| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
#player2 Nigel_Richards Nigel Richards
>Dave_Koenig: ADEMRTU 8D MATURED +76 76
>Nigel_Richards: ?AAEHIN E5 AcH.ENIA +90 90
>Nigel_Richards: AELY (challenge) +5 95
#note Of course, I knew ACHENIA#, and I've surely studied this spelling too, because it's a five vowel eight. However, it looked just unfamiliar enough that I decided to challenge, even though I knew that Nigel was not apt to play phonies. I'm sure Nigel was grateful for the extra five points, but from my point of view it was a psychological victory of telling myself that I'm not going to treat him differently than any other opponent.
>Dave_Koenig: ACIOQRV J6 QA.I +34 110
>Nigel_Richards: AELY D8 .EALY +36 131
>Dave_Koenig: COORTUV H7 V.OU +7 117
#note I took a while on this play and was frustrated that there seemed to be almost no useful way to score that didn't rip open the board significantly and increase his scoring chances. I saw VROU# quickly, but it took a while to convince me there was no better option. It was reassuring to see that Quackle likes the play too. It is static analyser's favorite choice. In a two ply sim CROUT# D1 and OCTUOR# K9 simmed slightly ahead of it, but not enough that VROU# could be called a mistake. (They were all within a point or point and a half.) Interestingly, COURT D1 does a little bit worse than CROUT#, probably because with the OV leave it's more useful to give yourself an R to play through than another O. VROU# doesn't score much, but it sheds the worst tiles from the rack and might leave the opponent without too much to do, while there's a good chance that he will open the board more for me on the next turn.
>Nigel_Richards: EIN K5 NIE +19 150
#note Nigel's NIE# play creates perhaps the most interesting decision point of the game. It's easy to infer that he is probably very close to a bingo after shedding three one pointers. And it's a reasonable guess that he might also be holding an O for the ONIE# hook on row 4. Though the board is not super open, there are enough lanes that it seems likely that with a good rack he will be able to get one down: i.e., through the A on row 5, hooking ONIE#, K9-15, or starting with S hooking VROUS#. My unfortunate KTT draw limits my options here, but I've still got a few. Think about which way you would play before going any further.
>Dave_Koenig: CKORTTT 4I TROCK +26 143
#note TROCK is clearly the word that is called to be played here, but there are three reasonable choices of where to play it: D1, 4I, or F11. In other circumstances, it might be worth taking the extra 4 points to play it at D1, but given the inference of a strong rack from Nigel, and the relatively low scoring bingo lanes that are available, that seems completely inappropriate right now. However, it's a tough call between the 4I and F11 placements, which both score the exact same thing. It may seem strange to make a board opener like TROCK F11 when you know the opponent has a strong rack, but the reason for it is that the K is an unlikely letter to bingo through. It is more likely that he will bingo elsewhere, and then I will be able to make plays through the K to the triple in response, helping me from falling too far behind. (Important especially because with a TT leave, I don't have great chances to draw into a bingo right away.) At the same time, there is a counterargument that TROCK 4I is a perfectly safe play. It takes away the O hook that Nigel might have been setting up for himself, and what if he had failed to hit his three tile bingo draw? Opening up the K on row 15 might just be helping him out. There's also the thought that he might be holding the other blank, and if his rack is that strong, he might be able to bingo through the K or even triple-triple. It takes nerves of steel to play TROCK F11 against Nigel, and I opted not to do it. I still really don't know which placement is better, and a Quackle simulation is close to useless here because the situation is so heavily dependent on inferences from his rack. However, regardless of what the optimal thing to do percentage-wise is, with the particular rack Nigel actually had, the F11 placement would have worked better.
>Nigel_Richards: DEGINRS 3C DINGERS +75 225
>Dave_Koenig: ?AFJPTT 2B JAP +31 174
#note Not a whole lot to think about for a few turns here.
>Nigel_Richards: CGO 4B COG +28 253
>Dave_Koenig: ?FORTTZ B4 .OZ +34 208
#note I forgot about SCOG#, which becomes relevant later, but I fortuitously blocked the lane simply because I didn't have any other good plays.
>Nigel_Richards: DENR F10 DERN +26 279
>Dave_Koenig: ?FFRTTT G2 F.TT +7 215
#note Quackle simulation agrees with me, favoring FETT# by about a point over TEFF in the same spot. There's a good chance to make an F-starting bingo at K9 on the next turn. Holding the F with tiles that have good synergy with it not only makes bingos score higher here, it also is more likely to make bingos that actually fit on this board. TEFF will also bingo frequently, but when it doesn't, you're more likely to get stuck in a situation where you can't score.
>Nigel_Richards: AEELN M2 AL.ENE +22 301
>Dave_Koenig: ?AFORST N5 FORcATS +74 289
#note My best play of the game, and it was handsomely rewarded. 14A FARMOST scores the farmost, but it gives too much back to him. I'm still going to be chasing after the bingo, so I want to play in such a way as to continue to optimize my bingo chances. Placing the blank C at N8 forks the board, stopping him from making a closing play parallel to FORCATS, unless he is lucky enough to have something with the H. Also the 2J-N and O1-5 lanes are likely to be his most profitable places to play, so there's a good chance I'll get a shot or two at the O9-15 and M9-15 bingo lanes.
>Nigel_Richards: IX N2 XI +38 339
>Dave_Koenig: DEILOOS O9 DOOLIES +84 373
#note And with a lucky draw suddenly I'm back in the game!
>Nigel_Richards: EEPW O1 WEEP +49 388
#note But Nigel isn't going to cry about it.
>Dave_Koenig: BEHITUV 14L VIB. +18 391
#note Not sure what to do here. It made sense to me to get rid of my most awkward consonants while taking out the bingo lanes on rows 14 and 15 as well as column K, and the placement of the V stops him from hitting row 15. THIEVE or BEVUE on row 14 would have scored better but given row 15 back to him. However, with a consonant heavy bag and no E's remaining, maybe those lanes aren't so dangerous, especially the one after THIEVE. VIBE seems to bring the game in a direction where whoever gets the final S will be at an advantage. If I had remembered SCOG#, I might have been able to infer that Nigel had the S and had been sitting on it for a while. This might have encouraged me to do something more enterprising than VIBE.
>Nigel_Richards: IO C6 OI +14 402
#note A beautiful setup by Nigel. Clearly he is holding the last A for AZO to make column A plays, and there's not much I can do here.
>Dave_Koenig: EHLMTUW 5A T. +2 393
#note Of course, I have a nice scoring play that I made on the next turn, but I was almost sure that I was going to get annihilated on row A with something like AIRGUNS#, SABRING, BAYING or even SAYING. I could play WHEE 9B to cut down on plays to that lane, but I cannot imagine a scenario where that would possibly win for me. I take most of the scoring potential out of my rack, and I go into a 7 vs. 7 endgame with him going first. Indeed, Nigel pointed out after the game that he would still have YANG A5. Instead I tried to temporize and cut down on the plays he could make on the A column, while leaving one tile in the bag and holding my scoring play for next turn. Unfortunately, my play doesn't actually block because of SCOG#. However, it seems to me that I am losing no matter what I play.
>Nigel_Richards: AGINSY A4 S.AYING +56 458
>Dave_Koenig: BEHLMUW 11H WHELM +37 430
>Nigel_Richards: RU 12L UR +12 470
#note A nice game from Nigel. Great awareness on the AZO setup, as we've come to expect from him. But I was happy that I hung right with him until the end.
>Nigel_Richards: (BU) +8 478
|
