| Player 1 |
|
#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 SB Steve Bush
>JJB: EINOORS 8F EROSION +66 66
#note 0:41 [24:19] (8b erosion 66 +1.5) Conventional wisdom dictates consonants in G and/or I, but this needs checking because 8g and 8f simulate evenly, edging out Quackle's choice of 8b, each around 70% win odds.
>SB: ADEIOOT -IOO +0 0
#note 1:22 [23:38] (iodate 7d 20 +10.8) SB also has bingo tiles but with too many vowels. He should claim points with a heavy overlap such as iodate 20, but he is tempted to go for the points next turn. Yet ADET, the best exchange, is only +6.7; even roo 4 rates better.
>JJB: EGHMNRR K7 M.NGER +18 84
#note 2:15 [22:04] (herm f7 15 +2.6) JJB calculates morgen/monger; slightly better leave would be homer or gorhen. However, there is a synergy here in EGNR +8.9, allowing the weaker-looking play of herm 15 to rise to the top.
>SB: ADEFILT H7 F.LIATED +63 63
#note 0:46 [22:52] SB's gamble pays off and he is on the board.
>JJB: AGHLNRW G10 GNAW +28 112
#note 2:27 [19:37] Missed opportunity: warmonger 30, a point behind the best play, the straightforwardly-calculated 28 (ahead of haw 29). Wangler/wrangle for up to 26 were tempting!
>SB: EERTUUU -UUU +0 63
#note 0:06 [22:46] (exchange EUUU +.7) SB's post-bingo draw is worse, and the exchange of unununium is mostly correct. Quackle says an E kicker would be higher (ERT +7.9 versus EERT +7.2). Unau 4 is way behind.
>JJB: AHILQRT F12 QAT +32 144
#note 1:16 [18:21] Hidden double better than that of qanat.
>SB: BDEEGRT I13 DEB +21 84
#note 2:18 [20:28] SB also sees the correct parallel.
>JJB: EHIIILR 7H .IL.I +18 162
#note 2:34 [15:47] JJB burns more minutes to find an even better overlap. He sees the ER are much better on the rack than in filmier.
>SB: AEGORTU F5 AGU. +9 93
#note 4:08 [16:20] (outgain l2 16 +4.4) Oh the outrage! No bingo plays, but searching one's memory for 4 minutes is certainly indicated. Many better plays of 4-6 tiles are available, with outgain 16 leading tegua/et/re 20, rouge/rogue/erugo, and derogate 24, but SB opts for an old reliable.
>JJB: EHINRSX J14 XI +56 218
#note 0:44 [15:03] Sextuple with bingo leave, what else does one need to know about this rack?
>SB: ?EORSTY 5D ST.YOvER +90 183
#note 2:16 [14:04] If any quadruple were good, it would be the best play, so SB invents one. He needs more points than this so takes a greater risk than playing storeys/oysters m1 82.
>JJB: EHLNNRS L11 HERN +23 241
#note 1:57 [13:06] (challenge +90) JJB has reviewed the over- list but there are several reversible compound words on it and this isn't one of them. He yields up the play and also declines to open up further with herns d1 24, sticking to his prepared play, which is best if accompanied by challenge. The risk of being wrong is significant, and he was not certain enough to proceed, but has relative certainty that he can defend a lead of 58 at this stage.
>SB: ACHIOYZ M3 AZOIC +54 237
#note 2:26 [11:38] SB draws and sees a key synergy of two tiles with this board, almost within bingo range. It's anybody's game with one blank to go (SB win odds back to 40%).
>JJB: BKLNPSS 6L K.P +22 263
#note 1:01 [12:05] (kips 6l 23 +5.8) Drawing into a vowelless rack at a critical time, JJB sees enough of a scorer and reasons that setting up his possession of the last two Ss is better than risking a nonuple with kips, despite static leave. The spot also accommodates bilk, bisk, pink, libs. JJB perversely considers psst briefly, 23 static points behind.
>SB: ACHUUVY 4A YUCA +30 267
#note 2:48 [8:50] (vau 4c 18 +.5) If this ugly rack is transcribed correctly, the H doesn't help a UV leave and vau 4c 18 is a static hair better than this imaginative opening play. But cushy 26 leads vacua 14 among plays with better leave, and yucas is more open than yuca, all these being around 30% win odds.
>JJB: BELNOSS O1 NOBLES +37 300
#note 1:22 [10:43] (benzol 42 4j +8.3; nobles 15a 40 +3) JJB draws a near-bingo rack from his consonants. Seeing benzol would save both Ss (bonze(s) also plays)! JJB also misses qats, making his setup less useful. Thus this fine thrusting play after losing the lead is a bit imperfect; but he still wants to draw that blank. JJB turns down belons and notes that the higher score of lesbos* has been expurgated.
>SB: EHMOUVW A1 WHE. +39 306
#note 0:41 [8:09] (vow 4f 36 +7.3) SB keeps the UV again to use his setup; vow 4f is a flashy play that has a leave worth 10.3 better.
>JJB: AEFISTT 1A .AFTIEST +95 395
#note 0:39 [10:04] Now fatties/fas is obvious, but JJB noodles a bit longer and unwittingly constructs a phony every bit as ominous as SB's. This is one of those inventions that one wouldn't be sure to rule out without having memorized a rare list.
>SB: EIMNOUV 14E U. +2 308
#note 3:35 [4:34] (challenge, ouzel 4k 30 +118.8) SB is still concentrating on winning by bingo, when a very real chance at winning is available by challenge (50% versus 10%). He directs himself a weak hook but without a clear bingo rack. Ouzel 30 is available but subtle, and gets him points but still not that bingo rack.
>JJB: AAJRTUV D10 JURAT +27 422
#note 1:54 [8:10] (jurat 15a 41 +14) JJB is really sweating the bingo risk despite his lead, and he sacrifices 14 to seal up most of the left side rather than allow an R bingo ending. Jura/rut is 3.5 better for the same score.
>SB: EEIMNOV 9K .EVI +19 327
#note 0:40 [3:54] (vee m12 24 +4.2) SB knows the blank is among the 5 bag tiles and the 12 tiles JJB has seen, and so he should play off three or four. The bag is so good that all the top plays self-direct potential nonuples in A or O, with nomen/kino 18 at 5%, followed by neve 14l, rive 13l, over 12a, nova 13a veer 12a, etc.; onium and emeu are imaginative. SB doesn't want a few extra points with vee m12 24 or moi 2f 25, but doesn't believe opening the nonuple is really best here, so creates a compromise line for himself that is very specific. Thus, right spot, but nomen is the better word. (Programming a simulation where the blank odds are reduced due to JJB having seen more letters would weaken the reported value of the nonuple strategy.)
>JJB: ADIOPRV 3D VAPID +18 440
#note 4:54 [3:16] (vague f4 9 +13.1) For static leave, one would play one tile and hope to bingo, i.e. vague 9. However, many plays guarantee 100% win with Quackle's endgame analysis, so in this case playing two tiles in case one draws the blank might give the best game value, namely with ivy g3, which still allows a bingo in row 3. JJB calculates broadly but concludes that playing off the most tiles and points is the goal so as to go out in one (pavior and parvo can be considered, rating better statically but not dynamically). All the same, bingo chances are significant enough to factor in.
>SB: ?EELMNO N8 L.MONEnE +80 407
#note 1:18 [2:36] SB knows the best word and only bingo! For the third time his risk has paid off; his moral victory is a spread of only -23. JJB challenges freely.
>SB: (DOOR) +10 417
#note Both players score massive phony bingos and 50-point power plays, which cancel out; so what became more important was that even though SB's risks all paid off, they cost several turn scores that JJB was able to overtop on average, allowing sufficient late control of the game. Known points available: SB 95, JJB 107. Overall points available: JJB 135.3, SB 146.7.
|
