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#player1 nelson nelson
#player2 jackson jackson
>nelson: ABNTY 8H BANTY +28 28
>jackson: EEIORSU 9E OURIE +14 14
#note OURIE, YOU, SUETIER. Also considered ETUI but it's a sorta needless risk, especially with the XQ bomb it sets up. I usually tend towards OURIE-type plays rather than SUETIER, unless I really want to lower risk. ES isn't really a risky leave though, YOU is really the risky play cause if I don't bingo I'm not scoring very well.
OURIE sims best, which makes me feel like it's the best play cuz quackle hates Ss
>nelson: DIIRV 8A VIRID +33 61
>jackson: EELMPRS 10C PERM +28 42
#note oh I didn't consider ELM! it's cool cause it sets up my P and SP- plays for a million. really autopiloted this play to my detriment
>nelson: FOU C10 .OUF +18 79
>jackson: ADEILSS L4 DIAL.SES +74 116
>nelson: ?EEEGIL 11G ELEGI.Ed +66 145
>jackson: CDINTVW 5I VIN.C +20 136
>nelson: AAQ 12A AQ.A +28 173
>jackson: ADEEPTW A11 P.WED +33 169
>nelson: AEH 7I HEA. +25 198
>jackson: AELNOST B3 TOENA.LS +73 242
>nelson: AOZ A1 ZOA +38 236
>jackson: ?DGIKLU M10 L.KU +18 260
>nelson: BC 13L C.B +7 243
>jackson: ?DFGHIJ 12M .IF +18 278
#note think I gotta do this. would suck if he hits the 13-15 row but it's not too likely, even given a strong range after CUB. surprisingly, Q really wants me to play FIG instead of KIF, even when an E is specified in his range!
this seems to be because leaving CUBE open benefits me more on average than him - I draw JE plays there a lot, especially since I can burn my blank to do so. Q really likes FIG also cause it lowers his bingo%, which is one reason I strongly considered it.
I think when he doesn't bingo he takes CUBE lot more than quackle will though, although I'm surprised because I imagine quackle would take CUBE a lot in a sim as well. I felt really good about KIF when I made it because I can still win after some bingoes as well, but now I'm thinking FIG could be stronger.
>nelson: AEEGINT 6A A.TIGENE +61 304
>jackson: ?DGHJMW K10 M.G +11 289
#note the thinking here is that I can still outrun a lot of the time. he only has the E a bit more than a third of the time, so the C2 and O12 hotspots aren't too threatening. The exchanges are probably doing a bit better than they should, since the sim has M? bingoing over 30% of the time, which doesn't seem right after Jeffrey plays defensively. I'm not big on the J here, but I like the DHW combo for consistent scoring.
I'll probably need to draw the E or the X to win here. considered (DOR)MED* if I were to draw an E, which is funny cause that word ended up being played later in the tournament by a psertain psychic
>nelson: X 14A .X +18 322
>jackson: ?DHJOTW C1 JOT +26 315
#note another advantage of not exchanging last turn is that my scoring route works well since Jeffrey will be playing a lot of bingo defense cause he feels confident that his lead is intact (DHJW? is a better scoring rack than he should expect me to have, so bingoes will be his primary concern).
I'm surprised JOT sims so well despite it raising his avg. score by almost 10 points. I doubt I'm winning after 1C plays since they empty the bag and put him up ~50 points. I can only win if I bingo out, which isn't likely with DHW?.
I'd like to know how often he hits the J, cause I think win-wise it's still probably the play, cause when he doesn't hit the J i'm in a pretty good position.
>nelson: AEIORRS 13C .RONTERS +65 387
>nelson: AEIORRS -- -65 322
>jackson: ?DHORUW 1C .ODHpUR +54 369
#note this wins cause I know AINOTY is in the bag
>nelson: ENORRST O12 .ERN +29 351
>jackson: AINOTWY H11 .AWNY +36 405
>nelson: ORST E12 SORT +18 369
#note decently happy with my play here - PERM was bad, should really find ELM and not autopilot. I'm really not sure about KIF and MIG, would appreciate insight!
>nelson: (IOT) +6 375
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