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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 CP Cathy Poole
>JJB: ?EEGINT 8D GENTIlE +68 68
#note 1:18 [23:42] Now the four 3-0 players will vie for the two place prizes, while JJB 2-2 is paired with CP 1-3 for a non-money game; JJB still potentially qualifies for third. With the pressure off, JJB is relieved to start with a broad bingo rack, and finds the one play that hits the premium without opening up a vowel or an easy triple (like integer 68).
>CP: AAFV 7J FAVA +16 16
#note 0:30 [24:30] (fave e5 20 +3.4; fava 7a 17 +1) CP draws vowels and mid tiles and doesn't want to open with fava/ag 17 or keep another vowel with fave 20.
>JJB: BDEOSWY 8M YOW +32 100
#note 2:06 [21:36] And CP's play has some conventional wisdom, because after fava 17 JJB would have ew 35, and after fave 20 JJB would have yowed 36. Yet fave still leads win chances by about 25% to 15%. It appears that 48 seconds into JJB's turn the clock was neutralized and not immediately restarted, so JJB got a bit of free time on this turn, but the players do not account for this.
>CP: FOU 6M FOU +17 33
#note 0:36 [23:54] (fou 9h 20 +3) CP shows off some more understandably ugly-looking tiles. They also play subtly at 9h.
>JJB: BDEORSY F6 BE.DY +25 125
#note 2:54 [18:42] (sobered e5 40 +4.1) Here is a board and rack for the puzzle books! JJB misses the elegant puzzle solution of sobered 40 for the quadruple. Also highly ranked is the fine turnover orebody 30. If he really wants leave, he would play yobs/fey/fays 30 (just .1 ahead of yob/fey 17).
>CP: AIO D7 A.IO +5 38
#note 0:26 [23:28] (tao g8 13 +5.9; obia 6e 6 +1) Now CP is so strapped she can't even keep one more vowel for 8 more points with tao 13; and she misses obia 6.
>JJB: BILOORS C10 BOIL +16 141
#note 2:20 [16:22] (oboli c9 23 +8.6) JJB needs to persevere a bit more to find oboli in this rack, which is a much more welcome fit to his line; bolo is also better leave.
>CP: A 9C A. +11 49
#note 1:21 [22:07] Though CP's rack is unknown here, we do know that if she is holding a blank at this time she has missed a bingo with her fish of aboil/ai. And if she's not holding a blank she is holding guitar/bogy 24; so she has lost at least 11.3 opportunity points and probably more, but this is not accounted for in the calculation method used here.
>JJB: ADGOPRS H3 PAGOR.DS +63 204
#note 0:32 [15:50] (podagras k1 82 +19) For his part, JJB smells a truly extant bingo in the woods here, but he shoots early and thinks it's pagorids* (misspelling of pagurids). Later in the game or postmortem he looks at the rack again and realizes that podagras/gentiles would squeeze in and he would have seen it given enough time. Even if he goes unchallenged he is still 19 points behind best play.
>CP: ?GIRSTU B3 GUSTIeR +62 111
#note 3:01 [19:06] (challenge +63; zastrugi k6 74 +12) CP believes herself bound to take JJB's word for it and later charges JJB with being sneaky; but JJB (who didn't actually make the best play in his vocabulary) answers that he almost always believes his own plays, unless he's playing a deliberate probable phony when it appears sportsmanlike to test the opponent. CP has her own bingo rack ready, though, and takes her time to be sure of playing an unassailable word. The correct path is to challenge and play zastrugi/sastrugi in column K, which JJB failed to seal up; though, if the play stands, uprights and spurting score the same.
>JJB: EEKLPUV 4G V.KEEL +26 230
#note 1:14 [14:36] (kep b12 26 +2.5) With a lot to dispose of from a cold draw, JJB likes the turnover of vakeel, and it retains higher win chances, but kep/ki/el and puke both get 26 with better leave. JJB's other choice is pulka, 22 in two places. This interesting rack is worthy of more analysis.
>CP: CI 10H .IC +11 122
#note 1:28 [17:38] CP also has a hard cold draw and opts to play it off slowly.
>JJB: COPQRTU 12A QU.P +50 280
#note 0:27 [14:09] JJB has an obvious quadruple play, widening his lead.
>CP: ADI A12 .AID +42 164
#note 0:29 [17:09] The blowback is also obvious.
>JJB: CNNORTT 4A C.RT +18 298
#note 3:57 [10:12] (conto n2 14 +2.5) If JJB decided to value 3-consonant bingo leaves higher, he might have preferred conto or oncet 14. He wrote out tronc, but it plays nowhere.
>CP: ELMW K9 MEWL +24 188
#note 0:34 [16:34] (elm a6 28 +.2) Now CP can cash a hook she has set up, clearing her remaining mid tiles.
>JJB: DMNNOTZ K1 DOZ.N +30 328
#note 1:03 [9:09]
>CP: AENRRST 13E RANTERS +69 257
#note 2:17 [14:18] (strander 1f 80 +11) JJB has opened up a better bingo if CP can believe it: strander 80.
>JJB: AMNNORT 1H RAN.OM +30 358
#note 1:38 [7:31] (mordant 1h 33 +1.0) JJB misses a slightly better triple that he knows well. He also sees he is one letter away from potzer 47, but that option will not get used this game.
>CP: HJ F12 H.J +29 286
#note 1:52 [12:26] CP is enlisting the old standbys, yet JJB keeps turning out thirties too. Playing wide open is wise, but who will get to use this hook?
>JJB: LNOSTUX H13 .UX +30 388
#note 1:05 [6:26] (xu e10 34 +4) JJB seals up the triple, while the haji hook is still available; he also misses the hidden play boxy/xu 34!
>CP: EE 3K .EE +26 312
#note 1:21 [11:05] CP has at least five vowels and disposes of two of them quite well.
>JJB: HILNOST A7 OH +29 417
#note 3:12 [3:14] With no bingo and one tile in bag, the instinctive play to cash the last midpoint tile is the right one. JJB has calculated that opponent has no bingo so it's a points race for spread. Can he give CP a 100-point handicap this game?
>CP: AEEEINT 15D ANI +18 330
#note 0:49 [10:16] (tinea g11 29, liri c2 16, erne j12 8+6 +24) CP now needs to calculate an outplay and has time. She can hit both J and X with tinea/hi/jeu/ax 29, allowing seen 12 or erne 8 as followup with +6 bonus; opponent will want to block seen with liri 16, netting 27 to her. However, she uses the hook without finding a second outplay, allowing opponent to go out instead, netting only 3 to her.
>JJB: IILNST I4 .IN +12 429
#note 2:35 [0:39] (silo n3 17, tele 12i 12, unwit o6 8+2 +1) Using silo/zees 17 on first or second play allows several options that all score 8 for INT. JJB's own find is only one point behind, kin 12, which threatens lilts 12 and may also respond to opponent for a different 12, or more points.
>CP: EEET 3B .EE +14 344
#note 0:30 [9:46] CP finds the correct response and makes the one perfect final play; it also doesn't set up opponent further like tele 12, which ends up scoring the same for her side but can be pluralized to advantage of opponent's side.
>JJB: ILST O8 .ILTS +9 438
#note 0:11 [0:28] (lilts 12k 12 +3) In his final haste, JJB misses lilts 12, and opponent's opening allowing slit/ser/let 12.
>JJB: (ET) +4 442
#note JJB pulls ahead slowly with an opening bingo, a phony bingo, and general good scores; CP had bingos but missed higher opportunities for them, as well as missing a challenge. CP had win hopes on these grounds despite her other difficult draws; but JJB is on a streak, having played the best 4-game series he can remember, despite winning only two (average opportunity points from full racks at an expert low of 28.7). By virtue of his spread in this game, JJB places third, thus pegging a unique achievement. At the first Charlottesville Triple Crown, he was seeded third in all three tournaments, and placed third in all three, with three wins each tournament! (And for this achievement and a cup of vaquero coffee, he takes home $5.) Andy Hoang wins the late bird, or, as Andy calls himself when announcing prizes, "that other guy". Known points available: JJB 27, CP 115. Overall points available: JJB 45.7, CP 122.5+.
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