| Player 1 |
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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 CCD Clay Daniel
>JJB: CEIMSUZ H4 CUZES +38 38
#note 2:04 [22:56] (cuz 8g 28 +7.3) In round 9, JJB opens with a disputed choice, playing off the S for 10 because he prefers openness and turnover. Maybe JJB will be convinced by the 5% win odds improvement that goes to cuz over cuzes. Every point counts in these final rounds.
>CCD: AINOQ 5G Q.INOA +30 30
#note 1:45 [23:15] CCD prefers openness too, given a U-less Q.
>JJB: EIILMNT J3 LI.IMENT +64 102
#note 1:24 [21:32] (melinite 7g 65 +1) Mint-lie plays through CONE, and all but the C can be used here.
>CCD: AWY 4L YAW +28 58
#note 1:11 [22:04] Same score at g7.
>JJB: AFHIIRU -AFHIIRU +0 102
#note 0:57 [20:35] (hafiz 6d 39 +29.7) Now JJB appears nonplussed by this rack without working out that it yields a strong hafiz/qi 39 play. The long day is wearing on everyone.
>CCD: ELNOV O4 NOVEL +38 96
#note 0:46 [21:18] CCD uses his own hook and is only 6 behind; great formation.
>JJB: EGINOPT G7 PO +16 118
#note 3:55 [16:40] (po 3m 21 +5) The bingo rack JJB wanted is now here, playing through AS (unavailable). He has the right tiles to fish but they go better at 3m, keep your eyes moving. He considers lept 3i 24, which is better than po 16 but behind po 21, and this too is worth playing; it's above his alternates of tiz 25 (finally saw the spot) and pig 20.
>CCD: ADETTV 9B VATTED +21 117
#note 0:49 [20:29] CCD gets his turnover in search of his own bingo tiles.
>JJB: EEGINNT B9 .ENTING +26 144
#note 4:12 [12:28] (eventing b8 78 +51.7) Now for a tragic flaw. JJB writes down eventing but doesn't want to even calculate the score, sticking to venting 26, which is in fact the second-best play. Of course he can play eventing. There is no substitute for solid vocab when it comes to the risk of an opponent taking you off tempo versus the risk of missing your best opportunity. The hook remains available for either player willing to take the risk later.
>CCD: EMRST M3 M.STER +34 151
#note 1:04 [19:25] (rem 8a 31 +7.5) Indeed, CCD's best play is now rem/eventing/ma 31. He's willing to play off the S to keep up point pressure on opponent.
>JJB: ACEEGGI 15A A.GIE +24 168
#note 1:09 [11:19] (aggie l8 19 +.9) CCD remarks that this is the second time today that Steve Gawtry's dog Aggie has been graced with her name on a Scrabble board. Quackle prefers aggie/ar 19 for one more tile gone.
>CCD: OX 10E OX +52 203
#note 0:18 [19:07]
>JJB: CEEEGOO K10 OGEE +12 180
#note 1:48 [9:31] And the weaker leave is starting to get to JJB. Razor-sharp play is needed.
>CCD: ALRRY 12H RAR.LY +20 223
#note 1:26 [17:41] (nary 11b 26 +7.9) CCD makes a turnover play; the key premium for his Y is 11e, allowing nary/toy 26, which shouldn't hurt his rack.
>JJB: ACEFIOP H10 FA.CIE +33 213
#note 1:11 [8:20] Here's a triple that JJB can use rightly. The board won't stay open long though with turnover play.
>CCD: KNO 14G O.NK +18 241
#note 5:11 [12:30] (know n1 26 +8) The recommendation is now the opener know/mo 26; but if CCD is going into block mode early, it may prevent both players from bingos. Also ....
>JJB: BHOPRUW F12 HOB +31 244
#note 0:35 [7:45] (pub f12 30 +10.0) JJB holds the key tile. Pub has the best leave of seven top plays all in the same place.
>CCD: EFH 8A FEH +44 285
#note 0:40 [11:50] Finally CCD reveals that he's confident of the hook, and now all of a sudden JJB is compelled to be too; he can't challenge his own word. Bigger lead for CCD.
>JJB: DOPRSUW 7C WUD +24 268
#note 1:42 [6:03] Best response. Somehow JJB feels like he'd rather be playing Upwords* instead.
>CCD: BIR E4 BIR. +14 299
#note 2:28 [9:22] CCD thinks carefully but makes another very blocky play from a narrow lead. There are still two blanks and a J, and both players know their endgame footwork in close quarters.
>JJB: DEJOPRS N2 JO. +30 298
#note 0:34 [5:29] Important decision with 7 in bag. Bingos are highly unlikely and blanks are now for increasing the showiness of close crossword plays (JJB is already assembling dosser/dex). The premiums for mid tiles are now key, namely 4d, 11e, 2n, 13m. It's true that jow 30 has the best static leave; it wins about 45% of cases, putting JJB only 1 point down at this moment. Joyed 32 will get him to 52% and 1 point ahead. But playing J immediately is not the immediate need with the number of blanks and vowels unseen, especially with the closedness of the play. Quackle recommends making the board more open with ode/yo 18, leading at 65%. The reason seems to be that the Y opening and its followup is more important to control and direct to oneself (good chances of sextuple J next turn) than a play at n2 that has little future. Setup is everything. As the play goes on the further importance of the Y will manifest. JJB draws two of seven with the risky 298-299 score.
>CCD: ?AAILR 15J AeRIAL +24 323
#note 2:48 [6:34] (raia d1 18 +30.2) On the tiles shown, aerial/atrial rates 30.2 behind best static play of raia d1 18; guessing CCD's seventh tile, it would rate 35.8-45.6 behind, and it empties the bag too. But 24 is hard to score now after the J! Is CCD onto something? Is Scrabble suddenly a game just of getting the most points on turn only and no other calculation? Chiefly on points and fumes, aerial gets about 96% win chances, outdoing all the obvious static choices. By taking a lead of 25 with few premiums left, CCD will need simply to stay ahead and score again with his 6 tiles before opponent can set up his 7, and the way seems cleared by his strategic play, despite leave evaluation.
>JJB: ?DEPRSU 4B DRU.S +16 314
#note 4:32 [0:57] (duras d1 22, duads 1d 21, pe 14n 18+4 +3) And it appears JJB's rack is one that loses by exactly 2 with best play. And CCD doesn't seem minded to err; he knew he would draw versatile tiles. The best combo that comes up is duras/ab/si 22 with pe/pa/el 18+4, reducing ditas d1 26 to duads 1d 21, netting 23 to JJB when he's down 25. JJB worked out alternatives in his own later postmortem as well as in Quackle, and they don't compete with opponent's threats of ditas d1 26 and audi(s)ts as a reply. Notes include: under 18, asp 19; yauped 22, tsar 16; drub 14, pyes 22; redub 16, spy 22; rubs 12, polder 18; dosser 18, spue 15; all of which fall to one defense or another. Redubs 20 gets the reply stead 20, po 17+4, and nets 21; torus 17, ditas 26, oped 28+2 would net 21; dura 18, duads 21, topes 21+4 would net 22. If all these cases are transcribed correctly, duras 22 is now the only best play. In the time JJB actually has, he can only make the guesses he can spot, and he spots that neap/top 20 can be used with drubs 16 and yields an alternate of ape 14m 19. He can only hope that that, plus a recount, will be enough points to win. Putting the calculation together, opponent's best reply now would be tsadi 22, yielding 4 back with unused tiles and yielding 2 more to JJB for higher response (sneap 22): so JJB's net is 20 (loss by 5 instead of 2). But JJB has not completed his tracking and thinks CCD holds 6 one-point tiles and cannot score more than 16, yielding 6 back, which would win for JJB by one. With one minute left he commits to his choice.
>CCD: ADISTU 13M AID +18 341
#note 4:22 [2:12] (tsadi d9 22, sneap 11a 22+4 +4) And on CCD's time JJB realizes to silent horror that his opponent is holding a D and a simple 13m play will win by one and is all that's needed. Tsadi will improve CCD's spread to 5, but it's not needed. While CCD's choices are easy to find, the intuition necessary to justify the combo as a winner is the mark of a coolly calculating tournament player. Shortly after the game, JJB sees didst b2 18 (yielding 4), which also improves on aid/ya. The game will be won shortly and JJB can only wonder what he could have done better in the endgame; the fact is that jow was his last chance and is eminently reasonable, while ode 13m lacks a body of theory to commend its simulation value and was that much harder to find. CCD puts down the tiles for aid, saying he thinks it'll win, and JJB agrees verbally with this initial assessment, because now there's nothing to hide; in fact, both players predicted their opponent's final plays accurately.
>JJB: ?EP 11B .EaP +20 334
#note 0:15 [0:42] JJB circles the A on the blank designation and CCD nods his head as his expectation is met. There's nothing to do, no higher play to find, only the chance that these two accurate players may have made a recountable error. But the recount proceeds uneventfully.
>JJB: (STU) +6 340
#note CCD lost the previous endgame against JJB this morning by only 16 in a very similar situation; there JJB had the power to make all his opponent's outplays losers, but here CCD does so even more dramatically. His knowledge of eventing, and JJB's uncertainty, was highly determinative; JJB also let hafiz 39 pass him by. CCD's brilliant endgame was not too hard to find, but resisting many other temptations was bracing, and CCD's closing style even while holding only a minor lead proved significant, leading to a pre-endgame score of just 299-298. Now it's just before the king of the hill, Randy Hersom leads CCD in a winner-takes-all game between these 6-3 players, while JJB will need a miraculous finish to take second place from either player, a feat that will be compounded by not knowing the final score of the Hersom-Daniel game. Known points available: JJB 9, CCD 12. Overall points available: CCD 55.6+, JJB 108.6. |
