| Player 1 |
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#player1 Kenneth_Rubin Kenneth Rubin
#player2 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
>Kenneth_Rubin: UX 8G XU +18 18
>Joshua_Sokol: AIMNORT H2 MINOTA.R +61 61
#note I decided to phony intentionally here.
The difference in valuation between this and losing my turn is 50 points. However, with perfect rack information, Ken can likely gain up to 10 more points on average from precise play, or perhaps he can lose points by overthinking the position, spending a lot of time and missing a possible response of mine.
But let's say he gets 10 points, so losing my turn would be 35 or so points worse than playing 7G OM or 9G IT. The phony is 25 equity points better than the best play here if you don't consider the value of setting up a phony S-hook. Down the line it is incredibly likely that Ken plays something with MINOTAURS*, I'd say around 75% at the very least. So 75% of the time I gain 40 points from a won challenge, which equates to 30 points on average. So when MINOTAUR* goes unchallenged, I gain 55 more points than with optimal play, whereas I lose 30 from losing my turn. This is not counting the times where I can hook MINOTAURS* and get away with it.
Once this sort of phony is let go, an opponent will almost always view it as a valid word. This is the psychology of the game. Given the estimated numbers of 55 and 30 equity gain vs loss over optimal play, if I am even only 35% sure I will get away with MINOTAUR*, I should play it. This is without mentioning the possible benefits of forcing Ken to react to my full rack on his next turn and possibly screw up, which makes it more likely he will suffer miniature psychological trauma in future turns causing him to play worse than he would have otherwise.
That last part is a stretch. Or is it?
>Kenneth_Rubin: ACHW 5E CAH.W +26 44
#note He might not even let it go because he likes it though, he might also let it go because it gives him much better playthrough options such as a bingo, which is not very good for me and my plan.
>Joshua_Sokol: AEKLOUW 6F WO. +32 93
#note G1 WOK has increased value as it makes plays hooking MINOTAURS* even more likely given the considerably closed state of the board.
>Kenneth_Rubin: EVV 3G V.VE +18 62
>Joshua_Sokol: AACEKLU 2J AUK +13 106
#note I would normally play ALACK but I am slowly coaxing Ken into my trap. I might also play on row 9, but once again, I don't want to disturb the coaxing
>Kenneth_Rubin: DEEHIPU 10D DOZES +46 108
>Kenneth_Rubin: DEEHIPU -- -46 62
#note yes, it worked. Ken stared at me for like a full minute when I insta-challenged this. Reminded me of Ross Brown. But Ken is a nice guy, he won't hate me forever for this. He knows it's a part of the game.
>Joshua_Sokol: ACEILOS G5 ..A. +18 124
#note maybe I should try E(U)SOCIAL K1. Ha. That would have been dumb. Fishing the O is better not only because it's a better fish but also because it leaves the A for any plays overlapping the Z. I thought this put the board in very nice lockdown, blocked any (A)ZO ideas and put Ken in relative zugzwang, but I think it's better to play (V)O(W) I3 in hindsight.
>Kenneth_Rubin: DEOSZ M2 SEZ +32 94
>Joshua_Sokol: CEILOSU 4K CU. +28 152
#note after (V)O(W) I have AU(R)ICLES
There was a time where I would never make this play. But it's the best play. There are still a couple of threats that I can't deal with very convincingly, so just go aggressive, I'm only ahead 30 and he can fork the board very efficiently if I don't do this. Now he has one shot.
>Kenneth_Rubin: DE G5 ....ED +21 115
#note I held this and released. For some reason I thought COAX was the only OAX word to verbalize, but what I'm remembering is that COAXINGS is valid but HOAXINGS is not.
>Joshua_Sokol: AEILORS K4 .ALORIES +90 242
#note a very nice draw
>Kenneth_Rubin: BEGGLO J10 BOGGLE +30 145
#note wrong game bro
>Joshua_Sokol: EFLNTTU 15G UNF.LT +30 272
#note missing TEENFUL, very unfortunately. That's a great play.
>Kenneth_Rubin: DDILR 9B RIDDL.. +10 155
#note Does this take a G-hook?
>Joshua_Sokol: AAAEIST 8C AA +9 281
#note I guessed that RIDDLER had no hook, but that in certain situations I would let it go, so long as it didn't jeopardize my winning the game. This play was a solidification of the fact that the G hook was phony, but in reality I was much less certain. Given this I should give up on defending this board and play (R)IATA to outrun as much as possible.
>Kenneth_Rubin: IOR 13J .IRO +10 165
>Joshua_Sokol: AEEEIST 8K .ETIE +18 299
>Kenneth_Rubin: ?EIRSTT O2 RETITl.S +58 223
#note seeing the words he missed to the E was satisfying, except TREATIS(E). I missed that one. C3 dISTR(AI)TE is nice
Ken was most upset about missing (E)mITTERS than the other ones.
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AEIOSY 12L OY +19 318
#note Now I want to block huge Q plays at N10, but AYE on either side looks better to at least set up scoring
>Kenneth_Rubin: IJNO D8 ..JOIN +28 251
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AEIQST C12 QI +37 355
#note I now miss 13A QuA(N)TISE. Wa wa wee wah, what a spread breaker.
>Kenneth_Rubin: EEGINPP A3 PEEPING +100 351
#note cause now Ken strikes back. And it's one of the few positions I need to let this go despite my pretty certain certitude of the invalidity of the horizontal word.
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AAEHST 14A HASTE +43 398
>Kenneth_Rubin: BMNNORY 15A MY +47 398
>Joshua_Sokol: ?ADEF B5 FAD +23 421
#note was only 99% sure of HASTED. So much bled spred
>Kenneth_Rubin: BNNOR 13C ..BORN +13 411
>Joshua_Sokol: ?E 3E rE.... +11 432
#note E9 (D)oE?? nice job me
>Joshua_Sokol: (N) +2 434
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