've afforded to go over a bit looking for a bingo.
>Jackson: ?INORTU F2 NITROUs +66 422
#note Great game! I went over by a minute while calculating VOICER, so final 432-407 in Jackson's favor.
>Jackson: (EIP) +10 432
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