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#player1 Josh_Sokol Josh Sokol
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Josh_Sokol: DFINOYZ -DFINOY +0 0
#note Context: this is game 1 of the tournament.
>Jim_Burlant: ALMNOOS 8D MOOLA +20 20
#note No 7's in this SOLO MAN rack, and I didn't think it was worth 8 scoreboard points to keep more of the rack together with LOOM or MOOL given the vowel placement issues any of those plays presented. Q agrees - this is best. MONO, which I didn't consider, is second best but wins 3% less often and sims over 6 points down.
>Josh_Sokol: RUY G6 RU.Y +12 12
>Jim_Burlant: EEINOSX 9B OXEN +25 45
#note So-so choice. OXEYE doesn't hit any useful premiums but still scores 32 to this play's 25 and doesn't open everything up the way this one does.
>Josh_Sokol: ACIRU F2 CURIA +19 31
>Jim_Burlant: EINSTTZ 5C ZIT. +26 71
#note If the last play was so-so, this was even worse. 4D NERTZ scores 48. If I want to play short, preserve more of the rack, and not give any H1 counterplay back, 5E ZIT scores 32 and keeps EINST together. This is total board vision failure.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ADIRSV B7 AV.DIReS +80 111
>Jim_Burlant: BEEHNST 4D HE.B +30 101
#note Right idea, wrong execution. This is a strong choice (a rarity for me this game to this point) but it's not quite best. The slightly better play would have been BERTH in the same location for 8 more points, as it doesn't threaten huge plays at H1 if he's got the Y. I'm still in the game despite myself, as the sim thinks I'm just shy of 45% to win.
>Josh_Sokol: HNOOR A11 HONOR +38 149
>Jim_Burlant: EMNOSTW C11 MEW +37 138
#note This was not an easy turn. I took a long time debating between this and H1 MOWS. I recognized the need to defend against H1 plays ending in Y, and weighed whether it was worth it to burn the S to do so. Ultimately, I felt that it was still early enough that I could score now and risk waiting one more turn to take that spot out since the bag is still roughly 2/3 full and only 1 Y is at large. I figured that, if, on my next turn, I had an inert rake like ENORSTT without an 8 available, I could burn the S on the next turn to play at H1. The sim agrees with me - this is best, and it makes clear that MOWS is decidedly a weaker play. This wins just shy of 42%; MOWS wins 38 and sims almost 5 points down.
>Josh_Sokol: DLUY H1 DULY +53 202
#note Damn, he's got the Y.
>Jim_Burlant: AGNOQST 7A Q.T +13 151
#note Another turn I puzzled over. Dump the Q? Exchange GOQ? Exchange OQ? Even though the duck thinks this is my best play, given my deficit and what this does to the board I wonder if I should have exchanged OQ or GOQ here to keep the threat of an A1 bingo alive. I'm guessing that, because I still have the S to back hook MOOLA and that the northeast provides some good for 8's (but for how long?), Q thinks I don't need to exchange and that this play is correct. Regardless of what really is right here, one thing is certain: between my whiffing on my second and third (and maybe fourth) turns and the subsequent turn of luck this game is on the verge of getting away from me. I'm now winning 19%.
>Josh_Sokol: ACEI H8 .ECIA +13 215
>Jim_Burlant: AGINOSU -OU +0 151
#note Feeling taunted by the tile gods: I dink off the Q for chump change and on a two-tile draw, I land the *only U in the bag*. The star choices are 1G UDO (I think it hurts me more than helping me given that it kills row 1 ,which I want to stay alive if I want to get back into the game), 3H LANUGO (never saw it) and this. Despite giving up equity, this play wins more than everything except UDO. I'm fine with this.
>Josh_Sokol: OTW 10D TOW +22 237
>Jim_Burlant: ABGINNS 3A BANG +21 172
#note This is my highest scoring option. That said, if the duck is to be believed (it doesn't like this at all, and yes, I know JIBE is a potential comeback), I should just fish off an N. I believe this is one of those positions where the duck is to be taken with a grain of salt, and here's why. E is the most probable tile in the pool, so fishing off an N and keeping row 1 alive means an E gives me DEBASING. However, I don't know how many E's are in his rack, and the sim bases its evaluation on what happens over however many hundred or thousand times it gets to draw one tile from all the unseen tiles. Of course, on that basis, a one-tile fish is going to yield an E more often than anything else. But I only get one crack at the bag, not 1000. If, best case, all the unseen E's are at large, I have roughly a 2-in-9 chance of getting one given this pool...which means that roughly 7 of 9 times, I'll come up empty. And that's the best case. My take is that a fruitless fishing expedition on this turn all but guarantees this game will get away from me, so I'm better off taking the points and turnover to try and stay in the game. And, yeah, cross my fingers that he doesn't have the J. YMMV.
>Josh_Sokol: AET I1 ETA +12 249
>Jim_Burlant: EIINNPS J3 PINNIES +66 238
#note Bailed! And I was about to catch a huge break. Back in the game.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ADEKOV - +0 249
#note Lost challenge.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEFKPT 11G P.KED +24 262
#note On his previous turn he played off ETA, and he subsequently challenged PINNIES. I figured he was probably 80 - 90% sure PINNIES was good and he only desperation challenged because PINNIES had blocked a 7 he was going to put down, and he didn't have an 8. Thus, my first priority was blocking row 11 and adding resistance to row 12 (something like AILERONS is still possible on row 12, but that's one of only a handful of bingoes that will play on row 12). This is the only one of my top five available options that defends. If he's played off 4 or 5 tiles and I can't infer anything about his rack, KAF B2 looks like the right play both to balance the rack and block plays at A1. But, given this situation, I'd make this play again.
>Josh_Sokol: EI 13A ...IE +7 256
>Jim_Burlant: AFGLRTV 13H LAV +15 277
#note And he dumps off yet more surplus bingo prone tiles. From where I was sitting, rack management on my end had to wait and the priority was making sure he couldn't bingo. Again, Quackle wants me to dump off the garbage for cheap at B2 (VAT, TAV, etc.). My take: this play puts me up just enough that I may still be able to overcome a 42-point JIBE, but I won't be able to overcome a bingo, even if it's only 65 points. Q doesn't like this at all (predictably) but I caught another huge break:
>Josh_Sokol: EEGILOO - +0 256
#note Lost challenge.
>Jim_Burlant: DFGIJRT B2 J.G +22 299
#note Spent minutes debating whether to play for 36 with JIB or 22 points with JAG. The 14 points were tempting, but I felt that if he was sitting on a vowel overload, I wouldn't want to leave myself without vowels. On this board a I felt a lead of 43 was as good as 57, so after a couple of minutes I opted to sacrifice points for balance and the increased probability of being able to play through. In retrospect I certainly wish I'd just taken the points.
>Josh_Sokol: AEI K10 I.EA +12 268
>Jim_Burlant: DFIORTU K4 FOU +23 322
#note Okay, now I have to add resistance to the line he just created for an easy 7. Not thrilled about giving him something like RAFT as a comeback, but I can survive 33 points; I can't give up 68. This maximizes my score and makes it much tougher for him to bingo. It's best.
>Josh_Sokol: L K10 ....L +6 274
>Jim_Burlant: DEEIORT I13 .E +2 324
#note I don't care about equity at this point; I can let him have something in the 30-35-point range at 15K, but I cannot let him bingo on row 15. This doesn't even hit Quackle's radar but Quackle's suggestions for this position are just stupid (it likes a bunch of C1 plays for 12 points that don't defend). I'd make this play again. One more comment: time was becoming a real problem by now, as I'd spent a lot of time on way too many of these turns. I was way down on time and had to recheck the tracking, which only compounded my problems.
>Josh_Sokol: G 5J ..G +4 278
>Jim_Burlant: DEINORT L7 TROD +9 333
#note I initially put down DIRT, thought about it, then realized I needed the slightly more defensive TROD. When this went down I was 53 seconds over on time.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AFRSST 15K STAfF +31 309
>Jim_Burlant: EEIN 8L .EIN +12 345
#note Amazing how you become a total idiot when you're in danger of going another minute over on time. Wrote his score down and slapped this down on autopilot. 14 M NEE or 14K LINE would have been enough to overcome the goofs that followed. Time on my clock when this went down: -1:00.
>Josh_Sokol: RS D12 S.R +14 323
>Josh_Sokol: (E) +2 325
#note At the time, we tallied things up and as I saw the end game play out, I agreed with Josh when we deducted 20 points from my score because I had come up with the same calculation as I saw him put his play of SIR down. Frankly, I was so relieved to have escaped with the tie given how the early game had gone that I didn't even ask to recount. A few minutes after the paperwork was submitted (the game was recorded as a 325 - 325 tie and a recount wouldn't have changed that since we otherwise scored it correctly), while I was waiting for my next game, it dawned on me: my 1:00 time penalty should have been 10 points, not 20, and I should have had a 10-point win. With the rule change in recent years, a submitted result was now final and could not be changed. When I talked to Josh about this, he realized the error too, was very apologetic and it was obvious we had both made an honest mistake. And a shout-out to Josh here: I found out later that, on his own, Josh went to the officials to try to get the result changed to my win, but to no avail. Josh, if you're reading this, thank you for trying; I really appreciated that. But, if I play the game just one second faster (well within my control to do so) none of this comes to pass. I had my chance and blew it.
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