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#player1 Jesse_Day Jesse Day
#player2 Carl Carl
>Jesse_Day: EGKLU 8D KLUGE +30 30
>Carl: AEHNNTT D4 THAN. +24 24
>Jesse_Day: ?AENPRZ I2 PANZERs +79 109
>Carl: AELNRST H8 .TERNALS +77 101
>Jesse_Day: AFGIT 5I .AFTIG +38 147
>Carl: ?DIPUVY N2 PUD.Y +40 141
>Jesse_Day: LNOO H1 NOLO +24 171
>Carl: ?AIMSSV K5 .AuVISMS +80 221
#note SAVAGISM or ATAVISMS on Row 13 squeak out the sim win. I considered ATAVISMS but not SAVAGISM. (-4)
>Jesse_Day: AJOT O1 JATO +46 217
>Carl: AGHOSTU O6 OUGHT +32 253
#note SOUGH 12K wins the sim by a hair.
>Jesse_Day: DEIOX E1 DOXIE +38 255
#note Total brainfart. It's not even dictionary confusion. It's, "Carl didn't look at the word and bother to challenge." A moment's thought would have invalidated it. By the time I noticed, it was too late.
>Carl: ACIOSTV 1A AVOI. +30 283
#note Missing VOCALIST, which would have blocked his bingo. I want to believe that this wasn't my rack, but that's what I wrote down, and it's consistent with my next rack. (-23)
>Jesse_Day: ADDEELR 15F RE.ADDLE +61 316
#note This ought to cost me the game.
>Carl: CENSTWY M13 WY. +18 301
>Jesse_Day: CEIRU L1 CURI.E +24 340
>Carl: BCEINST 2D N.B +13 314
#note I was right to find the F2 hotspot worrisome, but BOP G2 accomplishes the same thing and keeps a better leave. (-5)
>Jesse_Day: IQ J9 QI +28 368
>Carl: ACEEIST B1 .IE +12 326
#note Quackle Championship Player won't consider anything but VESICATE; a many-ply sim puts VIE ahead by 4.6%. The obvious problem with VESICATE is that Jesse has two easy ways to win: He will usually play out first, and will almost always have a big play at 8A. Either of those spell serious trouble, and in fact, he'll probably do both. Pretty much any reasonable combination in the bag works against me. The only scenario I could think of has BFMW in the bag, and, like, six vowels on his rack. And if his rack was that bad last turn, he might have exchanged rather than play QI drawing to that garbage. With this inference, VESICATE looks even worse than the sim. I acknowledge that I won't often draw a playable bingo after VIE (one time in four along row A by my count), but I'd rather take a 25% chance than bingo my way to almost-certain doom.
>Jesse_Day: BIIM E8 .IMBI +18 386
#note Interestingly, Elise puts VESICATE's win percentage at 41.4%, and VIE at 21.9%, which has to be way off. I manually simmed VESICATE to the end 20 times and it only won twice-- once, Jesse's rack was that bad, and the other time, I drew FIMBRIAE.
>Carl: ACEORST A3 RECOATS +82 408
#note Unorthodox plays like VIE don't come easily to me. I almost always miss them. So when I get to find one, with several experts watching and everything on the line, and it pays off, it feels really good. Without VIE, I would not have won the Vancouver tournament. And that makes it #1 on Carl Johnson's 2013 Awesome Play countdown! Happy New Year, everyone, and thanks for playing!
>Jesse_Day: EEEFORW N12 WEER +40 426
>Jesse_Day: EEEFORW -- -40 386
#note PS. My math for the 25% figure is as follows: 2 shots at IN for ACETINS, 6 shots at ACETOSE, 4 shots at ATRESIC, 2 shots at NECTARS, 4 for RECOATS, 2 for OCTANES, and one chance at WEBCAST is 21 combinations out of 84 total. A better mathematician may correct me on this. I don't doubt that forgoing the bingo is correct, but there may yet be a better fish.
>Carl: N 5D ..N +6 414
>Carl: (EEEFORW) +26 440
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