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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Lawren_Freebody Lawren Freebody
>Joshua_Sokol: EIOOOSZ H7 OOZE +26 26
#note By far my most interesting first move of Nationals. We began the game and Lawren asked to stop the clock to get a longer rack for herself. I obliged, and realized upon her return that she had drawn 8 tiles.
The tiles I turn over are DEY.
Since I had been trying to decide what to play between OOZE and ZOO and where to play each word. Trying to decide what to give Lawren back prompted me to play OOZE H& and get rid of her D, which is one less hook to worry about.
Even with a partial inference the sim would prefer to play at 5H for immediate defense. But it's very close between that and each of the other positions for OOZE. ZOO is a bit less of a favorite, as I imagined, since even though EIOS around as likely to bingo as IOS, a partial inference of a Y makes defending from bingos, by omitting to float an E, almost a nonissue. Also, IOS is more flexible than EIOS so that's already a factor.
I'm open to suggestions as to why other placements of OOZE seem stronger, because this move has a lot of potential for discussion!
>Lawren_Freebody: ?EFINSY I2 dENSIFY +81 81
#note Amazingly enough, no matter which tile I gave her back, she would have had DENSIFY as a 7! She whiffed on OOZED or OOZES which is significantly better, 25 points even, which was very lucky for me.
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AIJNOS 11B AdJOINS +90 116
#note And I whiffed on 2H A(d)JOINtS for 108! H1 JIAO also looks better than my play. Maybe 11G AdJOINS is also a better idea too... This is a medium error.
>Lawren_Freebody: CDEG B10 C.DGE +30 111
>Joshua_Sokol: ACIIIOV 5F OVI.AC +22 138
#note Here I missed two similar plays. CIAO H1 and (J)IAO D11. I actually played this to draw a challenge, but it failed. I didn't see anything else cause I wanted to play this word since I saw Adam Ginzberg play it the month prior.
>Lawren_Freebody: ADIQS L1 QADIS +62 173
#note She just said "nice play" and then played this. Aarrghh what a failure on my part.
>Joshua_Sokol: EHIIOTW 6C WITH +31 169
#note I could also play 12D OI here, but it seemed like a better idea to save that for later and try to draw some good stuff for this board, such as a U or DRS. to hook onto CADGE. A lot of plays sim close to one another here. I'm not sure if my play was right. There were other decent options such as 10E WHE(E) for 38.
>Lawren_Freebody: AELU 1K E.UAL +42 215
>Joshua_Sokol: EEEIORS 12D OE +24 193
#note Seems like the best play on all fronts. Scores, retains a very good leave and doesn't give anything back.
>Lawren_Freebody: KU 10F KU. +35 250
>Joshua_Sokol: EEILPRS 15B REPILES +96 289
#note So here is the moment where I should have lost the game. I lay down REPLIES and then change it last second to REPILES* for defense. Already confusing words I've recently studied (REPILES/SPIELER vs UNPILES) is a very bad sign. Good thing she didn't challenge. She almost challenged cause CADGER didn't seem familiar.
>Lawren_Freebody: DIPR 4C DRIP +22 272
>Joshua_Sokol: AAEHNNY 2L .NY +24 313
#note I don't remember my exact reasoning on this play but I remember that it was very defensive, as I sillily thought that plays at K2 would sting. And I also wanted to take out columns N and O when I still could. I felt that after this, the board would naturally close, which is what I wanted. I thought my lead was a bit better than it actually was, obviously. I should have opted for the standard H1 HAY I think, even though this does accomplish some good things.
>Lawren_Freebody: GINTTU K5 .UTTING +20 292
#note I was happy to see this come down.
>Joshua_Sokol: AAAEHNW H1 HAW +33 346
#note This turn had its share of considerations. (T)HANE jumps up to mind as the best scoring play, but I didn't want to needlessly give her bingo lanes, and good ones at that. H1 HAW seems very reasonable. It scores, blocks a prime threat, the D in DENSIFY, and takes out a big scoring spot. 3C AAH is a bit less conventional, but it scores decently and gets rid of even more bingo threats than HAW does, albeit marginally. HAW turned out to be my choice, and I can't really see why not to play it over the other options.
>Lawren_Freebody: AGO 13A A.OG +23 315
>Joshua_Sokol: AAELNRT J9 LEARNT +19 365
#note This turn I went for pure defense/ending the game quicker with a lead, reducing Lawren's bingo chances to a mere 3%, scoring as best as I could, and keeping an unproblematic A for next turn. There is merit in going for my own bingo here with something like G2 LA, but the total risk isn't worth the total reward. There was no reason to try and go for spread here since I had a tie, and my bingoing chances will never surpass 30-35% anyway, even with a gret AENRT leave, since the board isn't too bingo-friendly. So I think that my play is correct all things considered. My lead should be good enough to outrun many things including the 3% of the time she bingoes, perhaps.
>Lawren_Freebody: BEEMR L11 EMBER +24 339
>Joshua_Sokol: ABNOUVX 15K B.AVO +30 395
#note This turn, the two moves that seemed decent were B(R)AVO and (R)OUX in the bottom right corner. I felt like NUX was far more likely to score well than BANV was, that both plays basically limited her bingo% to AEROLIT(H) at 1A (I missed FORTIET(H) playing in the same spot), and that leaving 2 in the bag is better than leaving one in the bag. B(R)AVO gives back MODERAT(O) and AMORETT(O) though, which I didn't think of, so that gives her two more possibilities. It's impossible for her to make a 1-tile fish next turn that hits both bingo spots as far as I know. But after ROUX, she can only hit AEROLIT(H) and FORTIET(H), and DRAFTEE, FILAREE and MELODIA overlapping EMBER. So, the game isn't won yet. But it seems possible for her to win without a bingo if I play (R)OUX given my leave (sticking may occur or just outscoring), so that might give a slight edge to B(R)AVO. I'm not sure which is better between the two. (T)AXON shouldn't be considered because Lawren can make a fish after (T)AXON that will hit in two places some of the time, and the BUV leave is atrocious. Anyways, a very interesting turn, far more interesting than I first suspected.
>Lawren_Freebody: EMT M12 MET. +28 367
>Joshua_Sokol: INORRUX 7K .UX +18 413
#note I completely missed TOXIN as a 5. Playing (T)OXIN at 8K is the best play here. If we both play a perfect endgame, this is 15 points behind TOXIN and many points behind a ton of other plays. I just blanked here, I had no idea what to do, which should never happen in a solvable part of this game.
>Lawren_Freebody: ADEFLT 6M AFT +23 390
#note -10 to a complicated LA(V) 13N
>Joshua_Sokol: INORR O4 IN.RO +18 431
>Lawren_Freebody: DEL 14E LED +15 405
>Lawren_Freebody: (R) +2 407
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