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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Wally_Schultz Wally Schultz
>Jim_Burlant: ?EINRRT 8G ReNTIER +64 64
#note Pick your poison. I went by the adage that I should have the blank duplicate something else I was putting down. Quackle says I should have made the blank a U, which makes sense, since RUNTIER doesn't take an S hook while RENTIER does. I caught a break in that, in this game, the S hook never came into play.
>Wally_Schultz: CHLM K7 M.LCH +24 24
>Jim_Burlant: AEIOVYY L11 IVY +23 87
#note Considered two plays: M5 IVORY and this. The strengths of IVORY are (a) that it clears out the extra vowel and (b) adds some resistance to that S hook that's available down the M column. That said, I felt I couldn't turn down the extra 7 scoreboard points. Quackle agrees - this is best, and IVORY wins 1/2% less often sims almost 2 points down.
>Wally_Schultz: FOS 13J FO.S +20 44
>Jim_Burlant: AELORTY 7H YO +13 100
#note With ORNATELY I6 just having been blocked, my only scoring options (OCTYL 10J scores 24) blow up the rack for nowhere near enough points. Truthfully, I never even saw anything other than Y dumps. Q indicates I should also keep the O and play 7K MY.
>Wally_Schultz: DEMR 6F DERM +21 65
>Jim_Burlant: ADELORT 5A DELATOR +71 171
#note Only bingo. 85% to win.
>Wally_Schultz: EIJNX 6A EX +53 118
#note He initially attempted to put down a J play down the B column when he realized he didn't have what he thought he had seen.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEEEOV A5 ..AVE +27 198
#note That hurts, and not just because he scored 53 points. While I had planned on extending the D into (D)EAVE all along, I now have to keep 4 vowels instead of 3. Apparently I should play OVA 4A for 27 if Q is to be believed. Really? Keep AEEE instead of AEEO? Neither is great...but seriously? Q thinks OVA wins 74.3% and that this wins 1% less often and is a 2-1/2 point dog. The duck notwithstanding, I'd make this play again. One option also worth consideration if you don't mind giving up some points for much better rack balance is M7 AREAE.
>Wally_Schultz: IJNQT D4 Q.T +24 142
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIOUW M6 OU.IE +7 205
#note Yet another sign of how this day was going: My best plays on the previous turn forced me to keep a terrible vowel overload, and I land IUW on my 3-tile pick?!? Anyway - I was about to exchange when I noticed this. I thought that, given how I'd been drawing counter overloads all day, turning 4 tiles would give me a good shot at an N2 play, so I did this as a setup. This is a strong choice but not best in the duck's eyes; best is apparently C5 LIEU for 16; I never noticed the spot. The sim says C5 LIEU wins a hair over 75%, this wins exactly 1% less often and sims roughly 2 points down.
>Wally_Schultz: ADEIJNR L4 JIN +22 164
>Jim_Burlant: AAELSTW N5 AW +27 232
#note That actually worked out too well. Like I said, I had been hoping for the collection of counters I'd typically been drawing all day so I could hit a 5 at N2 for 50ish. Instead, I have to "fish" for 27, though I'm in good shape. This is best, and it's 88% to win.
>Wally_Schultz: ABCFNSU O1 SCUBA +38 202
#note Actual rack. Either this or N10 FUB are Wally's best plays. He's 22% to win with this...but not for long.
>Jim_Burlant: AELPSTU 1H PULSATE. +83 315
#note This plays all over the place (including the beyond-sick PUL(MON)ATES I3 for 68), but this is clearly best. 97% to win in a short sim.
>Wally_Schultz: FGO N10 FOG +28 230
>Jim_Burlant: AADHIKN 3J KADI +30 345
#note Right idea, wrong execution. Forgot there was a 5, KHADI, which scores 48 to this play's 30. KHADI 3I definitely should have been the play.
>Wally_Schultz: EILNOST 10D TELSONI. +64 294
#note Wally's other bingo is G8 RETINOLS for 60. Regardless, his chances are slim - he's barely winning 9% with this, his best play.
>Jim_Burlant: AGHNNRW 2F HWAN +24 369
#note The play is this word either here or at 11B. While the 11B placement outscores this 26 to 24, I felt this was the better defensive position as I didn't want to give back a bunch of easy plays at 12A by playing at 11B. Admittedly, 1A Z plays are a possibility but I think that spot is harder to hit than 12A would be if I played on row 11. Q says this has the highest valuation but that the 11B placement wins 1% more often. YMMV. 89.5% to win.
>Wally_Schultz: EI C5 .IE +15 309
>Jim_Burlant: BEGNNOR H10 .RGONE +27 396
#note I struggled with this turn. Z? are still unseen, and I can't block all his bingo lines (the B column, plus rows 12 and 14). He's just fished off EI, and having played Wally before, I'm thinking he doesn't have the Z because he'd have dumped it for roughly 20 if he did. What this ultimately came down to was that, no matter what I put down I was opening things up for him, so I might as well turn 5 tiles, chase the unseen Z?, and take the 27 points (none of my other options scores more than 22). And this forces specificity on his end - my lead after ORGONE will be big enough that if he bingoes without the Z, it won't be enough for him. My feeling was that, if he's got a Z bingo, he's got a Z bingo, that's life. The sim and Championship Player are conflicted. Champ likes E9 BEGONE, saying it wins just shy of 89%; this is Champ's runner up at 88-1/4%. The sim likes D8 BETON and 11B EBON and 4F BONG. Pick your poison - nothing stands out and everything has its pitfalls.
>Wally_Schultz: AI E3 AI. +14 323
>Jim_Burlant: BGINRUZ E9 Z.BU +30 426
#note Now I can relax. With the Z in my rack, I can do arithmetic: if I play off my B and Z, this puts me up by 103 points. Even if he bingoes out and gets 12 points from my rack, he doesn't have anything that will score well enough to win the game. An interesting option I never saw that Quackle likes is BURNING 14C. While it kills all his bingoes, what do I do with the Z after he blocks my only available Z dump?
>Wally_Schultz: ?ADEOPT 15A DEPOnAT. +83 406
>Wally_Schultz: ?ADEOPT -- -83 323
>Jim_Burlant: EGINR G13 GIN +15 441
#note That's a break. I was just so relieved that the win was mine that I never bothered to look for my out play and auto-piloted this, knowing that I had gotten a few more points of spread. GINNER 14F and F10 LINGER are the plays. This is stupid.
>Wally_Schultz: ?ADEOPT O11 PODiA +32 355
>Jim_Burlant: ER 3G ER +14 455
>Jim_Burlant: (ET) +4 459
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