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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEITXY 8B AnXIETY +98 98
#note Luck box! The other bingo that is apparently slightly better is 8G EpITAXY. Nonetheless, this is a helluva start.
>Chris_Cree: EEKT 7B KEET +28 28
>Jim_Burlant: EGLTTUW H4 GUTT. +11 109
#note No real clue what to do once W(I)GLET was blocked. As much of a rack killer as the W is, I felt GU was even worse, so dumping that was my priority. Quackle agrees - H4 GUTTY wins the sim. If you want to score, the one decent play is TELEX D4, which is a close runner-up in the sim. I never even saw that, since the GU combo or the W had to go.
>Chris_Cree: DHRS 5G H.RDS +18 46
>Jim_Burlant: ELOOTUW 6B OWL +32 141
#note Good thing I got rid of the U on my last turn. Anything that unloads the U (C3 TOLUENE, J1 WOULD, etc.) doesn't score squat and possibly leaves me with terrible board position. This scores 32 and unloads the W; the U will have to wait. Q agrees - this is best, nothing else is even worth considering.
>Chris_Cree: EENRSTY K5 .TYRENES +72 118
#note Only bingo for Chris - he's up to 29% winning chances in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: EEINOTU 8K .OUEN +18 159
#note Statically this doesn't do well but the sim is another story - it's either this or ROUTE in the same location, with this play getting the nominal edge due to leave. 66.5% to win.
>Chris_Cree: DHLO L12 HOLD +30 148
>Jim_Burlant: AEIOPRT 10E ATROPI.E +64 223
#note I alphagrammed AEILOPRT and thought, "POLARITE* is phony" and couldn't remember that there was anything in that group of letters. So I put this down, hit the clock, and realized 2 seconds later that I'd just whiffed on PETIOLAR. Skillz, I tell ya. Quackle's evaluation surprises me. I would have thought that, given the 10-point difference between the plays (this scores 64 to PETIOLAR's 74), and given that PETIOLAR all but eliminates possible 3x3s on row 15, PETIOLAR would have been a slam-dunk winner. The sim says PETIOLAR is best, though it only wins 0.75% more often and is barely 2 points better. Championship Player is even more surprising: CP says my play is best and that PETIOLAR wins 2/3% less often and is a 3.6-point dog. What all this really says is that PETIOLAR gives back so many easy plays for 40+ that the 10-point difference between the two plays is rendered moot. Thus, this position comes down to a judgment call: if you think the D is a major 3x3 threat, then it's worth it to play PETIOLAR, knowing you're certain to give back something in the high 30's, or worse. If not, play this and gamble that opponent doesn't have a 3x3. Pick your poison.
>Chris_Cree: AVW M11 VAW +34 182
>Jim_Burlant: ABEENOU 15G ABOUN. +27 250
#note VAW hurt, as he blocked my impending non-bingo NEBULAE. As for plays I *can* make, it's either this or ADOBE. Despite the unbalanced leave (15K ADOBE leaves ENU, which isn't great but could be good if I draw the Q), this is best - both for the extra points and board position (this also kills 6's at H10). 78-1/2% to win.
>Chris_Cree: AZ 14F ZA +33 215
>Jim_Burlant: BEEIINQ 13G BINE +18 268
#note I saw QI 11D (best statically) and rejected it due to the tile pool and board position. Even though I kept an I, there were still 5 unseen. Assuming Chris had one, QI gave back way too many easy points and could have lost the game if he had a bingo where he needed somewhere to hook an I. After a while, the front hook to AA finally registered and I put this down. Besides setting up the obvious Q play, I still have QI 11D as a bailout and I also get some good turnover - essential with a blank unseen. Quackle agrees: this is clearly my best play. This wins 77-1/2%; next best is 6F BITE, which wins 5% less often and sims 9 points down.
>Chris_Cree: ACDIR 11A CAIRD +22 237
>Jim_Burlant: EIILOQS 12H QI +44 312
#note Strong play, but not best. I was so fixated on following through with the plan from my previous turn that I didn't see M3 SILIQUE. Nonetheless, I benefitted from this on the next turn. SILIQUE wins 91%; this wins just shy of 89 and sims barely 1-1/2 points down.
>Chris_Cree: CDEFR B10 F.RCED +40 277
>Jim_Burlant: EILOOSV O3 VIOLO.ES +62 374
#note Only bingo. 97% to win.
>Chris_Cree: EP A14 PE +25 302
>Jim_Burlant: ?ALMMNU N7 M.NU +18 392
#note If you whiff on the bingo like I did, this is one of your two best choices; the intent is to ensure Chris can't bingo anywhere. But the best play here is clearly ALUMINUM M2 for 80. As an aside, what's really sad is that I saw ALUM as a cheap block and never thought of ALUMiN(U)M. As a side note - while this doesn't cost me the win, the spread I coughed up here left me no margin to withstand the end-game blunder I was going to make in the KOTH against Chris.
>Chris_Cree: A 4G A. +8 310
>Jim_Burlant: ?AFGILM 3C MaFIA +27 419
#note The biggest threat I saw in the pool was ERASION, and blocking that was my sole intent with this play.
>Chris_Cree: AEGJNRS 4B JAR +26 336
>Jim_Burlant: GIILO N13 LOG +14 433
#note The intent is to block his out play of NEGS.
>Chris_Cree: EGNS F2 G.N +12 348
>Jim_Burlant: II 7G I. +6 439
#note Dissapointed in myself that I missed an admittedly hard-to-find ALUMINUM (yes, I obviously know the word but, being in the 26000's, that's WAY past any range I've ever studied), but outside of that, I can't play better than this.
>Chris_Cree: ES O12 ES +10 358
>Chris_Cree: (I) +2 360
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