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#player1 Mack Mack
#player2 Will Will
>Mack: ALMNPUX H7 MUX +24 24
#note Round 9 of the ISC Longest Day tournament. Games are 20 minutes per side and VOID challenge.
>Will: AAAEGOV G9 AGAVE +21 21
>Mack: AIILNPR F7 LIPA +25 49
>Will: AADFOOR E10 FADO +23 44
>Mack: AIINNNR D12 INN +14 63
#note Not much else to do here, plus this has the benefit of sometimes inducing Will to sacrifice points to block if he incorrectly assumes I have the S.
>Will: ACLOQRU C9 CLARO +30 74
>Mack: ADINNRZ 12G .IZARD +40 103
>Will: BEGQSUU 15D SQUEG +53 127
>Mack: AELNNOU E3 NOUNAL +16 119
#note Since it was VOID I tried UNLOANED* even though I was 95% sure it was phony. I am quite rusty but I'd like to think in a double game I'd have held myself back.
>Will: BLMOTUW 4A BLOW.UT +30 157
>Mack: BDEEGRW A1 WEB.ED +42 161
>Will: AACMOTY I3 ATOMY +26 183
>Mack: EGIIORT J3 GIRO +20 181
>Will: ACEKOSS M10 CASK +40 223
>Mack: DEIOPTY K4 TEPOY +36 217
#note Didn't see B1 ODYL which has better equity, but I like TEPOY significantly better since turnover is at a premium with both blanks out. Also I'd actually rather not keep an E here with 7 (!) still unseen.
>Will: EEHIOST 14J HEIST +43 266
#note Tough call for Will, this is a lot of points but giving back the O column is pretty scary with ??S out. If I recall the general consensus in Twitch chat was that L2 HOISE was best, scoring just 7 less than HEIST while giving much less back and getting the same amount of turnover for the blanks. Looks pretty good to me - if I hit the W he's probably sunk, but that's relatively unlikely and if I don't I'm actually in a good deal of trouble being down 40 on a board with nowhere else to bingo.
>Mack: ?DEFINR O8 FRIENDs +91 308
#note As a case in point, I really don't have much here after L2 HOISE - I either have to fish with something like 3L OF or try to outscore with B2 DELF, neither of which look great. Still by no means out of the woods here though - have to hope he doesn't bingo back on column N, which FRIENDs seemed to do the best job at preventing since it forces him to end in a vowel unlike the other three options.
>Will: EEIJORV 12A JE... +21 287
#note Another really tough position for Will. The obvious N6 JOE looks pretty futile - I'll be up 10 and a tempo with no column N bingos to worry about and keeping the V is definitely going to be a liability for him in the endgame. So it seems he needs to at least keep some prospects of bingoing open and not totally commit to outscoring. The problem is it's very hard for him to bingo from the W while keeping the V even if he draws the blank, and in almost all circumstances I'm going to block column N over the W.
So his main path to winning appears to be not actually bingoing himself, but inducing me to block column N for a small score then drawing well enough to outscore me in the endgame without bingoing. His play of JERID looks strong in this regard, leaving him JIVE for 42 next turn if I block column N. Of course if I bingo on column N (which happens pretty often and almost always when I have the blank) he's sunk but that goes for anything except N6 JOE which as we said earlier basically always will just lose in the endgame.
Another option the chat seemed to like is F2 JEU, which scores 7 more than JERID. It blocks the W, which is actually a benefit for Will - he basically never bingos there anyway and there are several game-ending racks I could have there that don't bingo on column N, such as WHITENER, WINERIES, WHINIEST. The problem is after I block column N, he doesn't have JIVE - in fact, where does he have to score much at all with his EIORV leave? He's still down 14 after JEU, which will be about 25 after I block column N, and it seems quite hard for him to make this up especially without any good places for the V.
One thing to note is depending on what I have, blocking column N effectively may actually be deceptively difficult. Say I have EEINRTT for instance, most things give back bingos on column M or large scores on column O that may be enough for Will to outrun be without bingoing. Even TYIN gives back -ION stuff. And depending on what I do, especially if I do open column O, it will be nice to have the flexibility that JEU affords him. After JERID, he's 100% committed to JIVE next turn, whereas JEU allows him to adjust his play next turn to maximize scoring or his chances of going out in two.
So which is best? It seems really close, both JEU and JERID have their advantages and disadvantages. Neither one wins often at all - I'd say he almost certainly needs to draw the blank, and even then he'll probably need other things to go his way. Very tough call.
>Mack: ?EEEHTT 3C HE. +27 335
#note I saw EsTHETE immediately, but thought longer since it has the problem of losing to L1 IONISER by 2. This happens with a probability of 3*2*1/(10 choose 3) = 6/120=5%, which is not a lot but not nothing. I correctly determined that he has no playable bingos besides IONISER and N2 IRONISE in the pool.
After HEN I easily outrun JIVE in all cases and he can't fish off one tile to set up a new lane - there's nothing he can play up top. If he fishes and draws into the IONISER rack I can easily block both L1 IONISER and N2 IRONISE and win. So HEN is at least as good as EsTHETE. But it's even better: if he does have IONISER or IRONISE and I draw IR, I bingo out with WITTEREd and win. If I draw IV, I bingo out with N2 VIdETTE to beat IONISER; if he plays IRONISE to stop column N bingos, JIVE for me ends up outrunning him by 5 after he goes out with 8M REF. The only issue is if I draw RV, after which I can't bingo back after IONISER and JiVE now loses easily to 13M KID. So HEN loses only if he bingos with IONISER and I draw RV, which happens 2/120 = 1/60 ≈ 1.7%, still not perfect but better than the 5% of EsTHETE.
I had about 8 minutes to make this move, and had processed basically everything I wrote above by the time I had 15 seconds left, after which I played HEN. Looking at it now, I'm not finding a play that allows IONISER and wins 100%, i.e. with every possible draw after IONISER. Playing off ET with BET wins with RV because of WHaTEVER and IR because of WITHEREd, but loses with IV - I can't bingo out with THIEVE? and JIVE will lose after he goes out with his R. Note that N9 EH is worse than HEN as I need column N to be able to bingo out with VIdETTE after an IV draw.
It seems that there is a play that blocks IONISER and wins 100%, which I did see during the game and Joel Sherman suggested after the game but both of us assumed would sometimes lose to JIVE or REJOIN in the endgame: the simple block of 8K YEH which stops him from bingoing. The thing is with an I draw I have ZITs/THEISTS/SQUEGs for 37 points, which I did not see. After JIVE he has 5 of IINORRS; if he has INORS, the only decent combo, I bingo out with WITTEREd. After REJOIN he has 3 of IIRVS; if IVS then WITTEREd once again comes down, and if IRS or IRV then ZITs wins. JOIN doesn't help him since it scores even less and leaves him with 5 of EIIRRSV; once again he can't have EIRSV, the only good combo, because of WITTEREd. Essentially this boils down to: after he plays from the J he'll either have duplicate Is or Rs and lose due to an inflexible endgame rack, or he won't and I'll bingo out with WITTEREd and win.
Another crazy position, of which there were many towards the end of this game. Happy I took the time to figure out passing up EsTHETE was correct, but it seems I could've done even better and gotten a guaranteed win.
>Will: EIINORV A12 .IVE +42 329
#note At the expense of some spread, Will can actually barely outrun TRIJETS and win here with a blank draw with either KID (going for WINgOVER or cORVINE) or C2 OHO (going for mINIVER/mOHO or VItRINE). Given I played HEN and didn't bingo, suggesting I'm more likely than normal not to have the blank, he should almost definitely go for one of these plays here if he sees it. In fairness, though, these fishes are not easy to see and he was already down to under 30 seconds (while streaming AND wearing the distracting glasses I used my channel points to force him to wear during our game, no less!)
>Mack: ?EEISTT L1 bETISE +30 365
#note Tanked for a while here thinking I must be missing a bingo, then slapped this down with about 8 seconds left before forfeiting. Missed ZITS.
>Will: INORR 1L .ORN +9 338
>Mack: T C2 T.. +6 371
#note Missing THEISTS yet again. Very interesting game, and an uncharacteristically low-scoring and bingo-unfriendly one for me and Will. I lost 10 points on time, so 365-338 final.
>Mack: (IR) +4 375
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