| Player 1 |
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#player1 cesar cesar
#player2 jackson jackson
>cesar: ?AAEEJW 8F AJEE +22 22
#note i underestimated my bingo % here after JAW. i thought there's too many ways a leave of AEE? can go wrong, and that i was more likely to bingo with the AW? but JAW bingoes 48% and AJEE 37% next turn! totally way off. -3.5
>jackson: AEGILPR I3 PERIG.AL +67 67
#note big mistake to play upwards here, I7 or H7 both restrict the top a lot better. I thought I3 was lowering his average a bit but it isn't
>cesar: ?AEFOVW H1 AVOW +55 77
#note i intuited that AVOW would be slightly better than any bingo here so i didn't look too hard. i should see WAVEFORm though (i wonder if i'd play it). WAVEOFf is the other one.
>jackson: ?AAEMRT 10B MATERnA. +67 134
#note ametropia is a good word!
>cesar: ?EFKNOO G3 KEF +35 112
#note i didn't want to keep the K, but G3 FOO is a little bit better. NOO kinda sucks as a leave even with the blank. KEF does bingo slightly more often next turn, but FOO results in a higher average score. -2
>jackson: HNOPTTU 11A PUTON +26 160
>cesar: ?ADINOO - +0 112
#note so bad. as soon as he laid it down, alarm bells started ringing. i almost didn't challenge, but then decided that i need to trust my instincts more often. i just didn't like the word. i gotta go back to study my 5s. and it wasn't until after i came back that i realized that i had ADOr(AT)ION .. i should at least have looked.
>jackson: EEGHOST 12A OGEE +32 192
>cesar: ?ADINOO A11 ..DIA +24 136
>jackson: DHLNSST C9 H...D +26 218
#note I didn't consider enough 6G plays - a lot of the best static ones give back an annoying E hook, but SNIT or SLIT are both cool! even though I have SS it's nice to close the KEFS spot to make the top left really hard to access - the 1 row does still need to be dealt with though.
NTH j1 is cool for that, shedding a reasonable number of consonants. it sets up my S for some scoring plays which could potentially not give much back. HATED wins a sim ahead of NTH, but I'm not sure. HATED isn't very proactive with anything except for scoring, and it has a really risky leave. at least I can block row 6 next turn, but I think NTH or SNIT are fine.
it's nice to keep row 1 open given my consonant heavy leave, but it's still worth blocking with my lead.
>cesar: ?NOOOSU 6A OzONOUS +69 205
#note this is kind of a clutch find. after drawing the third O and then his fish i basically gave up on this game, but then this just popped into my head. i didn't even go through the alphabet systematically with this rack
>jackson: EILNSST 1F EL.STINS +59 277
#note creating another hotspot to counter the A column
>cesar: BCELNRZ A4 BR.NZE +60 265
>jackson: BEIOOTY 5C BOY +32 309
#note looks worth it - the pool is consonant heavy so EIOT isn't so bad.
>cesar: CDILMUU 2B MUCID +35 300
#note i wouldn't have been at all surprised if he'd had the X, but i felt lucky that he didn't. this would suck if he drew it next turn, but maybe i will.
>jackson: EEFINOT J5 EF +28 337
>cesar: AILTUWX 1A WAX +52 352
>jackson: EINNOQT K4 QI +28 365
#note obv a forced play, but it's nice that I have the case Ns and there are lots of Is to be drawn - it's pretty likely I can hit the QI/IN spot next turn
>cesar: EHILTUV L1 .EVI +36 388
#note i thought NEVI was better than QUILT just for defensive reasons, but the problem with NEVI i guess is that if he has the S it's now super valuable and very hard to block. tough move. i thought he'd played QI keeping the S. quackle sims these very closely together, but gives QUILT a slight win % edge, around 1%
>jackson: EINNOST 7D ON +11 376
#note I liked playing here to give myself the option of bingoing or of outrunning - blocking the 4a scoring spot (BRAY, BLAH, etc.) helps me outrun, especially with my case S that I can set up in the future. I considered TON in the same spot for 8 more, but I get a lot of bingo % from the T. there's always the aspect that scoring extra points makes it less comfortable for him to block, but I didn't think there was a nice way of him blocking anyways. If there were better ways of blocking I might go with ON 11G, but I didn't mind not going all in for the bingo and keeping both doors open. this wins a sim but of course I could imagine the more aggressive routes of TON (to outscore) or 11G ON (to bingo) being better
>cesar: DHLRTUY 9H T.RDY +12 400
#note to me, his last move was a very clear telegraph of the S. i could be wrong, but i don't think he would play that if he thought I had the S. i probably need some help with this move. TARDY was an attempt to block the S hook on QI, at the expense of giving him some letters to bingo through. quackle likes 9G UTA, which i didn't see because i thought the blank was the letter i. i also considered H(ONO)R, BOY/YON, and even maternally (or materially, lol). TARDY does cut his bingo % by the most, but it keeps a poor leave and he can probably just outrun me with the S. i did like that if he goes to the triple lane then i have full knowledge of his rack. finally, i liked that if he bingoed through TARDY, he'd probably give me a few letters to draw a miracle bingo through. what does everyone like here?
>jackson: EIINRST K7 IN.ITERS +68 444
#note 5,000 iterations has him bingoing just under 9% of the time! I was thinking higher than that. his range is fairly random after tardy, I think. there aren't enough reasonable ways to block to allow him to choose a play with a good leave.
Q says I only win 80% though, not 91%, so apparently he can outrun sometimes? I guess out in twos making stuff like NATCH could outrun.
>cesar: ACGHLRU 12H RUG.LACH +88 488
#note insanely lucky. after challenging PUTON, to be able to play BRONZE because he had a bingo elsewhere, to draw the X after MUCID, and then this.
>cesar: (AILT) +8 496
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