| Player 1 |
|
#player1 CBB CBB
#player2 Noah Noah
>CBB: CCEMNTY 8G MYC +20 20
>Noah: AAIPRTW I8 .AW +9 9
>CBB: BCENTUY 9E BUY +23 43
>Noah: AILOPRT H1 POLARIT. +92 101
>CBB: CDENSTU 2G C.NTUSED +76 119
>Noah: AEEEOSV 5E OVE.SEA +40 141
>CBB: AEEFIKO 6J FAKE +34 153
>Noah: ADEEINO 1L ODEA +27 168
>CBB: EHIORRS 11F HORSIER +79 232
>Noah: EIIMNOT 12C INTIME +30 198
>CBB: AEFPTVZ 12K FEZ +39 271
#note Conrad: Without sounding arrogant, I'd like to take a moment to illustrate a much-underused concept with this play. This position is one of those situations where it's worth doing a probability calculation on how likely Noah is to have an A. If he doesn't have one, then this play is quite safe, and allows me to score much better next turn, while playing off all of my clunky tiles over the two turns (FVZ). To verify that the probability is in my favor, it's worth noting the difference in average score next turn for Noah after FEZ versus another candidate play, versus my average score after the same two plays. If FEZ doesn't seem that intuitive, and the sim results surprise you, try calculating the probability yourself, and the sim results may surprise you.
>Noah: DEHORTU N5 DROUTH +34 232
>CBB: AGIPRTV 13L VAGI +44 315
#note Conrad: and the risk pays dividends.
>Noah: ?EENNNR O12 N.NE +15 247
>CBB: BDGIPRT 8L GR.B +27 342
>Noah: ?AENNRS 15H ANSERiN. +74 321
>CBB: ADIJPQT C10 QA.D +28 370
#note Conrad: Although I now sacrifice 10 points, I block both bingo lanes, and keep the J for future scoring. I should be able to win all nonbingo endgames here, so it's worth blocking.
>Noah: AEGOUWX 3L EX +43 364
#note Conrad: Noah took a very long time to play this "seemingly obvious" play. I took this information to mean that Noah likely did not hold the blank, and was playing most of the power on his rack at this point.
>CBB: EIIJLPT 14F PILEI +23 393
#note Playing five tiles maximizes my chances at the blank, and minimizes his chances at being able to set anything up.
>Noah: AGILOUW 4A AGLOW +25 389
#note Noah: Tried hard to find a way to win even though I thought there probably wasn't one, and ended up doing this which I knew to be bad because of this.
>CBB: ?IJLOOT 6B JOLT +33 426
#note Conrad: Couldn't come up with J(A)ILOr for three more.
>Noah: ITU 15D TUI +8 397
>Noah: (IO?) +4 401
|
