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#player1 Emanuel Emanuel
#player2 Josh Josh
>Emanuel: ADIIO 8H OIDIA +14 14
#note Tied at 4-4, game 9. I warn you, this series is going to be a roller coaster ride
>Josh: ADELOTZ J4 DOZE. +36 36
#note This turn, I had a few things to choose from. I saw DOZED played either upwards or downwards, and decided that it was better to expose an O than an E, since many more bingos play through the E, and even non-bingo 2x2s are much more likely, therefore J4 seemed better than J8. The risk of an overlap on column K seemed relatively equal either way. I also considered the merits of K7 D(I)AZO, which doesn't pluralize. With that choice I'm really not giving Emanuel much to work with at all. The only thing was that it scored 6 less points than DOZE(D), and I didn't think it was worth the sacrifice since DOZE(D) isn't that much worse defensively. I also considered just ZE(D), which leaves me with ADLOT. But I knew that ADLOT was a deceiving leave. It isn't actually that good at all. So I knew that if Emanuel was able to cook something up and score next turn, I wouldn't be left with many options. Still, ZE(D) leaves Emanuel less to work with than DOZE(D), which is a pretty good thing. So all of these plays look very decent. Emanuel's range is all over the place after OIDIA, therefore I should go with the best play in most situations here, which I think is DOZE(D). Maybe my thinking isn't defensive enough.
>Emanuel: ??HLSTW 5E WHiTL.wS +98 112
#note Fantastic find by Emanuel.
>Josh: AALMQTV L2 QAT. +26 62
>Emanuel: ILO M1 OIL +21 133
>Josh: AIJLMPV L8 .JIVA +30 92
>Emanuel: BIIN H1 BINI. +24 157
>Josh: DGLMPSU N2 SLUMP +57 149
#note Would you look at that, I'm actually back in this game.
>Emanuel: IPSY O5 YIPS +38 195
>Josh: ABDEEGN 7I B. +14 163
#note I had a hard time deciding what to do this turn. I knew that this drew into a lot of things, but I knew that it wasn't that likely either. Apparently I bingo 35% next turn. Another option that I didn't see was 6D BEAD, and effectively that looks like a better play. but there are so many E's left so maybe BEE in the same spot is also good. First I was considering I7 B(I)DE but that seemed crazy. A lot of plays simulate close to each other.
>Emanuel: CRUY 11I CUR.Y +26 221
>Josh: ADEEGMN 9B ENDGAME +67 230
#note Well, I hit it. I had to decide if ADEEM(I)NG for one more was better than ENDGAME, and for some intuitive reason I chose to take less points because I thought this reduced his score/bingo% a bit. It is true that if Emanuel has a 7 it will most likely no longer play after ENDGAME, but instead ENDGAME grants Emanuel more letters to play through, whereas ADEEM(I)NG subtracts three and adds one. Therefore I'm increasing his bingo % with ENDGAME, something I don't want to do unless I think he's not very strong. CUR(V)Y implies a possibility of weak tiles but doesn't come close to confirming a thing, and in that case ADEEM(I)NG would be the better play. I overthought this situation and regretted it after hitting the clock.
>Emanuel: EEF 10B FEE +32 253
>Josh: AAEINOU G9 .IAOU +8 238
#note I quickly played this before assessing that I had quite a few other options. 4D EAU scores 16, 3B AEONIA(N) as well. 1E OUA(B)AIN retains just an E (which I actually don't want but it's better than multiple vowels. The U could quite possibly be better than the E to keep here, in fact, due to the importance of the XI/XU spot at F10. Maybe not that important, but surely the difference in score of OUABAIN vs AEONIAN makes AEONIAN a superior play on leave alone. After only one play though, I am back to a flipping a quarter with only around 25% winning chances, despite having equalized the score just last turn. This was clearly a mistake though, and I may not deserve the large piece of pie that is my winning chances after this play.
>Emanuel: X 10F X. +50 303
#note I tempted fate. Fate took notice.
>Josh: AENNSTT 14B TANNEST +76 314
#note ... or did it? My winning chances are still poor here, even after probably one of the best draws I could expect. I preferred TANNEST over TENANTS because more than one scoring spot opened by TANNEST seemed like a better idea than just one at A11-A15. My backup bingo, if ever this was blocked, was STANN(I)TE at 2C.
>Emanuel: EEILNRV - +0 303
#note To my surprise, Emanuel held and challenged.
>Josh: AEGGNOT 15A TOGAE +31 345
#note This turn, I considered TOGA, GAGE and TOGAE after rejecting AGONE 15H as too risky. I saw that there were many E's to come and that therefore sacrificing 5 points for a similar leave in this scenario wasn't worth it. However, there are many more consonants than vowels in the pool, which is a good reason to consider GAGE at 15A too. I saw that overlaps were much more probably after GAGE though, so it didn't seem right to play based on that. It is an important factor because the score is close still.
>Emanuel: EEILNRV 11E LE. +16 319
#note Well, Emanuel said he had challenged because the game was unwinnable if he let it go, but ENLIVE(NE)R begs to differ.
>Josh: ACEEGNT 2B AGENET.C +76 421
#note Game over if he finds the 9 instead of focusing on the scenario. This wouldn't play.
>Emanuel: EINORV 15H OVINE +33 352
>Josh: DFHKRRW D1 K.RF +32 453
>Emanuel: EOORRRU 14K ERROR +14 366
#note Correct play
>Josh: ADHRW O12 WA.D +36 489
#note INCORRECT! 1A DHA(K)! Wow. I imagine that ERROR is therefore incorrect too, since playing ERROR assumes I will not make my own error this turn...
>Emanuel: OU 4D .OU +16 382
>Emanuel: (HR) +10 392
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