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#player1 Morris_Greenberg Morris Greenberg
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Morris_Greenberg: ?EEHHIO 8G HOE +12 12
>Jim_Burlant: DEEOSTV J2 DEVOTES +74 74
#note JB: Pro tip: look at the whole board. This word scores 5 more at J8.
>Morris_Greenberg: ?AEHIRY 6F HEAR.IlY +71 83
#note MG: Opted to take 2-4 fewer points to give less back to Jim than the rows 7 or 9 bingos. Quackle only prefers HYdRIAE.
>Jim_Burlant: CEEFNNW 3I F.NCE +28 102
#note JB: Not thrilled about keeping the W, but I don't have good options otherwise. This is best.
>Morris_Greenberg: AGIOOPR 5E GOOP +25 108
>Jim_Burlant: DENNNWW 9F WEND +24 126
#note JB: With no salvageable leave available, I figured I should just dump as much of the rack as I could. Q says I should play K5 WIN for 24. I can see that - sorta - but that only looks good if we know for sure WEND will be available on the next turn - not a given. <>
>Morris_Greenberg: AEEEIIR L3 .EI.I +12 120
#note MG: This seems best, as AERIE or EERIE spots at N1 or 10B give back a ton.
>Jim_Burlant: AJNNORW M2 J.NN. +19 145
#note JB: I was getting tired of looking at those N's, which is not a good basis for choosing a play. I saw NOW 10E and didn't like it because of its defensive liabilities, and everything else either keeps duplicated N's or keeps the J. This keeps OR and unloads the dupes while potentially setting me up to score with OR/FENCER words on the next turn. I don't have any great options; best looks to be 10E NOW and N1 WARN.
>Morris_Greenberg: AAEELRR 2M .AR +20 140
#note MG: I disliked playing this at the time given how easy of a spot it was to hit, but I figured given that Jim was likely holding all consonants the previous turn, it was more likely than normal that he could not use the spot (~20 percent of the time if we assume all consonants). Without inference, Quackle likes this best. However, maybe it just makes more sense to fork the board now with ARE D10 given Jim's range. I might do that if I could play this game again.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABORUW O1 B.OW +39 184
#note JB: How long do you spend on a rack like this before giving up and not looking for bingoes? All I saw in this rack was OUTBRAWL (turns out that's all there is), and after a minute or so I gave up and took a sure 39. This is best.
>Morris_Greenberg: AEEILRV 10B VEILER +32 172
#note MG: I spent awhile on this turn, and somehow missed LEAVIER/VEALIER 10A. That is a huge mistake.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AIRRUU -RUU +0 184
#note There's an 8 in this rack I would never have found (PIRARUCU), and it doesn't play. BROW won 82%; through no fault of my own, my winning chances are 68.6. It's debatable whether to exchange; with only 1 R unseen, Quackle thinks LUAU E10 and C7 AUREI are best, but this is almost as good. Equity difference between the top 5 options is negligible, and they all win within 0.6% of each other. That said, LUAU or AUREI look a lot better in retrospect:
>Morris_Greenberg: AADEIKZ D8 ZA.KAI +58 230
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAGIRT B7 GRA.ITAs +72 256
#note JB: This and its anagram, STRAVAIG, are my only playable bingoes. This sims best, but it may be worthwhile to pass up the bingo and take out the Z with GRIZ or RITZ. I might have given that more consideration if doing so didn't stick me with yet another duplicated set of letters; constantly having to leave myself duplicates was beginning to wear on me this tournament.
>Morris_Greenberg: CDEEGII 8A G.I. +42 272
#note JB: Of course. <>
>Jim_Burlant: ABLRRSU A13 BUR +20 276
#note JB: Best. Also worth consideration is 11F BLUR. Still a deuce game, right at 50%.
>Morris_Greenberg: CDEEIOU E10 .IED +27 299
>Jim_Burlant: ALRSSSX 4D LAS +15 291
#note JB: His play of LIED blocked my intended play of SAX 14D, and this is where this game went into mind-bending territory. I have all the remaining S's. While I don't mind telegraphing that I have one more S, I do not want to telegraph that I have ALL the remaining S's; I want him to think there's still another S out there. Additionally, if I draw ET, (or, optimistically, UQ), I'll have a huge play to 8O at that time. Thus, SALS 8L is a no-go. Why not SAL at 11G? If I put the A at H11, he could have AQUAE for 72...no thanks. This was simply trying to turn 3 tiles, not open anything too dangerous, and score a handful of points while hopefully drawing into an 8L play for 35 - 40 points. Maybe ZAIKAIS for 20 instead?
>Morris_Greenberg: CELLOTU 11G LOCULE +23 322
#note MG: I spent awhile on this turn. Quackle likes this second most after TO(I)L(E), which gives back fewer points for Jim's next turn (28 for TOILE vs. 36 for LOCULE), but more bingos with a random rack (5% for TOILE vs. 3% for LOCULE). Given LAS, I put Jim on something like ARST as a leave, and Quackle agrees that this is decidedly better with ARST leave. I was really surprised to hear that Jim kept the X on LAS, really cool.
>Jim_Burlant: APQRSSX 12J PAX +48 339
#note JB: I didn't think of QUASS, but I don't like it because it sacrifices CEILIS plays to O8. There's still no reason to telegraph my third S just yet, so it's PAX instead of SAX. This is best.
>Morris_Greenberg: EIMNTTU K11 ..T +3 325
#note MG: I have to give myself a shot to win. There's a chance I draw into the 2C spot with MUNTINED or MISTUNE(D) if he blocks the lane I created, and if I draw the Q, then there's a chance he gives me a monster Q play with a block. Quackle agrees this is best.
>Jim_Burlant: NQRSSTT -NQRT +0 339
#note Uh oh. He's obviously sitting on EI and/or a U, and I don't have the rack to do anything about it. QI 11A looks like a loser, and I need help from the tile bag - fast. Maybe, if he bingoes, I can q-stick him and set up a sequence with my S's that will win the game? All I know is the only thing to do here is cross my fingers that he can't hit. As for why I chose this: Gotta keep both S's, and the T goes with the S. The rest of this pointless to keep. Quackle indicates I should go deeper on the exchange. I'll accept that I should throw in the T, but I disagree with Quackle's assertion that one of my S's is useless. I need to keep both of those. If I had this to do again, I'd exchange 5 and keep both the S's.
>Morris_Greenberg: EIMMNTU H11 .M +7 332
#note MG: I made this play for a similar reason as the previous turn, but in addition, Q sticks could start being a possibility, and drawing as few tiles as possible to avoid Q draws seemed important. Quackle much prefers MENTUM 14J (58% win prob for MENTUM, 39% for OM for both random and STR racks for Jim). I would love to hear others' opinions on this position.
>Jim_Burlant: DFOSSTU 13I DO. +11 350
#note JB: Morris still has a wide-open run at row 14, and the unseen pool is full of RETINA 7's, not to mention all sorts of row 14 Q bombs now that I've thrown the Q back into the bag. I *have* to defend row 14. And, just in case I draw the Q, keeping the U isn't a bad idea.
>Morris_Greenberg: EIMNTTU E3 T.. +4 336
#note MG: This is hilariously stupid. I saw that if Jim had a U and Q, Q sticks were impossible (SUQ plays in multiple spots, QUA does too), but if U was in the bag, then QAT 3C was his only real chance. Therefore, I was set to play M(AG), but then thought T(AG) still allowed me to draw into MISTUNE so I played that (but failed to realize it no longer blocked QAT). In reality, I have 2 options here: 1) Fish for bingos, in which case, T(I) 11A is best, or 2) try outrunning, in which case, NUT 14J is correct.
>Jim_Burlant: FOQSSTU 8L SUQ +21 371
#note After double-checking that he didn't have any playable bingoes (the pool does threaten multiple RETINA 7's, but they don't play), I felt the best tack was to make him figure out how to deal with my impending Q bomb. This doesn't even show up in the kibbitzer options, but it's my best play.
>Morris_Greenberg: EIMNNTU 9M NIM +20 356
#note MG: QUINT was the play I was looking for, to give MEN/QUINTE for an out. This is 23 worse.
>Jim_Burlant: AFORSTY O8 S.ART +63 434
#note Saw SMARTY and, with my challenge grid having been redder than blood this morning, I suddenly had a smidgen of doubt about whether it was good. Entering this game I had lost 6 of my previous 7 and needed the win, first and foremost. Obviously SMARTY if I'm 100% sure it's good, otherwise this.
>Morris_Greenberg: ENTU 2F TUNE. +13 369
>Morris_Greenberg: (FOY) +18 387
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