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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Noah Noah
#player2 Josh Josh
>Noah: ELORRWZ 8G ZERO +26 26
>Josh: AAINOTU G7 A.O +14 14
#note considered this and UTA 9E as candidates. This didn't seem so terrible, even if he happened to be able to block
>Noah: LMPRTW H7 M.WL +18 44
#note Pretty sure I had this tiles, I think I might've left the ? also, perhaps the I.
>Josh: ?ACINTU I6 CU.TAINs +76 90
#note it's going to be really hard to control this board after this, but also after TACItU(R)N, which I missed. MEWLS I guess is more blockable than ZEROS. #questionable
>Noah: ?EIOPRT K5 PROsTIE +95 139
>Josh: AEKLTYY L11 TALKY +34 124
#note A lot of things seems close here. L2 KYTE/TYKE to not open a huge scoring spot, LEAKY in the same spot as this, and the standout option from Quackle, 13I (s)KYEY, which encourages plays at 12L and sets up best to bingo next turn. That might be best. #questionable
>Noah: DEEGORR 15G GREED. +33 172
>Josh: EEINRVY L2 ENVIER +26 150
#note This turn was very interesting. Just fishing the Y at J14 is the best brute force play by far, but it becomes much worse when Noah makes a blocking play of the N/S of CURTAINS after the clear telegraphing of my thin range of possible leaves. I can't have an O, I can't have an A, I basically have to have an E and an I at the very least, and something that hits the S/N relatively hard. There is no way that the play of YE yields many bingos in practice. I saw that I would hit NERVIER/VERNIER/VEINIER at L2 Quackle likes Y(E) by 13(!) points over anything else but that's just 8 letters. Who knows, maybe it's still the best play because it blocks the huge scoring spot as well as hits bingos sometimes. Maybe Noah will think I'm hitting other weird spots like L2 and column M often enough that he won't sacrifice a ton to block, but I doubt it. (K)YE might be a bit more sensible if I want to bingo, as it telegraphs an S I don't have, but I think that's another weakening play as even if Noah responds by wasting an S, I will still be behind a tempo after 3 plies. The problem here is that the 14J spot is huge, and Noah is slightly more likely than I am to be able to hit it. I can also play RE(K)EY which scores an impressive 35 points. (L)EVY blocks the worst of the spot and leaves well. And then there was the play I chose to try and hit the spot next turn, and open the board whether or not I hit the spot. This set me down a tough path. Noah's range is slightly less heavy than average so his ability to hit the 14J spot isn't as bad as it would be normally I think. But I don't know, is Y(E) worth playing still? My real average score is not 56 points like Quackle thinks, it's probably more like 40-45, but his average score is also lower, though his long-term numbers are probably better than Quackle suggests as well. But with other plays his average score should also be a bit lower given his range of less heavy stuff. Y(E) I think is still a candidate option but very hard to evaluate.
>Noah: FMOORUU G13 FU. +11 183
#note This is a weird play -- I kind of played it on an impulse, though after thinking for a while, noticing it was a setup -- looking back now, not a good one for my M -- but also might trick Josh into thinking I have the X. ROOMSFUL is pretty cool here. RUFOUs 13D seems decent.
>Josh: BIORSUY 13D BUR.I. +10 160
#note I decided FU(G) was such a weird play that it had to be a setup an overwhelming majority of the time. I did a bunch of estimations here and determined that this was barely worth playing if his play was a setup 80% of the time. However, what I failed to analyze was that this does block the hardest-hitting X plays, but gives back easy -AX plays in return which score around 40 points, so I'm not actually reducing Noah's average score by nearly as much as I thought I was. My other thought here was YO(K). I thought his range was specific enough now that the 14K spot would be mine a lot and that I could draw YO(K)ES or even something better a lot of the time. On paper I average well after BUR(F)I(s), but not nearly enough. There are plays that average more immediately as well, such as the bingo-seeking plays of M7 BUY and BUOY. BUR(F)I(s) should edge those out pretty convincingly in the turns after next, though. Even when I specify OUX as a partial rack leave, BUR(F)I(s) performs remarkably worse than YO(K). And unfortunately, just like Noah, I missed a cool disconnected play that solves most of my problems and keeps the game much closer. 13G (F)U(s)IB(L)Y is the way to go here. It blocks any setup potential better than any other candidate play and scores well. It does block the 14J spot which I still thought was a good asset, but that's OK. I've already tried to draw into a big play there and failed, no need to put all my eggs in one basket with the score so close. A ton of time and thought went into this play, and it's a glaring error. Tunnel visioning into not seeing that this didn't rid the board of big X plays like I wanted it to, as well as setting myself up for only one good outcome. #strategylarge #findinglarge
>Noah: GMOORUV 2H VOGU. +13 196
#note I saw VROOM pre-turn, but seemingly didn't notice it at 14A. It looks like the play here.
>Josh: AFNNOSY 14J YO. +34 194
#note I fail again at drawing anything substantial in this 14J spot, and now I am wading on a board where my S has little value and I'm down a full tempo. I also missed D10 FAN(B)OY which might be best considering Noah's ugly range. But blocking scoring spots might also be a good response to that range. #questionable
>Noah: GMO F11 GO.M +23 219
#note Maybe ADRT for the leave here.
>Josh: AFIJNNS E7 NINJA +30 224
#note now I'm pretty much completely 50/50 about whether Noah has the X, and when I make this play, I'm closer and closer to realizing FU(G) was not an X setup. The best play here is 3I FIN(N)AN. That's a huge miss once again #findinglarge
>Noah: AADDERT M2 DA +21 240
#note This leave makes sense given my next play, I'm not certain of it though.
>Josh: AFOOPSX D6 FOX +40 264
#note Drawing the X was so painful, but at least I felt the game was somewhat even at this point despite my attempts to sabotage it with BUR(F)I(s). I had realized at this point that my play had allowed -AX words and was really upset. Also, I could be better off here playing POX and keeping the F considering Noah's last play. I think the defense is well worth it here. #tacticssmall
>Noah: ABDEERT C1 TABERED +85 325
#note Seemingly underscored by 1.
>Josh: AEIOPQS 1A QA. +36 300
#note Very dire straits. Could be time to use my S for 6 points with no S hooks and 3 more to come. #questionable
>Noah: AHIILNS M11 AHIS +37 362
#note I'm also certain of this rack, given that I have "37 ILN written down on my scoresheet". If it's right, I can just play SHIN D1 here, which looks straightforwardly way better.
>Josh: CEEIOPS 4A PI.CE +24 324
#note the only decent play here. I need to open a new lane and score.
>Noah: EILLNSW 2B W.LIE +30 392
>Josh: DENOSTT 4A .....D +11 335
#note This seemed lost. I went to under 10 seconds on the clock here. I needed to win under any circumstance, but this wasn't going to do it for me. POSTTEEN/POTTEENS but I don't have a backup and PHIAL puts Noah up 87. Best play is probably M7 TOD for spread. I could I guess win with playing the T and Noah missing LASHINS and PENTODES and try to block DENOTES. I wasn't keen on PENTODES for some reason.
>Noah: AEHILNS N5 INHALES +68 460
#note Final recorded score 473-335
>Noah: (ENOSSTT) +14 474
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