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#player1 Fern_Lindzon Fern Lindzon
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Fern_Lindzon: AGIKN 8D KIANG +30 30
>Jackson: ACDDMQT E5 QAD. +28 28
>Fern_Lindzon: BDI F4 DIB +33 63
>Jackson: CDDHMOT F8 .DD +9 37
#note what a strange turn! it hit me that ADD was probably the best static play, and indeed it is! only 0.9 above ODD. GOTCH I was very close to playing, but CHMOT can get a lot better for me - KETCH, OHMIT, KHOUM, etc. DDM isn't going anywhere. I definitely want a closed board against fern, and I think add doesn't open quite as much as gotch
>Fern_Lindzon: LNOY E10 ONLY +17 80
>Jackson: AACHMOT D12 AMAH +37 74
>Fern_Lindzon: EINSW 15C W.INES +36 116
>Jackson: CEFORTU 14G FOU +13 87
#note thought FUMY was invalid... ugh! it even compares! absolutely the star play. FUMEY* is no good. would anyone playg FU(G) here, cause she probably has another S? whines came down quickly.
with S specified, her bingo % is 29 with FOU and just over 28 with FUG, hardly a difference. My bingo percentage is almost 9% higher with FUG, so I should probably do that anyways. I liked that FOU isn't the easiest lane to deal with. KIANGS plays going down can be really really annoying, but I don't think that will happen.
>Fern_Lindzon: AEILNSV I2 VALINES +73 189
>Jackson: CEJLORT 3H C.JOLER +32 119
#note I played this turn really quickly and just wanted to get through it. CAJOLE is better! JO(K)ER is a cool find, but I can't afford to cripple the left side more than it already is.
>Fern_Lindzon: CEIV K2 V.ICE +20 209
>Jackson: BEEEIRT J10 BITER +24 143
#note considered NEE, and the plays at the top right (BEE, B(R)EE, etc.). hate everything here. E(K)E is also worth considering cause I need lanes. I should probably just do that to keep the pressure on. at least BITER adds a couple lanes, and gives an S hook that could be useful at some point. I don't think fern is gonna close the board too much (in general, but also cause of VOICE) so I'm not as worried as I would be usually. also turnover is good here for ?SY
>Fern_Lindzon: INX K11 NIX +35 244
>Jackson: ?AEEEOT 2K .ETO +22 165
#note seems weird to close the R here and restrict the CAJOLER hooks, but I think this is what I need to do. there aren't all too many plays on the 1 row she could have, so the scoring spot that veto opens isn't so bad (just GGM are worrisome... 30 point plays like TAME for 33 kinda suck but I can live with it). I don't think fern is going to sacrifice a whole lot to play along 4 to block the hooks, so I'm hoping they can stay open till I hit. other option is EKE again, but I think I need some scoring pressure so I can stay within a one-CAJOLERS-bingo range.
>Fern_Lindzon: OZ 14B ZO. +29 273
>Jackson: ?AEEGIU 1M AGE +19 184
#note makes it even harder to block the hook for any worthwhile score
>Fern_Lindzon: F 4K .F +22 295
>Jackson: ?AEITUY 14G ....EY +23 207
>Jackson: ?AEITUY -- -23 184
#note I think (D)UI is the play I didn't find here - I looked at the spot but GI slipped my mind. I saw a bunch of uninspiring plays, like KAY, YEZ... Y bingoes obviously aren't likely but I might need it. fishing an E going for AASS? is not the worst thing. her fishing and stuff indicates probably a blank, cause I think she might want to block cajolers if she has an S, but I wasn't gonna say anything for sure. I felt a blank was probable. but still, yautias/suavity is worth the shot. YUT(Z) I didn't see, but it creates another lane.
I think DUI is what I need to play here. fishing the E is a bit premature. FOUREY* might work better against someone who isn't as strong as Fern.
>Fern_Lindzon: EM G10 EM +8 303
>Jackson: ?AEITUY 9F .E +11 195
#note starting to get low on time after spending a long time on last play. this might be best, idk
>Fern_Lindzon: GW 11I W..G +8 311
#note exactly what I need right now!
>Jackson: ?AAITUY O3 YAUTIAs +100 295
#note don't you just love that feeling of thinking about the A as you draw, thinking about as you open your palm, and then seeing the A?
>Fern_Lindzon: AEHIOPR 9C HI +15 326
>Jackson: OPRSTTU 15J SPROUT +35 330
#note bingoshit gets weird, and I was sad I had only about 2.5 mins left on my clock. 9 in the bag, I leave 3 with SPROUT. given her range, this is looking really bad. I think I'm better off trying to go out with a bingo, cause even when I leave three in the bag, if she doesn't bingo this turn, she'll bingo the following turn. and even if she doesn't bingo, I get outrun a lot.
I think for SPROUT to work, either Fern needs to bingo next turn and I draw an out-bingo, or Fern fishes again next turn, I bingo with WINGS, and she doesn't draw a bingo. I think it's really rare that she fishes, I bingo, and she outbingoes and I WIN, cause M?WING makes easy 15 point fishes, and her fishes will always win by a small margin (if she outbingoes). I think I could win if neither of us bingoes, but the odds of that aren't great I don't think. and she definitely has the blank. She is in fishing mode right now, so outrunning is a bit more viable.
Champ thinks STUPOR/SPROUT win just a hair under 50%, but even if we round it down given her monster range, I am not seeing it. Quackle also finds the cool OPT/PHI - I still have to bingo next turn to win, but if she doesn't bingo next turn, I think I'm winning this game.
Right now I'm liking the looks of OPT - basically just bank on the "she doesn't bingo and I bingo" option - cause SPROUT sort of relies on that as well, but T is obviously way worst than RSTU to bingo.
>Fern_Lindzon: ?EELOPR M5 ELOPERs +68 394
>Jackson: NORRSTT - +0 330
>Fern_Lindzon: AEU B8 EAU +11 405
>Fern_Lindzon: (NORRSTT) +14 419
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