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#player1 Mike_B Mike B
#player2 Carl Carl
>Mike_B: HWY H7 WHY +24 24
>Carl: EEFIRTU G6 FEU +18 18
>Mike_B: IIII -IIII +0 24
>Carl: AEIRTTZ F5 ZIT +27 45
#note This wins the sim, but ZAIRE F2 for 43 is pretty close. Tough decision.
>Mike_B: EF 5D FE. +30 54
>Carl: AAAERST D4 A.AR +14 59
#note AA 6C wins the sim. It's worth it to sacrifice 7 points to retain the AERST leave. (-6)
>Mike_B: ABNR C6 BARN +15 69
>Carl: ACEQSTU B9 ACQUEST +100 159
>Mike_B: VX 13A V.X +26 95
#note Mike took nearly six minutes on this play, betraying that he has at least one blank. I gave him credit for both.
>Carl: ACDNOOU A13 .AU +26 185
#note Were it not for that inference, other options like QUOD look pretty good. CONDO B2 wins the sim here, but I have to block the 3x3.
>Mike_B: EJT A7 JET +33 128
>Carl: CDILNOO B2 CONDO +27 212
>Mike_B: BD 3A B.D +12 140
>Carl: EGGIILM -EGGIILM +0 212
#note I saw sim-winner GLIM D9 but thought that keeping GIE with so many Is and Es unseen seemed gross, especially with the bingo coming. Additionally, GLIM adds some new bingo lanes on rows 11 and 12, which, if realized, leave the board fairly closed to bingos, whereas the existing lanes open up a lot of floaters or scoring options. As it turned out, GLIM would have preempted Mike's best play. (-10)
>Mike_B: ??DEIPR D9 sPIRtED +86 226
>Carl: AEENOOT 15D .ONATE +21 233
#note BOO A3 and DONEE are also reasonable options. They all sim about the same, and I had trouble deciding between them. Exchanging 7 royally backfired. No use making infrerences if they're going to make you play worse.
>Mike_B: ADELORT 11D .DOLATER +86 312
>Carl: EIMOORU 10J MOI +23 256
#note In just two turns, my solid lead has become a solid deficit. MOUE 10J wins the sim, but I can't be faulted for wanting to unload the I given 6 unseen. (-3)
>Mike_B: IKLTY M8 KILTY +19 331
>Carl: EIMORSU 14I MOUSIER +76 332
>Mike_B: GIO O12 GI.O +21 352
>Carl: EEGINSW 10D .EW +32 364
#note Just like that, I'm favored to win again. This game is crazy like that.
>Mike_B: LOV 8J VOL. +12 364
>Carl: AEGINPS 12F PIG +23 387
#note A fascinating and humbling position beyond my comprehension. I think we can assume that Mike has the other S after VOLK, and there may be other inferences to be made. (For instance, no AI for VAKIL; Mike's rack is more likely than not to be consonant-heavy). As I saw it, after something like PIG or GAPY, I have a decided advantage if neither of us bingo. I didn't really see any single-tile fishes that hit often enough to be worth it. Worse yet, those plays don't score so much and leave 4 in the bag. It seemed like PIG was more likely to hit a bingo than GAPY, and the 6 point difference between them was negligible since I would almost always play out first if he does not bingo. Quackle plays PINE or PAGE here and says those plays win >70% of the time. My play wins 57%. (-10)
>Mike_B: AGHINRS 14F AH +16 380
#note Maybe Quackle is wrong. 20 out of 165 combinations (12%) I can draw after PIG yield a bingo (assuming the S is on Mike's rack). But only 61 out of 1485 possibilities (4%) yield a bingo after PAGE. However, that's not factoring in the 8s that are possible when Mike bingos. Fishing off 1 isn't a viable option, because nothing hits the pool often enough, and now I'm vulnerable to losing in those situations where neither of us draw a bingo.
>Carl: AEEILNS N3 ALIENS +20 407
#note Since it is more likely than chance that the bag contains vowels, and bingos ending with S generally contain a higher concentration of consonants, maybe we should consider something like GIE or PIE instead of PIG. Or maybe this is just an impossible situation where there's no standout play, and there's too many possibilities to cycle through all of them.
>Mike_B: EGINNRS I1 GINNERS +68 448
#note Is there a benefit to leaving one in the bag? After PIG, Mike has the option of fishing off one, and letting me empty the bag. After PAGE, Mike doesn't have that luxury.
>Mike_B: (E) +2 450
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