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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JR Jeff Reeves
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>JR: ACDL 8F CLAD +14 14
#note ~0:50 [~24:10] JR, always classy, starts off with a play suggesting good leave and extension hopes as well.
>JJB: ANORSUZ J6 ZAS +40 40
#note 1:01 [23:59] (cuz f8 34 +10.7) JJB opts to cash his Z and S right away, rather than take the simple cuz 34 with bingo leave. Possibly showing weakness.
>JR: FGINRST H5 STR.FING +64 78
#note ~0:29 [23:41] Best of the three anagrams.
>JJB: ABHNORU K5 BAH +32 72
#note 1:58 [22:01] Balancing this rack is harder than the last one, but the clear ladder play is on top. For showoff consideration and turnover: hagborn 26.
>JR: FOP L4 FOP +34 112
#note 1:12 [22:29]
>JJB: MNOORTU 5B MOUTON. +18 90
#note 2:48 [19:13] (gunroom 12h 20 +.8) This time JJB finds one of the turnover plays, slightly behind gunroom and ahead of monuron.
>JR: ?ABERRT 10E ARB.TERs +63 175
#note 3:12 [19:17] (aborters c3 72 +9) Triples abound (e.g. arboreta and tabourer are 72), but JR sacrifices a bit in points and openness to play a safe one without taking more time to hunt.
>JJB: DDNORVY B2 DOR.Y +38 128
#note 1:27 [17:46] (dyvour d1 30 +1.9) JJB really wants score, but playing off the V can be worth up to 10 points, and so it's worth sacking 8 on upfront score with the nice dyvour 30. Row 1 is not a problem given opponent's random rack. But the bag is relatively positive in not penalizing bad leaves too much anymore.
>JR: AHW 6D HAW +37 212
#note 1:41 [17:36] More standard play, continuing to ease the bag toward bingo potential.
>JJB: DIINSTV A1 VID +27 155
#note 0:36 [17:10] Even with a pair of Is, JJB gets a straightforward release of his V with +17.5 leave.
>JR: CEIU K9 U.EIC +14 226
#note 1:11 [16:25] (ecu 4e 18 +1.9) JR begins mildly closing and likely has another I indicating a preference for ureic over ecu 18.
>JJB: DIINOST 13I DI.OT +20 175
#note 0:55 [16:15] (diction 13i 24 +.1) Top two plays are almost identical.
>JR: IKW 12J K.WI +40 266
#note 0:33 [15:52] The closure is again mild, and this time the points are what matters; JR is almost 100 ahead.
>JJB: AINOSTX 11D OX +36 211
#note 1:58 [14:17] Nothing better.
>JR: ?EIJSU C9 JIvES +47 313
#note 3:44 [12:08] (jus n10 38 +22.2) JR elects to cash J, blank, and S at once, to lead by 102, but he is holding a U and other alternatives avail: juvie/oi/axe 52, juvie/vox 47, etc. Holding the blank would still allow jus/kiwis 38, Quackle's preference. This has a risk of setting JR's lead back.
>JJB: AINORST 14A RATIONS +80 291
#note 0:32 [13:45] And JJB knows and has the hook (though JR need not sweat it, as there were also a6 and n6).
>JR: ELOU A12 LO.E +15 328
#note ~1:38 [~10:30] (euro a12 15 +4.9) JR still wants to hold the case U.
>JJB: AAEGINQ 10B Q. +31 322
#note 0:09 [13:36] In two turns JJB closes the gap from 102 to 6.
>JR: EGUV M3 VEG +25 353
#note ~1:27 [9:03]
>JJB: AAEGINP A6 AGIN +20 342
#note 3:27 [10:06] (pa 9e 21 +9.8) Now JJB's last two draws are not favoring his win chances. He still hopes fondly to use row 15, about the only bingo option without an S or blank remaining, and he is neglecting the need to cash his P. Pa/pax/car 21 will get him about 35% win chances, and the simple pain 15e 26 about 30%, with agin holding out at about 25%. But, even better, as g13 3 or aa 13f 8 both allow 45%-50% win chances by converting the S into a directed hook that will likely cash the P and may bingo yet. An g4 2 similarly wins about 40% due to its fecund hook. JJB spots the possibility of as, but doesn't engage the strategy until the next turn, a key tempo lost.
>JR: ENUY 12C .YEN +34 387
#note 0:38 [8:25] JR meanwhile can keep up pressure, finally using 12d.
>JJB: AEEENPU G13 A. +3 345
#note 7:08 [3:01] (pee 11m 10 +23.8; ba g10 6 +3) With 4 in bag, suddenly as 3 wins only 1% of cases now. The static choice of pee/pit 10 will only win about 2% of cases. Another 3-tile play, donee 3a 12, gets to about 10%, very difficult to block, and it seems to be the recommendation.
>JR: AETU 15D TEA +11 398
#note 3:25 [5:00] (uta 4e 14 +8.4; eta 4e 14 +3) JR is wise to JJB using the P and decides that if opponent is sacking points he can sack a few too to block it and empty the bag. And that is sometimes the point of a threat anyway.
>JJB: EEEINPU J12 ..P +15 360
#note 2:47 [0:14] (up 4e 15, doum 3a 14, nee 11m 6, eel 14l 16, bogie 5k 8+4 +4) Now JJB has drawn into having no outs in two at all. Unpin 10 would threaten epee but could be blocked. Opponent is not going out in two either, requiring JJB to go out in three; with up/uta/pow 15 best play appears to net 3 to him. Kip 15 drags the game out and is not likely to let JJB go out even with three plays; but it's the best immediate score he can find in his last 3 minutes.
>JR: EELLMRU 4E EMU +18 416
#note ~1:30 [~3:30] JR finds the best scorer that also allows him to go out in two more plays.
>JJB: EEEINU 3G NEE +9 369
#note 0:08 [0:06] (ern 4a 15, fell 4l 8, lib g8 12, reclads 8d 11+6 +6) Now JJB is playing ferally just to finish up in time. Ern/vide/no 15 would add points and remove opponent's thread of doll 10.
>JR: ELLR 3A ..LL +8 424
#note ~0:50 [~2:40] (adjust score +2) JR is also a little hasty and underscores doll by 2. Either order, doll or reclads first, is optimal.
>JJB: EIU 4L ..U +6 375
#note 0:02 [0:04] (if 9g 12, reclads 11+4 +6) JJB had enough time on JR's clock to spot lib/if 12 or vide/er 12, but it didn't manifest.
>JR: ER L12 ..RE +8 432
#note ~0:19 [2:21] (reclads 11+4 +3) And JR had enough time to find reclads for 3 more, which would have been a fitting conclusion to his first play. Ree/ere 9 at h1 also play.
>JR: (EI) +4 436
#note While both players were playing sharply, JJB's draws after he reduced his deficit to 6 were significantly worse than JR's, and JJB's attempt to save a bingo was intuitively right but badly mistimed, becoming a greater error than JR's opening of jives/t. Known points available: JR 17, JJB 19. Overall points available: JR 51.4+, JJB 63.1.
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