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#player1 Dave Dave
#player2 Marlon_Prudencio Marlon Prudencio
>Dave: ADEIOTT 8G TO +4 4
#note This is a deceptively bad starting rack. Most of the short plays are not that good, and none of the leaves is really killer. Quackle's static analyzer does not even include many of them when you generate choices, but I added a number of them before simming, including OAT and TAO in the center, ITA starting or ending on the star, and even IOTA 8E setting up DIOTA. None of those plays simmed very well. The play I chose is the only short play that goes near the top of the sim. It's very close to level with the long play 8G TOITED. However, DIOTA 8D outperforms both of those by about 3 points of equity. DIOTA is the only play that Quackle thinks has a better than 50% win probability. Win probability may be a very rough estimate at this point in the game, but the fact that Quackle thinks every other play besides DIOTA means the opponent is the favorite with zero assumptions about opponent's rack gives an idea of how bad this opening rack actually is.
>Marlon_Prudencio: JOTUU G6 OU.JUT +22 22
>Dave: ADEEIKT F4 EIK +33 37
#note Not a whole lot to think about here. This is clearly the best play. All other scoring plays score about the same, but none of them has as good a leave.
>Marlon_Prudencio: AFGNO F10 GANOF +30 52
>Dave: ADDEFMT E11 FAMED +45 82
#note Clearly best, though FADED is not too much worse.
>Marlon_Prudencio: ?ACEELS 3C ALErCES +81 133
>Dave: ADGILTT H1 TI.D +21 103
#note This is a very frustrating situation where I'm both not scoring all that much and not keeping any great leaves. Championship player ranks GLED and TIED as virtually even at second best in the sim, a bit less than four points behind the leader, which is the somewhat surprising 4A LIGATE. It is unexpected to make an opening like that when you are not scoring all that well and the DT leave isn't anything that special. However, I think the reason for this play being favored is that just clearing out these letters fast and allowing for substantial rack improvement is better than most plays which play fewer tiles. Note that rack improvement in this case can mean either drawing bingo tiles or drawing heavy tiles, as with the A column, H1-H4, 15A-E, and even H10-15 spots open there are a lot of opportunities to score with big tiles if you can draw them.
>Marlon_Prudencio: HNOU 15A HOUN. +30 163
>Dave: AGLMNTW E2 M.WL +27 130
#note Best by a significant margin.
>Marlon_Prudencio: DEIOPRS I7 PERIODS +68 231
>Dave: AEGINRT 1H .REATING +80 210
>Marlon_Prudencio: EUY D1 YU.E +38 269
>Dave: IIIOPRW J5 IWI +18 228
#note Not the happiest draw of three I's for me, but IWI is clearly the way to clean this up. The main question is whether to play it in the high scoring spot of H13 or at J5 where I played it. I decided I preferred J5 to create a bingo lane on the K column, and because I did not like putting the I at 15H. I want to save that spot for a higher scoring play or at least put a letter better for starting row 15 bingos there. There is of course a chance that he will take out the K column, but with the A1 spot open, creating this extra volatility makes sense. His best play might be up top, leaving the bingo lane for me. Or if he takes out the bingo lane, I might get a scoring play up there which keeps me within striking distance and creates a new lane.
>Marlon_Prudencio: ACNNY K7 CANNY +27 296
>Dave: BEIOPRX 1A BOX. +48 276
#note It is so natural to make plays like XI 2J when that spot is open, but BOXY is a significantly better play in this game situation. The main reason is that the four point sacrifice is more than offset by the significantly better bingo chances. My play gets rid of the difficult BP combination, creates a new lane on column A, and also even keeps L1 open for bingos hooking to make PICE. Furthermore, it stops him from getting easy points at 1A himself to pad his lead.
>Marlon_Prudencio: AEGZ 8K .GAZE +51 347
>Dave: BEEIPRR D12 PER. +33 309
#note It is easy to get disheartened when you make a correct choice like BOXY to shed the B and immediately draw another one. But remember that if you had played XI and drew another B you would be in even worse shape with BBP on your rack. This was not that bad a draw because of the helpful PERN move. Though keeping the B is a bit worse than the P, PERN scores well and creates a useful SPAN hook, which I may need for a comeback bingo. You have to be patient sometimes and recognize that even if you are not getting your comeback bingo immediately, as long as you keep rolling the dice in a way that keeps you within a bingo range while creating more openings on the board, you are doing your job of laying the groundwork for that comeback.
>Marlon_Prudencio: VV M7 V.V +17 364
>Dave: ABDEHIR O5 BRA.HEID +66 375
>Marlon_Prudencio: S 12D ...S +20 384
>Dave: AELOOTT H13 OOT +11 386
#note I hit my bingo and made it about an even game again, but Marlon's PANS play is ominous. He would only do that if he is not only holding the other S for SPANS but also holding a very strong bingo leave. The remaining pool is of course nothing but good bingo tiles and the Q, so there is a possibility of us both bingoing again, but a Q draw could be a killer for either of us. Obviously with no U's unseen, he was not holding the Q when he played PANS, so it is one of the last five tiles. There is a case for me playing fewer tiles to try to minimize the chance of drawing it, but I also have to play in such a way as to optimize the chance to actually get a bingo on the board after a likely bingo from him, which requires both giving myself a good leave and the openings on the board I need. Furthermore, what is really important to understand about this position is that if the Q is in the bag when one of us bingos, then a bingo back by the other player will almost surely win, as the 20 point swing from eating it will probably be the difference maker. Furthermore, if he did just draw the Q and I leave more than one tile in the bag, then I am probably dead lost if he just plays QI, as I have no reasonable way to block the SPANS spot, and he might have other bingos down from the B, for example. For this reason, it seems to me that my best chance to win is to play three tiles and hope that either he just drew the Q or that I leave it as the last tile in the bag. Because in that case what is likely to happen is that he bingos, and I bingo back getting the 20 for the Q, or if he has to play off QI, I have a shot to bingo with an empty bag and stop him from bingoing at all. This is why I played OOT, both managing my leave well and creating a helpful bingo lane at 15H. I do not know if it gives me the best chance to win, but it was the best thing I could think of.
>Marlon_Prudencio: AEILNRS 15H .RENAILS +77 461
>Dave: ?AELQRT B10 QuART. +68 454
#note It is worth pointing out here that my strategy worked exactly as I expected. I did lose because I drew the Q, but if Marlon had drawn the Q at the end, he would have lost.
>Marlon_Prudencio: I 10B .I +11 472
>Marlon_Prudencio: (EL) +4 476
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