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#player1 Mike_Early Mike Early
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Mike_Early: EOT 8F TOE +6 6
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAAEPX 9F AX +36 36
#note Tossed up whether to play this or TAXA F8. I thought the latter might give back too many easy plays. And, sitting on the blank, I thought I had a little more leeway in terms of leave. Q agrees - I'm just shy of 64% to win.
>Mike_Early: EEINNST I2 TENNIES +63 69
#note This plays at E9 for 74 and 7A for 73.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAEEPP E9 PEA +22 58
#note No bingoes play. I saw PAPA H1 but didn't like the leave. I also didn't like the board, as I wanted to bingo sooner than later and thought things might close down too quickly if I played at H1. I expected Mike to take out H1 with something like HAW and I would hopefully have a juicy 70+ comeback of my own on row 12 on the next turn. But what is it that's said about the best laid plans? The sim indicates I'm a little too busy grooming the rack: PAPA H1 wins 54%; this wins roughly 51-2/3% and sims 5 points down as the runner up. Given how this game panned out, PAPA certainly looks a lot better in retrospect.
>Mike_Early: IJNRUY 12A INJURY +40 109
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEIPRV 4C REPAVI.g +76 134
#note I do not have any bingoes down the A column. The only bingoes worth consideration are the 4C, 5C, and B6 placements of REPAVING. While REPAVING B6 killed the 3x3 threat, I didn't like the board position. I saw this, felt 76 points was 76 points (this outscores 5C by 2 points) and that was enough. Q agrees. Interestngly enough, the sim runner up is C12 JIVE. 5C REPAVING and B6 REPAVING sim 1-1/2 and 4 points down on this at 1200 iterations. I'm 52% to win, but not for long.
>Mike_Early: CNYZ A11 Z.NCY +57 166
#note Ouch!!!!
>Jim_Burlant: ADGIOOV C9 GAD.O +32 166
#note I saw two plays here: VOE 7G and this. VOE also scores well but the ADGIO leave didn't thrill me. While IOV is no prize as leaves go, I still need to turn more than 2 tiles out of this dreck. Q agrees - this is best. But VOE sure looks better in hindsight as you'll see in a second. 33% to win and falling fast.
>Mike_Early: EF B10 FE. +40 206
#note Ouch!!!!
>Jim_Burlant: DIIOSSV 7G VO.S +30 196
#note This sims well because of score, but the play I needed to find but couldn't was C2 VIROID, which is surprising because I saw a no-go DIVISORS as an 8, and VIROIDS is the anagram of DIVISOR. If I had it to do again, VIROID would have been my choice because the duplicated I's really have to go here. VIROID wins 34%; this wins roughly 32.75% and sims not quite 3 points down.
>Mike_Early: BHIT C3 B.ITH +28 234
>Jim_Burlant: ADGIIIS 15A .AGI +9 205
#note None of my options scores well. The sim really likes E4 PIG and ID or AI at 5E. If I have to keep a crappy leave, I'd at least like to unload more than one of these vowels, and this is the only viable choice I have that allows me to do that whiile I dump the N-less G. Given how weak my options are, I might as well groom the rack to my liking, not that any of these choices are great. 22% to win.
>Mike_Early: AW 5E AW +23 257
>Jim_Burlant: DEIILNS 14D LINDIES +64 269
#note Only bingo, and back to 40% winning chances. But not for long.
>Mike_Early: CEEIORS 2G CO.ERIES +74 331
#note Best bingo for Mike (the other one is ESOTERIC 2F for 64). This is 76% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: DEGORTW 13I WODGE +39 308
#note With no A for WATERDOG, the goal is simple: Score. This is a very strong choice and it wins roughly 1% less often and sims 3 points down on the sim winner, which I didn't recall: GODWIT scores 39 and keeps ER instead of RT. With E's becoming an endangered species, this killed me as you'll see in a second. 14.65% to win.
>Mike_Early: KLO L1 K.LO +26 357
>Jim_Burlant: FIORRTT 15G OFT +42 350
#note Had I thought of GODWIT, I'd be putting down ROTIFER M4 and would be winning 52 or 53%. Instead, I've just watched RETROFIT get blocked, and this, which is my best play, barely wins 22%. I'm still alive, and I'm confident in my chances if I can force an end game, but I'm going to need some help from the tiles.
>Mike_Early: AHLU L10 LAU.H +18 375
>Jim_Burlant: ILMRRTU H1 T.R.I +19 369
#note Cute play and it's my highest scoring option. I was less concerned about building a bingo rack than I was about scoring as well as I could so as to hopefully force an end game. If the duck is to be believed, however, I should apparently try to build a rack and sacrifice points. Q's preference is M4 MURR. MURR ostensibly wins 26%; this wins 20.
>Mike_Early: Q 5B Q. +11 386
>Jim_Burlant: ELMNRTU 1L .NUR +28 397
#note My thought process: Anything that blocks his potential bingoes doesn't score enough to keep me in the game. This puts me up by 11 and, if he doesn't have a bingo I may have a good shot in the end game. The M column won't be the easiest thing to hit, and if he hits, he hits, that's life. Quackle agrees: this is best, and nothing else is even close. The end of this game kind of tells you the tournament I was having:
>Mike_Early: ?AABDMR M5 BARMAiD +67 453
#note Only bingo for Mike. Play incorrectly scored as 65. Desperation challenged since it was the out play.
>Mike_Early: (EELMOTU) +18 471
#note Mild imperfections on my end, yes, but nothing I would consider a major mistake. VOES instead of VIROID hurt and WODGE, which was a nit-picky slip, may have cost me the game. Kind of tells you that this was one of those weekends where I had no margin for being human. This one hurt to lose, as I've won many games where I didn't play anywhere near as well as I played here.
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