| Player 1 |
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#player1 Sid Sid
#player2 Mack Mack
>Sid: ABENNOR 8D BARONNE +74 74
#note Detailed commentary on both sides!
Sid: I saw the bingo in about thirty seconds, and spent the next three minutes deciding on the placement. Yes, many would argue that I shouldn't waste this much time, but given the score and my opponent, the placement is surely pivotal. Say that CARONNE* is a word and that was my rack, I would surely play it with the A on the star, to reduce my opponent's accessibility to the board. However, with the B, no placement of BARONNE achieves anything defensively long term, really, so ultimately I decide that I must take the points.
>Mack: EHHIOQT 9C QI +25 25
#note Mack: I also considered HEH at 7E (7E is superior to 9E in order to avoid blocking the QI spot), but decided that unloading the Q immediately was the priority incase the spot for it was taken. Quackle agrees in a short sim.
>Sid: AEINOUY 7G YOU +25 99
#note Mack: Blocking my HITHE(R)TO. Quick quiz: what front hooks does HITHERTO take? Answer on next position.
Sid: QUINOA is certainly not worth playing despite the higher equity because of my lead, so I decide that this is the only choice. However, I flat out missed the bottom placement for YOU, which is way superior to my play. After my YOU play, Mack still has good lanes to work with, such as BI- or -UN, while after this play he only has NU- (and the baronnes hook, which I couldn't stop either way). Just way fewer hook letters, way better defense, the bottom placement of YOU by far sims best.
>Mack: EHHIOTT 10A THIO +31 56
#note Mack: Answer to quiz: interestingly, THITHERTO is valid but WHITHERTO* is not. HIT in the same spot does not open a 3*3 lane, but the abundance of hooks is just as dangerous, so THIO is superior in order to maintain a superior leave. (Thank you to Conrad for pointing out the hooks quiz!)
>Sid: AEINTTY A8 NI.TY +36 135
#note Sid: While all candidate plays are 5 letters long and are in this exact spot, I figure that equity is the only factor, and try to go with the highest equity play here. However, I should have given defense SOME thought and put a T there instead of an N, which reduces the number of sevens Mack can play, although not that many because without an S, the -UN spot in still there at i6. That's why TATTY and TITTY are simming a bit above NITTY. Mack bingos around 1.4% more after my play. (Oh and plus, sevens played in the 2 column score way more than in the 6 row and furthermore give less playback).
>Mack: DEHLOOT 6I TOEHOLD +68 124
#note Mack: The only playable bingo.
>Sid: AEGIJRT O4 GA.JE +48 183
#note Sid: With 48 and an IRT leave, nothing else is even worth considering. I must play this, and it takes out the most dangerous scoring lane anyways.
>Mack: BDDDEUZ 5K BUD +28 152
#note Mack: I was waffling between this play and K2 BUDDED, but ultimately chose this due to the increased defense and since I will most likely be able to play N8 DAZED/DOZED next turn. Quackle also suggests DUD in the same spot, which I didn't consider, but BUD wins the sim by a small margin.
>Sid: EINRTVX M3 RE..X +42 225
#note Sid: Again, with no standout defensive plays, I must play this.
>Mack: ADDELOZ N8 DOZED +39 191
#note Mack: 4J LODE or 4K ODE are also options, but sacrifice too much on the scoreboard. DOZED wins the sim fairly decisively.
>Sid: IMNTVVW E5 VIV. +20 245
#note Sid: VIVE and VIVA are the only two candidate plays and have identical equities, so I figure defense must be my influencing factor. Thus, I should have played VIVE, as it posesses far superior long term board control. I played VIVA because I was paranoid about the STUN hook with four esses out and thought ultimately STUN is more dangerous than leaving Mack ED to work with, but in the long run, VIVE is much superior defensively.
>Mack: AACEILP O12 EPIC +31 222
#note Mack: I wasn't sure of PALACED, and with this available didn't want to take the chance. PALACED is definitely better than EPIC since it turns over more tiles for the blanks and avoids the duplicate As preserved after EPIC. I also considered M11 PICA to set up PICAL, but with ??SSSS unseen that is too risky. The other alternative I thought about was CAPI(Z), but I felt the seven points was worth the leave sacrifice. It is definitely a close call, and the sim has EPIC and CAPIZ back and forth immediately behind PALACED.
>Sid: ?GMNNTW 6C TW.N +9 254
#note Sid: Insta-played this. Best equity, best defense. Q confirms my confidence in this play; this handily wins the sim and keeps Mack's bingo % the lowest.
>Mack: AAEELRS B10 .AE +13 235
#note Mack: Though it scores equally and plays off the same two tiles, 5D AVE is inferior to this play since AVE allows high-scoring counterplays from 4A-4D.
>Sid: ?GIIMMN 13B sIMMING +80 334
>Sid: ?GIIMMN -- -80 254
#note Sid: I completely thought this was good! And how did I miss DIMMING?! Wow. what a turn of events. I also didn't know MAIMING, NIMMING, or IMMINGLE.
>Mack: ACELRSS 13B SCALERS +77 312
#note Mack: Unfortunately, there is no way to stop Sid from bingoing here. K8 SCLERAS/SCALERS alows HAEd/dIMMING and 11G IMMINGlE, and 11H RESCALES allows HAEd/dIMMING. 13B SCLERAS allows 14G bingos, and this allows 12F MaIMING.
>Sid: ?GIIMMN 14D MIM +29 283
#note Sid: I didn't know MAIMING, and I didn't know IMMINGLE. Mack made a smart play with SCALERS, because he probably thought I would see DIMMING (which I still didn't!?!) if he played at K8. Another huge error here.
>Mack: AILRSSW 15F SWAIL +29 341
#note Mack: This is best, it scores well and obstructs the easiest and highest scoring bingo lane, which is especially important since I know Sid has a blank from sIMMING*.
>Sid: ?GIILNU 15A IGLU +24 307
#note Sid: Awful. I saw GUILING and missed BIOG, and I didn't know FIGULINE or LINGUINE. While I'm quite proud of how I played my first seven turns, I just made three game-losing plays in a row.
>Mack: AARRSTU 12H AURAR +15 356
#note Mack: Knowing that Sid has the blank, closing as many bingo lanes as possible is at a large premium. At this point a seven starting with an S hooking BARONNE or a seven ending in an S hooking SWAIL, or an eight ending in the E of DOZED seemed easiest to hit. Though there are no esses in the pool, I know Sid has at least one blank so I still have to worry about the S hook lanes. Quackle also suggests 12G AURA, which avoids opening the R, but does still alow sevens down column K which hook AURA. I think I'd prefer to open the R with AURAR since it is still very hard to hit as the bingo has to have the R in exactly the fifth spot, and should Sid bingo there it will score very little and I may be able to outrun him. Potential sevens after AURA, however, will score much more and be difficult to outrun.
>Sid: ?EEGIKN 9G KEG +40 347
#note Sid: While I probably lost a combined 60-70% win over the last three turns, I still surprisingly have tolerable winning chances, This by far sims best.
>Mack: ?EPRSTT 3G PRESTa.T +63 419
>Mack: ?EPRSTT -- -63 356
#note Mack: The most critical turn of the game. I am about 50% sure of PRESTaRT* and at this point down to under three minutes on my clock. I was waffling between playing PRESTaRT and taking 11K PERES, which will win unless Sid bingoes through the R in REDOX. Another downside to trying the phoney is that in all likelihood, Sid will be forced to challenge if he wants any shot at winning. If it was the middle of the game, PRESTaRT would be much more likely to stay on the board than in this situation. According to Quackle, the best play wins about 80% of the time and losing my turn after getting PRESTaRT challenged off wins about 45%. If PRESTaRT is good, I win 95% of the time, only losing if Sid has something like L8 INFERNOs. That means, to be as good as the next best play, I should play PRESTaRT if the odds that I am sure of it are x such that .95x+.45(1-x)=0.8, or x=0.7 or 70%. I'd say I was about 50-50 on PRESTaRT, so trying it was definitely an error. If I don't play PRESTaRT, I can go on of two ways: either I can play 11K PERES and pray that Sid can't bingo to the R in REDOX, or I can go for a counterbingo with 11E or 14I PERT. The upside to 11E PERT is that I am guaranteed two potential lanes for comeback bingos, and the positive to 14I PERT is that, should Sid bingo the the R in REDOX, he will likely open up an easier lane for sevens. Noting that Sid has the blank, I think I prefer allowing him to bingo and hoping for a counterbingo, rather that placing all my eggs in one basket hoping that he can't bingo to the R. I'd probably choose 11H PERT over 14J PERT, since that way I am guaranteed a good shot at bingoing out, whereas if I play ar 14J a bingo like cONFINER will seal the game for Sid. Trying the phoney is definitely wrong, but I am most curious to know whether I should play PERES or PERT, and if PERT is best then in which spot.
>Sid: ?AEFINN 11K FAN. +26 373
#note Mack: Even inputting my rack into the sim, which Sid now knows, somehow INFERNAl only wins 30%, 20% inferior to the best play. However, after challenging off PRESTaRT, Sid knows the exact tiles he will draw, AEOOF. With plays like C2 AFOOT and 10F FE available, he will comfortably be able to win in the endgame, so it seems that INFERNAl should win 100%.
Sid: I saw INFERNAL as a possible 8 with my rack, but I inexplicably missed the spot to play it, as I told Mack after the game. Mack's right, the sim doesn't make a ton of sense here.
>Mack: ?EPRSTT 10F PES +26 382
#note Mack: At this point I am under a minute on time so just slap down the first reasonable option I see. Quackle suggests a very intriguing option, 14N PI for eight points, after which I will draw a bingo to the R with any tile except the one remaining N. With Sid also very low on time, PI forces him to make a very difficult decision regarding whether or not to block the R, and even if he decides to block the R he won't be able to score much. In retrospect, I definitely like PI better, and even if time pressure was a nonfactor, I think PI is the best play here.
>Sid: ?AEEFIN 4L h. +12 385
#note Mack: Great play by Sid, this blocks my out of ROTaTOR and the high-scoring 4I TRODE. Without the time factor I can still win by nine after this play, but since I am down to three seconds I will go over and, in the best case scenario, lose by one.
Sid: I played hUH to block both rotator and grotto/obe, but in reality, kNIFER is my only winning play. However, with both of us extremely low on time, this gets the job done.
>Mack: ?OORTT C2 gROT.O +12 394
#note Mack: This play is quite atrocious, but just having gone over on time, I have no wins at this point. By best play is quite clever: L10 cARROT to block Sid's imminent play of FAZE. However, after he plays C2 FEINT, the best I can do is win by nine, which is equivalent to losing by one with having gone over.
>Sid: AEEFIN 10L FA.E +24 409
#note Sid: Even now, FAZE is technically the only winning play.
>Mack: T K11 ..T +6 400
#note Mack: FART and 9M TAN are one better, but at this point it doesn't matter. Props to Sid on a well-deserved win! Final score 409-396 after time penalties.
>Mack: (EIN) +6 406
#note Sid: What a rollercoaster game! I think I made three awful mistakes with my inability to find simple bingos, but I was luckily still able to pull it off. I suppose with each of us having more time, Mack would win easily, but that's that. Thanks to Mack for the game and the commentary, I was glad to be a part of it.
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