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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 ED Elizabeth Davis
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>ED: COZ 8G COZ +28 28
#note 0:32 [24:28] ED now gets the opening and is allowing no simple overlaps.
>JJB: ABELNRU I8 .EBU +16 16
#note 2:25 [22:35] (na 9h 17 +2.6) Holding the A, it might seem unlikely that na 17 (nab 20 just behind) would have the top static score, but the leave is an improvement and not much can be done with the Z without use of za.
>ED: ?AEINTV 12C NATIVEs +85 113
#note 0:28 [24:00] Down goes the tisane bingo with a premium plural.
>JJB: AALNRSW 13B LAW +21 37
#note 1:51 [20:44] With the slot for narwals taken, JJB must let it go and determine good leave, which in this case is a simple ladder play.
>ED: EERY J5 EERY +27 140
#note 1:53 [22:07] (eyre j7 35 +12) Knowing the anagram might disclose 12 more points in this line: eyre/cozy/er/be. No front hook either.
>JJB: AANRRSU 11A RUANA +23 60
#note 1:58 [18:46] JJB makes another optimal play on poor tiles, with good hopes, but he will need to continue to make the most of every opportunity.
>ED: DIN K3 DIN +12 152
#note 2:18 [19:49] (in j10 12 +.4) ED declines to reveal much and focuses on balance and openings of her own choice, given her good lead.
>JJB: DEEJRSV 4J J.VED +47 107
>JJB: DEEJRSV -- -47 60
#note 1:01 [17:45] (jeed l1 49 +49.7) Now JJB bites, claiming 47: but 49 is available with jeed l1. Worse, he has misremembered the hook: eery takes BLPV and vid would be a fine play, or even deviser 37. Assuming ED challenges, this error will put him more than 100 behind and he will need to count on much better draws than the marginal ones he has been facing most games today.
>ED: PSU A13 SUP +22 174
#note 1:06 [18:43] (piu 4j 20 +6.0) Sure enough, ED states that it doesn't look right to her, and she challenges after 54 seconds. She has her play ready within 12 more (piu/peery scores a bit higher).
>JJB: DEEJRSV L1 JEED +49 109
#note 0:23 [17:22] Now JJB sees the optimal play, but a tempo in Scrabble is much worse loss than in chess. He can only try to resolve to make no more errors, given ED's likelihood of scoring in response.
>ED: AMS 1L .AMS +39 213
#note 1:39 [17:04]
>JJB: AOORSTV 10I .RAVO +12 121
#note 2:50 [14:32] (outsavor 11h 74 +53.1; parvo 15a 14 +2) Now JJB's out- list fails him as the hidden outsavor/oe does not form itself in his mind, an opportunity cost of 53.1 in static leave. He scores little for his dump and could do better with even parvo 14, while avo/ode 18 is a much superior leave. But not fully hunting out a hidden bingo is one of the best ways to miss win chances, in this case dropping them from about 20% to about 10%.
>ED: EFINORT A4 FRONTIE. +95 308
#note 0:23 [16:41] Meanwhile ED has a dynamic natural bingo and takes her win likelihood to 99%.
>JJB: DEOSSTY B6 YO +28 149
#note 3:39 [10:53] Time to start making the best of middling tiles.
>ED: IQ 10E QI +25 333
#note 0:18 [16:23]
>JJB: DEIPSST 6G SID.STEP +72 221
#note 1:04 [9:49] (deposits m7 82 +10) JJB now draws another bingo, and finding this sweet placement is a small consolation, although deposits straight through the O is 82 instead. At least his odds are up a few percent either way.
>ED: AMX H12 .XAM +39 372
#note 0:49 [15:34] (ex 10a 50 +11.8) Another strong showing, though the standard ex 10a ranks 10 higher statically.
>JJB: AEHIORT 2N OH +23 244
#note ~1:49 [~8:00] JJB draws an "Aerolith" rack, literally, but there's no place to play through LNSU now. Again dropping two tiles is best.
>ED: FO 7L OF +20 392
#note 2:11 [13:23] ED feels the same way about dropping two.
>JJB: ABEEIRT 3I BI..T +22 266
#note ~1:05 [6:55] (vibe l10 18 +9.2) JJB thinks it clever to claim these points, but if he's going to let go of the T he should look further to find ideate/mot/she 25 here. He is accepting that time to score is running out.
>ED: CHILN 4A .LINCH +28 420
#note 0:46 [12:37] A strong turnover and score, though columns D-E are a little open still. ED's score is bingo-proof but not a guaranteed win.
>JJB: ADEEGGR 2H GAG +20 286
#note 3:22 [3:33] (vegged l10 28 +1.2) A better tempo would be to score 28 with vegged or aggrade, though leave balancing is about even.
>ED: IKT E2 TI.K +20 440
#note 1:06 [11:31] (ki 3c 26 +5.9) And now comes a final block for this region. ED also has, or is about to draw, the last blank.
>JJB: DEEILOR E2 ....LER +13 299
#note 2:02 [1:31] (vole g12 24 +24.5) Though there are still a couple plays that can win in theory, counting on using row 1 strongly and on leaving ED with all the baggage, they don't indicate themselves for simple analysis. Best to seize the remaining points, but JJB adopts a hybrid approach of still hoping to draw the blank.
>ED: ?AEGLRT O6 sLAG +23 463
#note 4:29 [7:02] (argental 14h 74 +46.6; slag 1f 27 +4) ED holds a bingo rack with her blank, and after the game she looks up agrestal, argental, and glabrate on her phone and then pooh-poohs their obscurity. She can score a little higher with a different triple, (s(l))ag/ag/gab, even if s/tickler doesn't pay off well.
>JJB: EEORT M9 W.UND +26 325
#note 1:00.7 [0:30.3] (monie 15h 8, overt l9 16, wud c7 23+2 +6) And JJB sees that ED has drawn emoter, meteor, remote, vetoer, and has a final desparate sigh. However, it's still possible for him to block all these by going long in row 15, and monie 8 allows him to go out with wud/now or wud/monied. This would be an amazing find if JJB worked it out in his remaining minute, but his desparation at going 1-4 so far has been too hard to control. Letting opponent go out is not too many more points lost.
>ED: EEORT 15F RE.OTE +8 471
#note 0:07 [6:55] (meteor 15h 9+6 +1) One point on placement.
>ED: (EIO) +6 477
#note ED plays solidly and only misses obscure bingos in the endgame; JJB misses one he knows and also plays a phony, both at bingo-level cost. He didn't have a technically unwinnable game, but he can learn from the omissions made. Known points available: ED 17, JJB 18. Overall points available: ED 88.7+, JJB 156.3.
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