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#player1 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Chris_Cree: BCITU 8D CUBIT +24 24
>Jim_Burlant: AAEGSTU I2 GATEAUS +70 70
#note It's this word either at 7G for 69, or here for 70. Both plays have their board position issues, so when in doubt, take the points. This is best.
>Chris_Cree: ?AEILNY 4C vENALI.Y +72 96
#note This play sums up the kind of day I was having. If he makes his best play of bELAYING/dELAYING/rELAYING on row 2 (those plays score 88 to this choice's 72), this is a different game. Instead, watch how it turns the game:
>Jim_Burlant: CEIINNO D7 I.ONIC +20 90
#note If he'd played for 88, I'd be bingoing with NICOTINE on row 4. Now, CONIINE doesn't play, and I have a bunch of mediocre options available. This is best.
>Chris_Cree: ADQ H1 QAD. +48 144
>Jim_Burlant: EFMNORV 11C F.VE +20 110
#note More mediocrity. I considered 3 plays: FAVE 6H, FIVER, and FIVE on row 11. Inexplicably I never saw FAVOR, and I didn't like giving the S hook back to H15 with FIVER, so FIVE it was. The duck thinks I shouldn't worry as much about leave and I should play VENOM 10B. In reality, a sim indicates that VENOM, FAVOR, and FIVE are all very good choices and the differences between them are statistically insignificant atop a sim. Given his next rack, no matter what I put down here, he was going to bingo.
>Chris_Cree: ?DEHORW 10F WORtHED +92 236
#note Ouch! Incorrectly scored as 91.
>Jim_Burlant: EMNNOOR 11K MON +21 131
#note I put this down to balance the rack and open the N column. Best is apparently 5D MONO for 3 more, but this is just equity at this point. MONO 5D apparenly wins 3.8%; this is runner up at 3.3% at an equity deficit of 5 points.
>Chris_Cree: BOO G2 BO.O +18 254
>Jim_Burlant: ELNOPRT H10 .EPLOT +33 164
#note I felt that, because I couldn't hold onto my O to back hook MON, I better open up the southern hemisphere for 8's. As for a sim: anything is as good as anything. This sims 9th or 10th down, but it wins within 0.3% and sims within 2-1/2 points of the sim winner. Other options are PLEON/PELON 12H, 12G REPLOT/PETROL.
>Chris_Cree: FKU E2 FU.K +22 276
>Jim_Burlant: ADGNRRS 12L RANG +24 188
#note I won't have a chance to win the game if the board shuts down. I saw this, I saw 24 points, a wide-open O column, and a chance to unload some of my duplicated letters, and that was that. A sim gives marginal preference to GAR 12L; I'm fine with this. GAR wins the sim at 3.6%; this is runner up, 0.1% less often but with the highest equity. I'd make this play again.
>Chris_Cree: AEEIIST O11 A.ITI +18 294
#note Chris's actual rack. This is why you have to pay full attention to everything at all times. I was half paying attention and thought I saw the new 5, ATIGI. It was only after he had drawn tiles that I looked more closely and realized I'd been had. The proper thing for me to do is swat this off. Falling asleep at the switch here may have cost me whatever miniscule chance I had at winning this game.
>Jim_Burlant: DGJMRRS 6H R.J +26 214
#note If I had challenged of AGITI*, I wouldn't be able to do anything there and, with post-mortem knowledge of his rack, I know he would probably come back with GITE O12 and I'm still shut down. Anyway, it was tempting to exchange here. However - I can still score 26, and this opens up the K column for 30-point plays if I can land an A. This is best, but it's bleak. 1.5% to win. A sim confirms that even if I had challenged off AGITI*, I'd barely be winning 5%.
>Chris_Cree: EHP 13K PEH +33 327
>Jim_Burlant: ADGMORS K5 MAG +23 237
#note One of the hardest things to do in Scrabble is make an opening, draw the tiles you need for what you just opened up, and recognize that your best play requires you to play somewhere else and burn the hook tile(s) you just tried to land. I failed to do that here since I was fixated on my RAJA back hooks, so my only debate was between this and GAM in the same spot. Best would have been OGAM 9J for 4 more.
>Chris_Cree: EEW 8K EWE +17 344
>Jim_Burlant: DNORSTV M3 STROV. +26 263
#note In theory, fishing with VIN 7C ro VINO G7 is reasonable, but I need two bingoes or a bingo and huge X/Z plays as well. Best case, he's going to either take out the M/N columns or block the southern hemisphere on his next turn, and a fish to DORST means I probably have one turn in which to hit a playable bingo. I had pretty much given up by now and put this down to score 26. It takes a looooonnng time for a sim to sort itself out, but it does like this. And this wound up being the best play I could have made by far.
>Chris_Cree: Y 6M .Y +13 357
#note Chris was looking to block the cheap EX N5.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEINR 15F DE.AINER +60 323
#note Or RETAINED. Back up to 8% to win.
>Chris_Cree: IL 14J LI +13 370
>Jim_Burlant: DEORSXZ N8 SEZ +39 362
#note Quackle's analysis of this end game must be taken with a grain of salt. It somehow thinks I have an 80+% chance of a win with EWERS and thinks REZ is better than SEZ in the same location, with S unseen. In reality I don't see how I have any win here. This seems like it has to be best.
>Chris_Cree: AEINSTU 14B UNTIE +19 389
#note Play incorrectly scored as 17.
>Jim_Burlant: DLORX C6 OX +34 396
>Chris_Cree: AS J1 AS +13 402
>Chris_Cree: (DLR) +8 410
#note Obviously, the last straw was falling asleep at the switch and not reacting quickly enough to challenge AGITI* off the board. Does that guarantee the win if I challenge that? Hardly. Would it have been a very different game? Absolutely. One for the "we'll never know" category.
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