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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 DD Dustin Dean
>JJB: AAEERST H3 AERATES +66 66
#note 0:35 [24:25] (aerates 8g 66 +.9) JJB and DD meet up again with JJB drawing the opening bingo, and the big question is not which word but which placement. Static preference goes to 8g over 8c/h3, but all placements allow a big risk from za or ax/ex except 8e, which sacks 2 points and allows two quadruples. Simulation rates all at 66%-69% win percentage, but 8h, 8b, and 8f seem to edge the others out despite (or because of?) opening up two spots; the difference of less than a percentage point may be too little to quibble over given other factors.
>DD: AOZ G3 ZOA +47 47
#note 0:55 [24:05] DD has almost 50 points in reply.
>JJB: ELNRTVV 5F V..VET +24 90
#note 1:00 [23:25] JJB gets another V but misremembers vervet (which only plays for 16). The phony is worth 4.4 more than velvet 16 and way ahead of verve 15 and varlet/vetoer 18. Also 18 is vent/voe/ear.
>DD: DEW 6J WED +30 77
#note 1:01 [23:04] (challenge, deaerates h1 30 +20.2) DD lets the phony stand, but he could challenge and still get 30 with a nine!
>JJB: ?ALNORS I8 LOANeRS +63 153
#note 5:57 [17:28] (tensorial k5 66 +3) JJB's biggest bingo would be another 9, which he's seen, tensorial (orientals/relations/serotinal); solunar/weds is 65. JJB searches but misses these; the 9 he sees, lazzarone (plural lazzaroni, no S hook), is one letter away from his rack. Given his placement, solunar 63 is probably preferable due to not setting up another vowel to get hit.
>DD: DEHO H12 HOED +48 125
#note 2:19 [20:45] Another blowback of almost 50.
>JJB: AAIIIRW -AIIIRW +0 153
#note 0:55 [16:33] (war j10 34 +8.2) JJB misses the other premium he has opened, 10j, and should remember that trades are contraindicated if there's an easy 30 and no strong bingo leave (AR is best at only +1.9).
>DD: GPU 4J PUG +23 148
#note 3:24 [17:21]
>JJB: AAEFHIS M2 FAH +28 181
#note 1:02 [15:31] JJB spots the pointy hook; he may have also seen deafish 30.
>DD: Q -4 +0 148
#note 1:04 [16:17] DD trades to bingo tiles.
>JJB: AEEIMSX I2 EX +44 225
#note 1:01 [14:30]
>DD: AENNRST 1D TANNERS +84 232
#note 1:04 [15:21] DD takes good advantage of another big opening from opponent, taking back the lead; otherwise he'd have to find the next 9 this time, resonants 61.
>JJB: ADEIIMS 14E AMI.. +13 238
#note 4:07 [10:23] (diamides l6 76 +48.3) The neargram set is amidases, diamides, misadded, misaimed, but JJB writes out a phony and then it clouds his judgment as to whether diamides 76 is 100% good. Can he still win if he bypasses this risky-looking play? He could have quite a better leave with ai n2 16.
>DD: IQ 15D QI +23 255
#note 0:18 [15:03] (qi l1 26 +3) Did you see the higher placement?
>JJB: DEIINPS J9 PI +15 253
#note 2:35 [7:48] Best spot. JJB also needs to keep porin/pi 17 in the vocabulary. It's a protein like a prion; but porin comes from pore, while prion actually comes from protein and proto- (it's a portmanteau of pro-teinaceous in-fectious but anagrammed as influenced by -on, so the Merriam-Webster etymology of pr-oteinaceous i-nfectious plus -on is an inference that's not quite accurate). Also, an orpin(e) is an herb, from orpiment, from gold pigment. Etymology rules.
>DD: EF G13 F.E +23 278
#note 1:50 [13:13] Padding the lead to 25 as both work on bingo racks.
>JJB: ADEINOS N2 AD +19 272
#note 2:52 [4:56] Not a single opening for anodise: *match big oxidizers. So direct a hook to O, S, NO, or SO.
>DD: JOT 2C JOT +14 292
#note 3:16 [9:57] No clear standout spot for the J as DD struggles to hold the lead.
>JJB: EIILNOS O1 ISOLINE +84 356
#note 0:26 [4:30] Now elision/isoline/lionise plays through CDRSVZ, but JJB only needs one line. He next needs to protect his lead of 64, as there are still many bingo openings and scorers.
>DD: BY D1 ..BY +18 310
#note 3:16 [6:41] DD is making the O powerful at 3c, but if he already has it he should just play boy 40.
>JJB: BCDILTY K10 TIDY +19 375
#note 1:45 [2:45] (forcibly 13g 36 +19.9) JJB can strengthen the lead with 90% win odds, more forcibly (36)! He spots dicty/aid 26, but that and lytic would rate 85% and he is uncomfortable with them. Tidy 19 clocks in closer to 80%; the opening from forcibly is not that risky by comparison.
>DD: NO 3B NO. +28 338
#note 0:45 [5:56] Scoring while directing a hook to the blank or K that DD doesn't have.
>JJB: BCEILUW B3 .UB +5 380
#note 1:42 [1:03] (wye 4c 22 +16.6; dub 12k 12 +7) JJB is pressed and determines to shut down the new line, but his time-bound response can admit most vowels, and MA, NA, and longer; so it is not an improvement on opening to K or blank. While it's true that a heroic shutdown might lock up a game mostly or completely, this is not one; and column 14 remains unaddressed, while yew 13k or blew n7 would make matters harder. The rack is also imbalanced. While dulce 12k 18 simulates on top at 75% (balancing leave, openings, and turnover), with duci and duce close behind, that is not a clear choice organically; lube or wile in column N are more easily spotted blocks. But interfering with column A doesn't simulate well at all, with newb 15 around 60% and nub 5 below 50%. Further analysis beyond bare sim results may be called for.
>DD: GRR 13C GRR +11 349
#note 0:12 [5:44] DD neatly clears off the last duplicate from his rack and opens up two good lines, possibly holding both -ing and -er (albeit he doesn't seem to have angrier or its anagrams).
>JJB: CEGILUW D9 LUGE. +12 392
#note 0;40 [0:23] (wig n7 12 +9.6) JJB now needs to realize there are 9 in bag, with 7+ being a key decision point for exchanging, and to gage the ugliness is more concentrated on his rack than in the unseen tiles. Further, there are two board regions with good bingo lines that cannot both be destroyed, and although DD has drawn 21 tiles since his bingo the fact is that he still doesn't have the blank, so JJB drawing it in 7 out of 16 is still appreciable odds, around 20%. For these reasons, trading all simulates at 62%, several points ahead of a dozen other trades. The scoring block play would be gluier 18 anyway, about 50% (ahead of uglier and wiglet), with dulce and wig/we and luger close to 40%.
>DD: ACEIMNT N7 NEMATIC +65 414
#note 1:54 [3:50] Sure enough, DD has found the clutch bingo, taking a lead of 22. His win odds are still only 47% because it depends on what 5 tiles JJB has left him. Who will draw the blank out of the last 9 tiles?
>JJB: CIKLOOW A1 WOK +40 432
#note 0:08 [0:15] JJB could have had 7 chances to draw the blank instead of 4, but he has a clunky rack now that only has the saving virtue of a big K score. But DD has virtue literally, at f5, and plays at a5, c5, and 11b. It's theoretically possible to block them all in exactly one place, but there is no 10a word on this rack. If JJB was insistent on leaving open the win possibility by phonying, he'd pretty well have to start with a WO because any of his other starts in English would allow further outs in columns A-B, and even if he kept kinematic 29 in store opponent would just play rues/isolines 33 and still win. So not even a phony block would win; the phony would need to be an incredible scorer, like wick/"kluger"* "70", which would win the game for JJB if not challenged. This is not the endgame analysis one should usually dabble in, because there is no win against an alert opponent even with JJB's best good score of 40 (or his flashiest score of kinematic 29); but over the board the risk that one's opponent is not alert must sometimes be given due weight.
>DD: ?EIRU A5 aUREI +15 429
#note 0:53 [2:57] DD has drawn a blank case where any out is enough to win. A recount turns up no irregularities.
>DD: (CILO) +12 441
#note Though the lead kept changing hands, DD's cautious play revealed only one challenge error and one placement error, and his clutch bingo gave him 50-50 odds to make a winning final draw. JJB's missed opportunities were a significant contributor, particularly his writing out dicty and diamides and not pulling the trigger; this was compounded by his time-strained weak blocking decisions. This was also quite the game for missed 9s, some of them significant, with DD able to play deaerates and resonants, and JJB able to play tensorial and kinematic. Known points available: DD 3, JJB 10. Overall points available: DD 23.2+, JJB 104.0.
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