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#player1 kacattac kacattac
#player2 mahomes mahomes
#description Created with Macondo
>kacattac: IINPRSY H7 PINY +18 18
#note 27 January 2021
Club 44
woogles.io
Game 2
>mahomes: EINOOUY G5 YOU +12 12
>kacattac: DEGINRS 5F S.RINGED +76 94
>mahomes: DEINORT L2 ORI.NTED +70 82
>kacattac: CEHSTTW 8K W.CHT +39 133
>mahomes: AAIMNRV H1 INVA. +27 109
>kacattac: EEEOSTU 3J EU.O +8 141
#note Batting 1.000 so far! So yes, I did need a warmup game this week. This turn was challenging. 2B OUTSEE(N) was really tempting, and it sims only 1.5 worse than this.
>mahomes: ABDEMRS 2H .AB +21 130
>kacattac: EEIQSTX N8 .EX +29 170
#note Sims best. Dropping the Q requires sacrificing either points or the S.
>mahomes: DEMNRSS 2L .MS +14 144
>kacattac: AEIQSTW F2 QAT. +33 203
>mahomes: DEFNRSU 1H .F +10 154
>kacattac: EGGIRSW O8 .WIGGERS +109 312
>kacattac: EGGIRSW -- -109 203
#note I'm three years rusty on EI sevens and can't talk myself into SWIGGER. I'm 90% sure that TWIGGERS is phoney, but I decide that showing opp my rack here could still inflict some psychological damage, and/or that opp could give me a floater to play through next turn, and/or that I could subsequently gamble on SWIGGER. What I could have noticed instead is that just (T)WIG here still leaves me in a commanding position, 86% to win per the sim. TWIG is how winning players continue to win even when their process breaks down. TWIG is hitting singles and hitting for average, whereas TWIGGERS* is swinging for the fences, missing, spinning around and falling on your arse.
>mahomes: ADENRSU F7 DANSEUR +66 220
>kacattac: EGGIRSW O8 .WIG +22 225
#note Still chickening out of SWIGGER. At least I think of this now. This is a 25% loss in the win% area, per sim. Ouch.
>mahomes: DEFLLLT 11B FELL.D +20 240
>kacattac: ?AEGNRS 12I GARNEtS +76 301
>mahomes: BHIILOT 8A LITHI. +39 279
>kacattac: AEIKOTU 12A KETO +37 338
#note The most challenging/interesting turn of the evening. This does sim best by a coupla points, same at two-, four- and six-ply depths. What I really wanted to play, though, was (H)UT(L)IKE, which I did see but couldn't talk myself into. I think HUTLIKE is clearly better because it makes opp's life much more difficult than KETO does. KETO actually incentivizes opp to open another lane by playing down from the K for a decent score. And HUTLIKE leaves AO instead of AIU, which as we shall see is nothing to sneeze at.
>mahomes: ABEIJOZ 13B ZA +43 322
>kacattac: AEEIOOU K10 OU.IE +10 348
#note Sim really likes exchanging, and hates this play at four-ply depth though it is not so bad at two-ply. I thought it was more likely opp has a bingo than that he has the J, hence I all but eliminate (DANSEUR)s bingos and keep best possible leave for an unlikely counterbingo through whatever floaters remain next turn. Clearly most or all of this thinking was erroneous, and the results were somewhat unlucky even so. I do think that this was not the worst time for a bold all-or-nothing play, and OURIE is at least better than either of the EAU options I considered. Exchanging here is also bold, bolder actually than I was willing to be, and is also all-or-nothing. It feels like a loss of control though, and losses of control are difficult for non-robot players to abide.
>mahomes: BEIJLOV 14J J.BEL +60 382
>kacattac: AAEEOOP 15H APO +24 372
#note Highest equity play, though sim says I have ever so slightly better chances to win if I don't empty the bag here.
>mahomes: ?ACIORV A1 COrRIVA. +89 471
>mahomes: (AEEMORT) +18 489
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