| Player 1 |
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#player1 Ian Ian
#player2 W W
>Ian: IIIII -IIIII +0 0
>W: CGILRRT 8G GRR +8 8
>Ian: EGW I7 G.EW +11 11
>W: BCILSTX J6 XI +28 36
#note Not thrilled with this, but I can't exchange with this available, I don't think (and with no good S hooks on the board to save a leave like CIST or ILST for anyway).
>Ian: AEENNRS J9 RENNASE +70 81
>W: BBCLRST 15H BL.B +24 60
>Ian: DMOU K10 DOUM +31 112
>W: CIPRSTW K4 CRIP +31 91
#note This or WRIT? Both plays share the attribute of giving up good E- plays to the triple from 8K. CRIP sets up an S hook for me; WRIT sheds the W. WRIT yields decent plays to Ian from L1, whereas CRIP does not. Sim prefers WRIT by a couple points, which I can understand.
>Ian: EEILT 8K ELITE +27 139
>W: AESTVWZ M7 W.Z +29 120
>Ian: EFHI 4K .HIEF +34 173
>W: AEJSTTV L12 TAJ +31 151
>Ian: DHO M13 HOD +41 214
>W: DEERSTV N10 VERSTE +67 218
#note Better than REVESTED, but with the huge number of As unseen, just VERST is safer to avoid very large plays like AY from O14 and to keep the nice DE combo.
>Ian: AINQ H11 NIQA. +17 231
>W: AADLLNN O14 AN +29 247
#note Realized my mistake here almost immediately after playing - AL is far better, as the ADLNN leave works much better with the G of GRR than ADLLN.
>Ian: ?ACIOST G3 COTIn.AS +64 295
>W: ADLLNRT O1 DRA.T +27 274
#note Almost did ALLOD.
>Ian: OPU F5 UPO +24 319
>W: ALLNOTY E7 TONALLY +72 346
>Ian: EEEEOO -EEEEOO +0 319
>W: AAEFIMN 2J FAINE. +34 380
#note This is the play where my Nationals went downhill. FAINER sims best without inference on any setting I try, but what is reasonable to infer that might change the result? Ian exchanged 6. With this pool it's basically a given that he threw back vowels and possibly a bad bingo consonant like the G, K, V, or Y. Therefore, we can hone in much more precisely on what he is likely to have. For example, we might assign very heavy weights to his range for tiles like DEEIS?, medium weight to GIKO, and lowest weight to EOOUUVY, the tiles he would be likeliest to exchange. Obviously, the problem with FAINER is that it sets up a potential situation where Ian can fish elsewhere on the board to create a second line, leaving me unable to block both. The funny thing about FAINER is that it actually does pretty well against certain very likely racks of Ian's, such as DEGIOS?, which can't bingo after FAINER and can bingo after plays that do not block the R. But maybe simply letting him bingo now with something like DIGESTOR is actually a good thing? It would guarantee that he couldn't bingo out with the awful tiles he would redraw and would give me a triple to play to. There are other racks like DEIKOS? that bingo in a damaging way with SKIDOOED or DISYOKED at 1H, but FAINER gives up DISYOKE as well. If I try to block the D and the R of DRAFT against a lot of those racks, Ian can still bingo through the C of COTINGAS a lot as well, and if I sacrifice too many points to block, those bingos will leave me down a fair number of points. Other options here include D8 MINAE, D12 AMIE leaving AFN expecting all those vowels to come out, and then two plays that I thought hard about in-game, M1 MAFIA and even N1 AA, keeping all my consonants. The only way FAINER doesn't sim better than all of these plays is when I sim an extremely precise rack of seven tiles for Ian. Please help me figure out what to do on this play.
>Ian: DEGIUVY D8 GUY +21 340
#note I believe this was Ian's rack
>W: AEEIMOU 3C UMIA. +18 398
#note UMIAC can beat certain racks like EIKOSV? by blocking the C column (INVOKES C3) leaving Ian with nothing on row 1. Another interesting idea is just fishing the E with WE, going for MIAOUED in two spots to bingo out, but again, the odds are not great of D? being available to draw here.
>Ian: ?DEIOSV 1E VISOrED +88 428
#note Horrendous loss!
>Ian: (EEKOO) +18 446
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