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#player1 Ken_Rubin Ken Rubin
#player2 Mack Mack
>Ken_Rubin: ?HINOUV -OUV +0 0
#note This one is for all the marbles. I figured I probably needed to draw well and hit some big plays to beat Mack. Even though I had been losing a lot to Mack, I always think I can win any game.
>Mack: DFLNSSS -FLNDS +0 0
>Ken_Rubin: ?HINOUW 8F WHO +18 18
#note I saw the potential for WHODUNIT but nowhere to play it.
>Mack: ADSSTTX I7 SAX +29 29
#note MM: Looks weird, but didn't want to give back the A and I hooks with TAX especially holding four consonants. This at least makes Ken's life pretty difficult next turn.
>Ken_Rubin: ?AEINOU 9H E.ONUmIA +66 84
#note I almost missed EXONUMIA. It's a very good early sign that I found it. I am generally very solid on my five vowel 8s.
>Mack: ADISTTW O8 D.WT +24 53
#note MM: 10J WAT is way too volatile, I'm only going to be down 30ish and it's still really early. Much better to take out the 3*3 lane with DAWT, set up another S hook, and be patient.
>Ken_Rubin: AACEEMR 7A CAMERAE +76 160
#note Okay, this is now a very good sign. CAMERAE is not an obvious find, and this big early lead with flashy back-to-back bingos is exactly what I need.
>Mack: AEILLST 12I TAILLES +76 129
>Ken_Rubin: EFGIORR A4 FOR.E +42 202
#note I missed FAIRGOER B6 because that's what I do: miss high prob 8 bingos It's hard to look for it after seeing FORCE A4 because FORCE is already a very solid play that leaves an ING possibility on the K line. I also liked the idea of a PERFORCE front extension later in the game because it's flashy and not obvious. The problem is that Mack obviously knows it and will see the potential, so we're neutral on this at this point. But all of these factors combined contribute to me not taking more time to look for FAIRGOER. Of course, if I had been studied up on 8s, this would be automatic.
>Mack: GINTTUV J11 V.TU +9 138
#note MM: I hated D6 VETTING since it closes so much down and really allows Ken to take control of the board and the rest of the game. I considered F6 VAW but not seriously enough. I'm generally averse to one-tile fishes given the high variance and that it telegraphs so much to your opponent, but in this position it looks justified. VATU isn't exactly an inspiring play, I don't keep an S and if Ken gets a big play there I'm already close to conceding defeat. Plus I block the valuable -ING lane on row 11. VAW is disastrous for my scoring potential next turn if I miss and/or Ken blocks row 11, which I hastily assumed was extremely likely in-game, causing me to pass on VAW.
But in reality I hit quite a lot - ABCGHJNOPRT all make 7s on row 11. I think I missed the A and the O in-game, for some reason only looking at _UTTING words and forgetting TAUTING and TOUTING. And while Ken may very well block after a one-tile fish, he may (a) not have a good play there or (b) decide to block another lane, most likely columns C and D. Given the score in this game, it seems like a better gamble for me to take than hoping Ken doesn't have an S after VATU and that I draw one before he does.
>Ken_Rubin: EGINORU 4A .OU +6 208
#note I like FOU 4A because EGINR is an excellent bingo leave with the board wide open. If Mack back hooks an L or R on FOU and plays vertically, he'll score points but won't close down the board further and may even open it. I'm also keeping an R which means I can play FOUR next turn and potentially score big, if I don't have a bingo next turn and Mack doesn't play there.
>Mack: GIMNOTV 3C MOVING +34 172
>Ken_Rubin: EGINORY H1 EG.Y +39 247
#note This isn't a great play. ORGY H1 is a better play because the ING leave is powerful. Quackle likes OY E6 which makes sense. I somehow neglected to see OY. If I had, I would have played it. Oy.
>Mack: BEIITUY 6D BEY +39 211
#note MM: Obviously disgusted with this play, but 6A RYU, the only other option remotely worth considering, didn't seem any better. It's 8 less points and BEIIT isn't really that much more inspiring as a leave than IITU, and at least with BEY I give myself one more shot at an S or the blank.
>Ken_Rubin: ILNOOOR 2F LO.OI +16 263
>Mack: EGIITTU K5 TIEI.G +14 225
#note MM: Again, obviously not thrilled with this, but no other good options. 14 points is still worth it over exchanging.
>Ken_Rubin: ABENNOR 8A .BON +21 284
#note At this point, I'm still keeping an eye on PERFORCE which makes it attractive to keep ER. Of course, there is the potential to focus excessively on that possibility leading to suboptimal plays. EBON keeps AENR which keeps open the possibility both of PERFORCE and a bingo on future turns, except this board really isn't conducive to bingos. That along with BORANE/BANNER 1J scoring 10 more points is probably why Mack agreed in the postmortem that BORANE/BANNER is the better choice. Quackle confirms that BANNER (O) is slightly better than BORANE (N). This is likely because the tile bag is consonant-heavy, which means leaving a vowel is beneficial.
>Mack: AIJNQTU 1J QUINTA +59 284
>Ken_Rubin: AEHINRR J4 RAH +29 313
>Mack: ADEJKPS 15F JAKES +56 340
>Ken_Rubin: AEINNRR D2 N.R +20 333
#note I like NOR D2 because it keeps open PERFORCE, blocks a potential high-scoring play by Mack in the same spot, and holds three vowels in a bag that is super consonant-heavy.
>Mack: CDDIPRZ 9C ID +17 357
#note KR: Quackle likes DIP 9D for 25 points. It scores 8 more points than ID C9 (what Mack played). By giving up the P, Mack decreases his chances of hitting PERFORCE in the next two turns, but maybe he doesn't need that. Maybe scoring 8 more points and turning over one additional tile (in the hopes of drawing a vowel) is more important.
MM: A critical, potentially game-losing mistake here. I got extremely fixated on two things: (1) as Ken alluded to, trying to draw one of EEE? for PERFORCE and (2) blocking 7s with OES for Ken that would instantly win the game. The pool is really scary, and I figured after NOR Ken was fairly likely to have at least one of the S and blank. He also obviously didn't keep the F or else FOR comes down, making his expected rack even more bingo-prone.
The problem with ID is if I don't draw PERFORCE I'm losing basically 100% of the time, and even if I do draw and play PERFORCE I'll sometimes lose in the endgame because of all the clutter, including the Z, left on my rack. I underestimated just how dreadful of a tile the Z is on this board once I'm vowelless - I'll probably have to dink it off with something like 14G ZA or O1 ADZ, the latter of which is unideal due to giving back ADZE plays. It depends of course exactly what I draw, but Ken and I analyzed several endgames after ID and his actual play of LIEN where I play PERFORCE next turn and he still ekes it out in the endgame with a strong out-in-two.
I failed to consider two much stronger options than ID: 9D DIP and exchanging down to PR or even nothing. I didn't see DIP since I was so fixated on keeping the P with any play I made, but it also blocks row 10 bingos while scoring 8 more than ID and getting rid of another consonant. I absolutely have to draw a vowel here to have any chance so getting rid of the extra consonant is huge. I give up my chances at PERFORCE, but the key is now that any vowel I draw can be spent improving my prospects with the Z as opposed to playing PERFORCE and leaving me without a vowel to deal with the Z. In particular an E gives me L4 ZED or 2B ZEN, the latter of which may be desirable to prevent Ken from playing PERFORCE himself. As long as I draw a vowel, especially an E, my chances after DIP being up 32 points look decent.
Exchanging is interesting since it almost guarantees I'll have a balanced rack next turn, quite possibly a bingo, and has the added benefit of returning my junk to the pool for Ken to draw. Obviously the main drawbacks are scoring 0 and that if Ken bingos immediately on row 10, which DIP prevents, the game is over. Exchanging down to PR is enticing to try to draw PERFORCE, but I'd rather exchange everything if I went that route. If I play PERFORCE next turn I'm giving Ken yet another chance to hit a game-winning row 10 bingo, so it's probably not something I'd want to play until at least two turns from now anyway. That gives Ken plenty of time to hit it himself given what's unseen. Of course I could still bingo on row 10 myself with the right draw after exchanging down to PR, but it's significantly less likely than after exchanging 7 as I unload two more consonants and give myself two more chances at ?S. That seems much stronger than the upside of possibly drawing PERFORCE when I may not even be able to safely play it next turn. If Ken has both the S and the ? I'm almost definitely toast anyway after either exchange, so if I exchange it seems logical to exchange 7.
In conclusion I think I'd play DIP if I had to do it over again, but exchange 7 is a strong alternative. I do feel the 32 point lead after DIP with 4 shots at an E or the blank is strong and pretty likely to hold on, plus I take away the prospect of a game-winning bingo by Ken. Given the pool, conceding the game to row 10 bingos after exchanging 7 is still quite uncomfortable, and I'd rather take my chances in an endgame after DIP. This is especially the case considering any wins after DIP will be more complicated for Ken than a simple row 10 bingo, and I believe he was getting fairly low on time at this point. Definitely an instructive position, and yet another lesson to be careful about tunneling too much on one or more tempting ideas.
>Ken_Rubin: AEEILNR L3 LIEN +17 350
>Mack: CDFPRSZ F1 F..C +9 366
#note KR: Quackle likes FORCED 9A or FORCEPS 9A to block PERFORCE. Perhaps Mack 1) wanted to keep it open for himself, considering there was a possibility that I didn't know it or wouldn't see it; 2) did not feel confident he had a big enough lead to take the possibility of PERFORCE off the board and outscore me in the endgame given his consonant-heavy leave.
MM: I was very low on time here after spending quite a while on ID, and didn't consider anything other than trying to keep PERFORCE open, draw it, and hope Ken misses it. I didn't consider the possibility of playing FORCED myself to block PERFORCE, which is intriguing. I played out the endgame after I draw a blank and it appears to be a tie, and Ken can win narrowly if I draw an E, but both endgames are very complicated as he needs to find a viable way of dealing with 14I FURZES. It seems much more likely he'd misplay that endgame than miss the possibility of PERFORCE entirely. Of course in the actual situation where I draw another consonant it's moot, but I should definitely be maximizing my chances when I do draw an E or blank.
>Ken_Rubin: ?ADEEPR A1 PER..... +45 395
#note Perforce! Victory is near.
>Mack: DPRSTZ 14I P.TZ +19 385
>Ken_Rubin: ?ADE 15L ADzE +27 422
#note KR: Mack is a good sport and likes my ADzE play. It seems appropriate to go out with another Z play.
MM: Congrats Ken! Definitely a long overdue first tournament victory.
>Ken_Rubin: (DRS) +8 430
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