Game Details
Player 1
#player1 David_Koenig David Koenig
#player2 Kate_Fukawa-Connelly Kate Fukawa-Connelly
>David_Koenig: EEEJRST 8D JETES +40 40
#note Quackle sim prefers 8G JEE, but the top 5 plays, including mine, are all within a point of each other.
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: CEELMOT H1 TELECOM. +89 89
>David_Koenig: AEHRRXY 9E RAX +39 79
#note This was definitely a mistake. I considered 5F ARCHERY which sets up the X at 6F and sims a bit better than my play, but I missed 5D EXARCHY which is clearly better than everything else. Note that RAX is a good play. The EHRY has good synergy with the open T and C. I have bingo chances and am likely to make scoring plays when I don't bingo. I'm also setting up a nice scoring Y spot at 10F. But it does lose some of that equity by giving the opponent good scoring possibilities on row 10 as well. The other plays are just a bit better.
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: AFK E5 FAK.. +24 113
>David_Koenig: AEGHRVY 3C GRAVE.Y +38 117
#note If you find a good move look for a better one. I had this set up and ready to play, and when she didn't block it, I took my turn quickly. But her play set up GARVEY in two spots, both of which score a few more points than my play.
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: AD F6 DA.. +22 135
>David_Koenig: AEHSTWZ 5H .HEZ +36 153
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: BILO D2 B.OIL +23 158
>David_Koenig: AAEGSTW 1E WAT.AGES +63 216
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: ELRV J4 L.VER +16 174
>David_Koenig: EIIIPRU K8 EURIPI +18 234
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: CU 10J C.U +11 185
>David_Koenig: ADEGIOS I9 GEOID +17 251
#note A key moment. I definitely want to play long and make it harder for her to bingo, as I'm protecting a lead and both blanks are unseen. The better spot for GEOID is M9, which is an ideal play to score and make the board difficult. However, I could not remember whether CRUE was good. My spot for GEOID makes the M10 hook only usable by S's, when there is only one unseen to me and I am holding one myself. Also, it is a strong inference that she is not holding the Q, because she just played off two tiles including a U for a low score. She probably is not holding other heavy tiles either. So this is an ideal time to turn over tiles and set up the H12-15 spot myself. Furthermore, with my AS leave, if I do draw the Q, there is a good chance I may get QATS or QADI for a massive score. However, I underscored this play as 15, which could have made a difference in some of the close endgames that come later.
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: INPRSTU M4 TURNIPS +70 255
#note Kate did not know the CSW only UNSTRIP that would have scored seven more.
>David_Koenig: ADEIQSU H12 QADI +96 347
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: EFIINOT 14A NOTIFIE. +78 333
>David_Koenig: ADEMSUY A8 DAYSME. +58 405
#note YEAD at 15A scores more, but with both blanks still unseen turnover is at a premium. Once she gave me an extra 10 points on the challenge, it made my play an even stronger choice.
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: BLNNOOT 2L OBO +12 345
#note This was Kate's actual rack, as she told me after the game. Her coffeehousing also unwisely tipped me off that both blanks were probably still in the bag when she made this play, though it ended up not affecting my strategy here.
>David_Koenig: INOORUW L12 INRO +20 425
#note A very interesting pre-endgame. Despite the dangerous lane that Kate just opened up in the O column, she actually has a much higher probability of bingoing with 15H INHALANT, so I decided that was the one to block.

There are 9 choose 2 = 36 possible sets of 2 tiles that can be left in the bag. (Counting duplicate tiles separately.) She always has INHALANT if at least one N is in the bag. This happens 21/36 times or 58.333% of the time.

On the other hand, though she has 15 bingos that can hook an E, L, or, S on column O, she must have both blanks and she only bingos if one of the following sets of tiles is in the bag: HL, HN, HT, LN, NN, NT. That only happens 14/36 times, or 38.888% of the time.

Therefore, it would seem that I made the right choice to block the bottom line, but if Quackle is to be believed, that is wrong. INRO wins 61% of the time, but just dropping the W at 13G wins 75% of the time. This is because most of her bingos, including INHALANT, do not score enough to beat me after I get one more scoring play on the following turn. Also, I might have needed to catch my two point scoring error from earlier to win some of those endgames.
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: ??LNNNT 8J ..N.N +6 351
#note Kate drew ??N. That third N was her undoing.
>David_Koenig: AHOUW B6 WHOA +23 448
#note I laid this down, then switched the tiles to WOAH in the same spot and said, "they added this spelling, didn't they?" Then "I'm just going to play the one I'm sure of."
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: ??LNT O8 sLaNT +27 378
>Kate_Fukawa-Connelly: (U) +2 380
Player 2
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