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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
>Jim_Burlant: AAEJLTU 8G TAJ +20 20
#note Interesting. It never occurred to me to play JEU and keep AALT, but apparently that's what I should do here; even if the A's are duplicated, AALT has better balance than AELU and I don't have to deal with the U. (-1.8)
>Chris_Cree: ABCI H6 AB.CI +9 9
>Jim_Burlant: ADELOUY 9H .OY +19 39
#note The play screaming to be made from this rack is COYAU 9H. I rejected it because, with all the N's and M's unseen, I didn't want to give away easy points to O8. Or give away points down the L column with a 5 through the U. I didn't look much beyond COY; besides limiting his options if he didn't have an S, a personal style tendency I have is that, if I have to keep a U that can cause lots of potential asynergy problems, I might play somewhat suboptimally in Quackle's eyes and hold more of the rack together to reduce the variance. Thus, I didn't even recognize a potential play like DECOY 9F. The duck disagrees with my assessment, saying I should man up and play COYAU. Failing that, it likes DECOY 9F. Maybe DECOY instead of this - maybe - but no way do I play COYAU. YMMV.
>Chris_Cree: EKLORRS -EKLO +0 9
>Jim_Burlant: ADELUVW 6G V.W +9 48
#note I draw VW on a two-tile pick from a full bag? So much for reducing variance. :-/ Anyway - not sure why I didn't like I4 VAW, which looks right. This isn't awful and it's in the upper tier of plays, but that's only a reflecton of how limited my options are.
>Chris_Cree: FIRST K5 FRITS +25 34
>Jim_Burlant: ADEKLTU L2 DUKE +23 71
#note Couldn't think of TALUK, which scores 30 at 8K. Failing that, I also whiffed on making an A front hook to FRITS, which eliminated other plays like 4K AUK. TALUK is clearly best here.
>Chris_Cree: RTY M5 TRY +16 50
>Jim_Burlant: AAEHLRT M1 AAH +25 96
#note Had I found TALUK, depending on his response to DUKE, I may have been bingoing with LATHERED from the L in TALUK. Instead, I now have a no-go. AAH is the wrong execution of the right idea: LAH (which I didn't see) in the same place keeps a more robust AERT but otherwise controls the board just like AAH does.
>Chris_Cree: COS 2J CO..S +28 78
>Jim_Burlant: EIILMRT 1M .IM +17 113
#note And if I play LAH on the previous turn like I should have, I have AEIIMRT and I'm playing AIRTIME N7. Instead, I have to play this for 17. At least I got this right.
>Chris_Cree: NT 10G N.T +13 91
>Jim_Burlant: EILRTWZ J9 .EW +17 130
#note Chris's last two plays suggested he was close to something and I wanted to limit his options. With this, he has to have an S if he wants to bingo on row 12, and if he doesn't have an S, his only bingo options are at 11A or down the N column, which will both set up counterplay for my Z. Q gives marginal preference to 7J WILY as a pure rack groomer but the difference between that play and this is stylistic preference. 65.7% to win.
>Chris_Cree: AEIORST 11J .O +10 101
#note Actual rack. This is Chris's best play. He's still at 45% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: DILORTZ L10 ZORI +32 162
#note To me this came down to a question of how much risk did I want to take? ZORIL giving back row-15 S hooks with Chris obviously threatening? Or row 14 hooks giving me row 15 counterplay in return? I opted for the latter for that reason and - thinking optimistically - because I might be able to hook ZORI with my L on the next turn if I guessed wrong and he didn't have an L, S, or ?. Against an inferred AERS, Quackle agrees with me, saying this wins 65% of the time.
>Chris_Cree: AEINRST 12D RETAINS +76 177
#note Even though 14I plays like RETSINA, ANTSIER, and ANESTRI score 82 to this play's 76, they threaten to give way too much back on row 15 for me, which is why Chris is correct to play here. This is his best bingo and in Quackle's eyes, the game is a crapshoot with Chris back to 49.5% winning chances.
>Jim_Burlant: ADIILNT 14K ILIA +22 184
#note I debated between ILIA and ILIAD and thought I was being SO clever by keeping the D for an almost exclusive hook while I expected him to take out row 15. Quackle says that my idea was marginally less mediocre than playing ILIAD. Best is apparently 14J INLAID for 32. INLAID wins 49.2%; ILIAD wins 44.5% and sims 7-1/2 points down on INLAID, and ILIA wins .7% less often than ILIAD and sims 0.7 points down on ILIAD. All that said, this did work.
>Chris_Cree: EOP 11D OPE +22 199
>Jim_Burlant: DDEINST O8 DISTEND +86 270
#note I initially put this down at 15E to take away the easy row 15 plays. But the problem with that placement is that, QX are unseen and I would slot the I at 15F - too dangerous. Hence, this. Q agrees - this is correct. 83% or thereabouts to win in a short sim.
>Chris_Cree: AEILNX 15F ALEXIN +41 240
#note Given this rack fragment, this is Chris's best play but it's still bleak for him: he's 16% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: EFHLORR 14F FER +31 301
#note I initially put down ROLFER 14C, and had second thoughts about it when I saw that the pool threatened comebacks like DEEM/VEEP/etc. at 15A. So I shortened this to FER, figuring that I only scored 3 fewer points but didn't give easy points back at 15A, and was smugly confident I'd made a terrific play. While FER isn't bad, I missed a much better play because I didn't look hard enough: HERO 14F scores 41 and, more importantly, turns the extra tile with the blank unseen. While I'm still in good shape at 81% to win, the lack of turnover here may have cost me the game.
>Chris_Cree: ?BDEGOU C5 BOUGhED +68 308
#note Only bingo for Chris, but I'm still slightly favored; he's 42% to win. I'm surprised Quackle doesn't place the odds of his winning a bit lower given that the blank is unseen.
>Jim_Burlant: EHLLOOR D1 HOLLER +32 333
#note I debated between this and HELLO in the same location (couldn't think of HOLLO). HOLLER won out due to points (32 for HOLLErR, 28 for HELLO) and turnover with the blank unseen. Q agrees - this is by far my best available play (HELLO wins 6-1/2% less often), but whatever I put down here wouldn't have mattered.
>Chris_Cree: AAEGP E4 AGAPE +33 341
>Jim_Burlant: EGMNOQU 13A MUNG +18 351
#note I don't have a win despite possessing QU in this nicely balanced rack. Why MUNG? I spent way too much time looking for the 20+ point Q play that wasn't there. As a result I burned my time down to a handful of seconds, at which point I slapped this down to get something in before my time expired. Best looks to be something like MUG F2 or GNOME 2B to block his out plays, which will allow me to unload the Q and save some spread.
>Chris_Cree: ?ENUV 2A UNr.VE +20 361
>Chris_Cree: (EOQ) +24 385
#note Even though I played suboptimally early on, the DISTEND bingo still put me in control, or so it seemed. But even if the ILIA/DISTEND sequence appeared to work, analysis leaves the uneasy feeling that I shortchanged myself by 3 or 4 tiles turned in the late game. IMO, that's what did me in more than the 10 points I missed by playing FER instead of HERO. It was clear from how the end game played out that my inability to land an A and/or the blank left me with no chance to win. While there's no guarantee I would have drawn the right tiles, I didn't take as many cracks at the bag as I needed to, so this loss was on me.
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