| Player 1 |
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#player1 Will Will Anderson
#player2 Ganesh Ganesh Asirvatham
>Will: GLLOOTW 8G GOWL +16 16
#note No need to allow AGLOW.
>Ganesh: AAKW 7F KAWA +28 28
>Will: AHLOPTT 6I PHOT +25 41
#note Other reasonable ideas - 9F LOTA, 6H THO, 9H PLOT. LOTA is easily most defensive, creating a horrible board for scoring without an S and leaving HPT to capitalize on any openings. PHOT gives up the potentially damaging J and Z spot and plays hooking PHOTO, but I reasoned that the gain to bingo% would push it over the top. Instead, PHOT lags about 1-2 points of valuation behind THO and LOTA. PHOT bingos only 30% compared to THO's 26%, which is nowhere near enough to bridge the 10 point gap in opp. avg. score.
>Ganesh: BFOU M3 BUFO +28 56
>Will: AILOOTT 9F TOOL +27 68
#note TOOL appears to be just a tick behind IOTA, same spot, but the numbers under the hood are nearly identical.
>Ganesh: EN 5K NE. +18 74
>Will: AEIISTU L5 ..UI +5 73
#note It's L5 ETUI or exchange - F9 TUI gets hit needlessly hard by QX and double doubles. This one isn't close - playing ETUI is better than exchanging to eliminate the big scoring spot on row 4 and grab 5 points, all while maintaining equal or better bingoing chances to simply exchanging.
>Ganesh: CDU F4 DUC. +17 91
>Will: AEIIIST 4B TEII. +12 85
#note Playing in a vacuum, I might opt to exchange and continue to max out my bingo%, but after ETUI Ganesh is bound to be on red alert and should attempt to block however he can, unless he's very strong himself. TEIID isn't great at creating new space for me, since it lets him reparallel and potentially close things off while scoring well, but it's better than just letting the board sit in its current state while I groom my rack, and it still bingos 31% (exchanges get me to 50%+).
>Ganesh: ?AEENST 10B NEATEnS +75 166
>Will: AINPRSS M8 SPRAINS +76 161
>Ganesh: EX L11 EX +38 204
>Will: EEINOTV N7 VOE +13 174
#note Tough call here. I had courage enough to make this move, obviously hoping to dodge the case S while creating a line that would be difficult to block without hemorrhaging equity, an outcome I felt I might induce sometimes. But I lacked the stomach for N1 EVO# or VOE, which really get walloped in response and allow Ganesh to close column O with a six letter word, which N7 VOE does not. Nevertheless, Quackle prefers them slightly to my move. I'm not so sure. Unfortunately, I missed the much more defensive 11A VOTEEN#, which looks correct even if closing so much of the board and tanking my bingo% seems a bit counterintuitive with a small deficit. 3A VETO also crossed my mind, but making OI really shuts down row 2 as a potential lane, so I didn't like it much.
>Ganesh: BEZ K9 BEZ +52 256
>Will: AAEILNT O9 ANTLIAE +79 253
>Ganesh: ?ADENOU C6 EUDA.mON +70 326
>Will: EGMNRRY B1 GEN.RY +49 302
>Ganesh: GIRT A6 TRIG +21 347
>Will: AMORRVY 12A MO.RY +26 328
#note Unfortunately, I had a moment's doubt in MARY# here and missed 12A VROOM. VROOM looks better than MOORY because it allows more letters to fit underneath it than MOORY does (I, Y) making it slightly more likely for me to get a 7 letter bingo down on row 13. Setting up A12 VARY as a baseline for next turn's scoring isn't bad either.
>Ganesh: CFI 5E F.CI +28 375
>Will: AEEHIRV 11E HE +31 359
#note The pool looks decent here - Quackle says I bingo about 28% here, and if Ganesh has the Q but not the I he could also be in major trouble in the endgame. HA actually appears to get about 0.3% more bingos down than HE.
>Ganesh: IQ 4H QI +42 417
>Will: AEIMRRV A12 .IRV +27 386
#note Not really consolation, but other plays like MARY#, VROOM or HA wouldn't have resulted in a winning bingo with the same draws. MIRV# is my best move here.
>Ganesh: ADDJLS I2 AJ. +18 435
>Will: AEMR J2 MA +29 415
#note Again best, not only to maximize spread but to give Ganesh another move to think about (he was low on time).
>Ganesh: DDLS 2H D..S +7 442
>Will: ER 1G RE +15 430
>Will: (DL) +6 436
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