| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Rafi Rafi
#player2 Mike Mike
#description Saved by Elise version 0.0.7
>Rafi: FOU 8G FOU +12 12
>Mike: CGHLQTY -GHQTY +0 0
#note It's worth playing through with LYCH J8. Just didn't see it.
>Rafi: ?AGINST 9F cASTING +70 82
>Mike: CILNOOW L9 .LOW +16 16
#note Though the sims don't hammer this too hard (to the tune of 1.5-2.5% below the best play of COWLING L3), this is probably a game-losing play. It's clear from Rafi's choice of bingos that he is deliberately pursuing a closed board. While it's true that GLOW forks the board a little bit (on the theory that it's hard to use the 8K-8O spot without opening something else up), COWLING does this much better by making the S-hook on CASTING nearly impossible to block. COWLING is absolutely the play here.
>Rafi: AEU 8K EAU +16 98
>Mike: ?BCINOY K11 YOB +31 47
>Rafi: ANTU M10 AUNT +22 120
>Mike: ?CEEIJN I7 J..E +19 66
>Rafi: BDIOU F9 .UBOID +14 134
>Mike: ?ACEEIN 14B EChI.NAE +70 136
#note Normally, when two bingos score equally but one opens a triple-triple line, the other bingo will sim 3-4% better. Here, it's EnNEADIC 14A that wins the sim by that margin. I think this is less about the triple-triple and more about the 15H hotspot being made much harder to use. I probably do want to play ENNEADIC, but I'll listen to arguments on both sides.
>Rafi: ENSW 15F SEWN +49 183
>Mike: DDEGHOV B10 HEDG.D +20 156
#note I can understand the rationale behind the sim winner, HOOVED 12D. But is it really 8-12% worse? I know the lines around the H are easy to shut down (any play forming EH does it), but still, that's an awfully large margin.
>Rafi: HM N9 HM +24 207
>Mike: OOQRTVV -OOQVV +0 156
#note Take your pick of exchanges. Elise is suggesting TORO A7, which makes no sense whatsoever.
>Rafi: IKP O8 KIP +40 247
>Mike: IIILRRT 11D LI.RI +14 170
#note 3-ply winprob simulation (1210), -115.38 / 5.3% [31.42s]
>Rafi: DEINNOT A5 INTONED +82 329
>Mike: IOPRSTT B2 PORT +14 184
#note At this point, tournament considerations come into play. Going into this game, I was in third place, one game and 240 spread points behind Rafi (the leader). I'm not playing him in round 18, so I need to make sure that Rafi doesn't get so far ahead on spread that, if I'm playing him in round 19 and I'm two games behind, the spread difference is manageable. I'll take this one last shot to try to win the game, but after this, it's about spread preservation.
>Rafi: AEEV 1A EAVE +31 360
>Mike: AGIQSTT E13 Q. +22 206
#note 3-ply winprob simulation (2540), -192.02 / 0.1% [47.29s]
>Rafi: AR C1 .AR +20 380
>Mike: AGISTTZ D3 TAG +11 217
#note 3-ply spread simulation (880), -176.99 / 0.1% [93.72s]
>Rafi: MOR E4 MOR +20 400
>Mike: EEISTXZ D8 EXI.E +26 243
#note Flat-out missed XIS 7M. This spread-preservation plan isn't working out so well.
>Rafi: AY 14M YA +18 418
>Mike: ACOSTVZ K5 COV.. +20 263
>Rafi: EFILRRS 6J L.RE +6 424
>Mike: ALSTZ M3 LAZ. +26 289
>Rafi: FIRS O12 FIRS +39 463
>Rafi: (ST) +4 467
|
