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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 IJB Izak J. Bulten
>JJB: AAOPQRR 8G PARR +12 12
#note 1:08 [23:52] (proa 8f 12 +7.0) These two combatants always have interesting games, and the choices available in this game are no exception. JJB starts with an animus toward R but not O when proa/prao (or trading to APR) are ahead of para, parr, and orra in static value. Simulation is understandably bouncy without easy conclusions, but reasonable-looking exchanges compete well with the above, and also pro. This opening rack is worthy of more investigation.
>IJB: AAAMOTX 9E ATOM +16 16
#note ~0:40 [~24:20] (rax j8 26 +8.0) IJB could cash his X first for 26, but he has hopes for more later; indeed tamarao plays for 17 and is fiercely competitive.
>JJB: AEOQRUV E8 V.QUERO +38 50
#note 1:29 [22:23] JJB picks up UV together and here secures the $5 University of Virginia fun prize for forming the highest word in the main event containing the letters UVA. If the seven doesn't play, it's often fine to play six tiles of it through one on the board.
>IJB: AAAEIRX 10H ARIA +11 27
#note ~0:46 [23:34] (ex f13 52 +21.1) IJB judges that vowel dumping is paramount, but there are three 50s with the X, and a 40-point difference is worth taking and holding out during another rack or two of heavy vowels. Area has a quadruple overlap for 22 also.
>JJB: AFIINOR 11J FAIR +23 73
#note 2:09 [20:14] (fano d12 30 +2.3) Fano d12 30 is just ahead of fino 23 in this spot, another set of ambiguous choices that all simulate around 60%.
>IJB: ACEEFLX F12 LEX +55 82
#note 0:20 [23:14] (falx d12 58 +2.2) Now IJB is ready to take 50 for the X. In the same spot that JJB overlooked in column D, he could raise to 58 by playing falx.
>JJB: DINOTWZ M11 .ITZ +26 99
#note 4:20 [15:54] (dow g13 25 +5.0) The Z is not as necessary to clear out on this board as the X is when a 50 is indicated. JJB wants to use it fast, but misses extending to donzel 36, which is tied for the lead in the playlist with dow/red/oxo 25 and indow l11 26. All three use repeated premiums, unlike JJB's simple double.
>IJB: ACDEFGO D12 CAF +42 124
#note 1:20 [21:545] (cafe d12 46 +1.5) IJB recognizes dogface but it's a non-go, so he seizes upon the hefty spot with his mid tiles. Cafe gets 4 more with a slight leave setback so is worth considering, but IJB would rather direct the hook somewhat to himself.
>JJB: ADELNOW N12 DEAL +37 136
#note 0:53 [15:01] (aw n14 32 +3.8) JJB is more interested in cashing the z/a opening, but the best leave for this is simply aw/za 32, with his leave quite a bit behind. He could still get 40 for donzel, or better use cafe to get lowe 34 or wade 37, and again the choices are worth arguing about.
>IJB: ADEGHOS 15A SHOE +34 158
#note 3:27 [18:27] (doges 15a 54 +23.1; hoes 15b 38 +4) IJB misses a prime chance to play vaqueros; even hoes 38 is ahead of shoe 34. If he works with his rack he can find either doges 54 or hades 60. He has been reclaiming the lead the last three turns; neither player has had real bingo racks, but he's had the X and first S while JJB could not get much for the Q and Z.
>JJB: HNOOOWW A12 WOW. +14 150
#note 2:04 [12:57] (woos a12 11 +.8) Quackle sees nothing better for this mess than to play off woos or wows onto the exposed S! And, note well, woos has the better leave by 3.8.
>IJB: AADGIOS O6 ADAGIOS +85 243
#note 1:05 [17:22] IJB walks into a rack he knows well and has the ticklish job of telling his dad he's gotten the first bingo and a lead of 93.
>JJB: HMNNOOV N6 HOM +36 186
#note 0:41 [12:16] JJB can find the optimal play with this premium opening, at minimum.
>IJB: ??BDGNU B7 BUNGleD +70 313
#note 3:50 [13:32] IJB draws two blanks together and sits on them a few minutes, but it's clear in time that an -ed bingo will go down (there's the obvious, and there's the anagram blunged). Noblesse oblige. Either bingo puts him now at 97% win odds, but there are non-bingo plays that would achieve the same (even tossing off one blank cheaply): the blocker bug/upo/gama is very competitive.
>JJB: ENNOSVY 15J NONY.S +47 233
#note 0:35 [11:41] (envoy c3 41 +9.1) It's clear that IJB has opened a triple that doesn't score much better than no 14, but it's not so obvious that c7 is a potential sextuple (envoy 41 or envoys 45). Fox, parr, and ritz all take the Y hook, and JJB's play is showy in getting the highest score but also at cost of retaining the V. It could be argued that score is needed most now.
>IJB: EK 8A K.E +21 334
#note 1:26 [12:06] (keg 9m 22 +1) Missing keg/home 22, but fishing well.
>JJB: EEEIIVY J5 EYE. +15 248
#note 2:27 [9:14] (ye g14 22 +.7) EEIIY is a bad draw no matter what leave (no 7-8 bingos in it at all). More points are available by seizing those on the board without worrying about premiums: ye/foxy 22.
>IJB: BDERSTU K1 BURSTED +82 416
#note 1:47 [9:19] IJB gets another recognizable bingo and with such good letters that his opponent's opening accepts three overlaps. His lead is now 168 and he is about to leave 10 in the bag at 100.0% win odds, to the nearest mill anyway.
>JJB: EIILTUV 3I VI.ILE +26 274
#note 3:33 [5:41] (virtu 3i 24 +6.2) JJB holds a long time, recounting after 24 seconds. He is pretty confident it's good but is dismayed at the imbalance of bingo draws this game. He can't quite form ubiety, uveitis, or dilutive; but virtu, one of his favorite words, fits better in this spot.
>IJB: CIILNNP C4 INNI. +11 427
>IJB: CIILNNP -- -11 416
#note 1:51 [7;28] (blini 1k 24 +45.1) Now IJB needs a dump like blini or pinite, an extension like invirile, a block like pul 23, or an overlap like in row 14, but he takes a gamble that the opposite of outie*, which he knows to be a phony, might contrarily be valid. It would be poetic to say that this might have cost him the game in some scenario, but Quackle still sees no dent in 100.0% win odds, despite his loss of about 30 in dynamic value.
>JJB: EEGNOTU 1K .EGOT +27 301
#note 2:09 [3:32] (buteo 1k 24 +5.7) JJB challenges after two seconds, hoping there is still a chance, and plays the best triple besides buteo. But with 5 in the bag and almost all the power used up, there is no winning play in simulation.
>IJB: CIILNNP F9 .I +17 433
#note 0:28 [7:00] (up 11e 17 +6.0) IJB recounts the play after 12 seconds and casts off a duplicate to draw the last tile after 16 more. The best dynamic value is to shut down J options in row 14 by playing inn j13 5 or clip 14h 18, because there is still hope of sticking the opponent with the J!
>JJB: EEIJNTU 14H JEU +16 317
#note 2:19 [0:13] (jee 14h 16, pi 2n 20, untie c4 11+14 +8) Now the only outs in two cannot be guaranteed: jun/evite, jee/untie, or the unlikely setup tein/jute. Jun 18 can have its out blocked with clamant 12; evite 17 looks good at first but opponent can totally stick JJB with the J with cite 6. But jee 16 retains unit, which will go out against all opponent's blocks but one, inn 13; JJB can continue uni 18, clamant 12, yet 6+6, which scores the same for opponent as not blocking, so opponent can just take the points with pi 20 as well as block with inn 13. JJB instead thinks that tine/nite will play somewhere, especially if opponent unwittingly opens a line; but the fact is that unit/e means one line more than zero, and thus has the real threat power.
>IJB: CILNNPT N1 .P.N +12 445
#note ~1:30 [~5:30] (pi 2n 20, teg 9m 14, clamant h6 12, inn 9a 13+2 +8) IJB can't go out in two at all, and needs to score, indicating pi 20 (perpendicular to this play) and retaining clamant 12 for good turnover. Opponent can now play teg/home and inn/ki/en in either order to respond best against most alternatives.
>JJB: EINT C6 TE. +9 326
#note 0:12 [0:01] (vent i3 16, camail h7 11, in 9a 8+4 +10) Scoring the same as teg with inn, JJB can also block clamant with vent/net/tye. But he has run his time down and his play allows opponent a better response spot for his remaining vowel.
>IJB: CILNT 6C .IC +5 450
#note ~1:40 [3:50] (clit d4 19, inn 9a 15+2 +18) Clit, tinct, or clamant would do better in retaining only one letter, but IJB is not taking time on probing out uncertainties.
>JJB: IN I3 .IN +9 335
#note 0:01 [0:00] (inn 9a 15+6 +6) JJB has his play ready without going over but hasn't yet seen inn/ki/teen.
>JJB: (LNT) +6 341
#note At almost every turn, alternatives were available to the players that were either arguably or definitely better; even in the endgame neither player had a clear out in two and so room for improvement was available and the players had time to find better cascades. While JJB had an unwinnable game on the tiles and IJB missed big opportunities like ex 52, doges 54, and blini 24, the fact is that IJB saw all the bingos available to him and that made the difference. Known points available: JJB 24, IJB 31. Overall points available: JJB 64.6, IJB 134.0+.
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