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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Michael Michael
>Joshua_Sokol: BDFINOT H7 FOB +16 16
#note pretty sure I have had this exact rack before
>Michael: EEV I6 VEE +15 15
>Joshua_Sokol: DEIJNTT 9F JI. +13 29
#note this was tough. This makes sense against a random range but I'm pretty sure Michael had an S (paranoia maybe?) so this is even better for that reason I would think.
>Michael: BE 7H ..EB +9 24
#note S?
>Joshua_Sokol: DEENTTT F9 .ETTED +20 49
#note Does he challenge (B)ETTED all that often? That seems like the only reason I would go for that over this. Positionally BETTED seemed intuitive but, like, he should really have an S and I'm just protecting his best lane with BETTED. True that this increases his chances but the difference seems so small when you infer an S. So that made me want to consider DE(B)T K5. But after that I have no good options unless I bingo. And I feel like he's more prone to scoring well at 8K after I give him a T, but it's tough to put my finger on what he's keeping with his S. Perhaps I really needed to play DE(B)T. The 2x2 through the T is scary after JETTED if I infer an S, but I really don't want to play scared.
>Michael: AEIMNSS 9F ...S +22 46
#note It's a really good thing that Michael hasn't studied more words, especially 8s and new bingo. 5000 is right under the range of MAN(T)ISES and MA(T)INESS. SIDESMEN, NEMESIAS+, and the two 7s that are also out of his range. Michael wondered how much worse this was than a bingo, and it's around a 20-30 point difference. Lucky swing for me, but honestly I should have just played DE(B)T, because with a fly's sneeze, the timeline might have been altered just enough for him to see MANTISES.
>Joshua_Sokol: DNNNOTU 13A UNNOT.D +20 69
#note I'm in big trouble now, hoping for a very promising draw of maybe the Q or a blank. Obviously not playing TUNN(E)D for obvious reasons. (he has another S and that's just a huge lane for no good reason. UNTON(E)D is better because I can play through another floater next turn instead of two N's.
>Michael: AEIMNSW L2 MANWISE +86 132
>Joshua_Sokol: ?DINORR 3G ORDIN.Ry +72 141
#note I realized that if I instead drew into my own bingo elsewhere after UNNOT(E)D and he played his, which is a good case scenario for me, I am just handing Michael a nice triple spot with UNNOTED. So a better idea would have been to predict the bad case scenario of the good case scenario and forgo my bingo here to block the U...
>Michael: AELQ A11 EQ.AL +72 204
>Joshua_Sokol: ADIKRUZ 12A .UID +38 179
#note Had a bad feeling I would really need my Z next turn, which is why I forwent D12 Z(O)UK. Maybe if I just had one set gameplan the tiles would come into place for me to win this game. ZOUK is clearly the right play. 44 with a good leave.
>Michael: OX 2I OX +53 257
>Joshua_Sokol: AEHIKRZ 1D KAIZER +76 255
#note The classic KAIZER* phony. It was time to go to my always trusty backup plan against Michael Fagen, intentional phonies. HAZIER is 6 fewer with a worse one-tile leave. KAISER and KAIZEN will confuse just about anyone the first few times.
>Michael: AHP 8L .PHA +27 284
>Joshua_Sokol: HILNRUY 4C HURLY +27 282
#note He probably wasn't challenging RUN(T)ILY 11C and there was like a 5% chance it was good, so I would have played it if I thought it was better than this. IN is pretty good on this board, so I thought.
>Michael: AIRTT 2B TRAIT +26 310
#note See, this is why I doubt myself so much against Michael. He did not have an S here, but he did have one (even two perhaps) when he played (FE)EB. Does he just set up random hooks later in the game or is it just equity?
>Joshua_Sokol: AAAIINT K2 I.IA +33 315
#note And here I have a massive equity increase over 12F (T)ITANIA but if I feel like he might not have an S or blank, is it correct to sacrifice everything to go for one of the 3? Like, this was soooo much better that TITANIA... But results orientation tells me that TITANIA would have been more likely to win be the game.
>Michael: CEOP 5B COPE +29 339
#note I mean surely he had an S now?
He didn't!!!! He said this dealt with the S hook on TRAIT well enough and that it was very difficult to hit a bingo down A3!!!
>Joshua_Sokol: AAFGNTU 11C GUT.A +20 335
#note I mean I guess I just have to play N5 AFG(H)AN. Surely he will doubt the word, not hook an S to it, not know the I hook either, and hand me the game. Right? I have played better than perfectly so far according to Quackle if you calculate the equity difference between QUID/ZOUK vs. the equity difference between KAIZER/HAZIER (-5 vs +9). But no, I'm sure the confusion he experiences after AFGHAN (he might even challenge) completely overrides the equity difference between the two plays here.
>Michael: NOOW N6 NO.OW +21 360
>Joshua_Sokol: AEFGGNV O7 F.NEGA +23 358
#note I mean I'm just drawing dead now.I should just exchange keeping A. I can't win without a bingo or SS? anyway. EEILLS? is the pool I'm drawing into so keeping AN is probably a winner.
Finally a mistake I can blame myself for.
>Michael: ACMORSY M10 ORACY +26 386
#note VESICLE and VESTIGE at A3 are what Michael loses to after 13J CYMARS. But if he draws the V and a consonant after ORACY, he loses in the endgame. N12 YOM is another thing he considered, which is just as strong as CYMARS.
>Joshua_Sokol: ?EGILLV 14J VIn.L +36 394
#note Really disappointing loss. Even if he misses SCOPE or MESSY I can't win this endgame, so just go with this.
>Michael: EMSS A3 MESS +16 402
>Michael: (ELG) +8 410
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