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#player1 Noah Noah
#player2 Rafi_Stern Rafi Stern
>Noah: CEEGITY H7 GEY +14 14
>Rafi_Stern: ?FLLOTT I8 LOFT +16 16
#note Rafi provided his racks for this game.
>Noah: CEEIQST J6 QIS +35 49
>Rafi_Stern: ?AKLNPT G6 KAT +16 32
>Noah: CDEELMT H11 ELECT +26 75
>Rafi_Stern: ?BLLNNP -BLLNP +0 32
#note LP? edges this in a sim.
>Noah: ADEEHMN 15F AN.HEMED +65 140
>Rafi_Stern: ?GMNOSS 5C MOSSiNG +75 107
>Noah: AEEIIPR - +0 140
#note This challenge was poorly thought out. Given my knowledge, I may have made the correct decision, but this decision deserved more time than it got in the game. Kenji once said that difficult challenges should use about half of your clock. I don't think you can put a number on such a decision, but the sentiment makes sense. A challenge like this is likely to be the most important decision in the game, so use your time. My thought process here was: 1) Rafi took awhile to play MOSSiNG, probably because he was looking for other bingos, so he probably wasn't sure of it. 2) Challenging MOSSiNG and it not being good gives Rafi a big positional advantage, being able to use the best scoring spot on the board and also blocking PEREIA, but challenging off and playing PEREIA also gives me a big advantage. So I decided to challenge. This is just horrible reasoning, which I mulled over on the car drive home. First of all, Rafi could've spent two minutes on GMNOSS? and still been sure it was a word. After all, theoretical bingos through the E could be positionally superior to MOSSiNG. As it turns out, Rafi didn't love MOSSiNG, and thought it would come off, but I don't think I could've figured this out using good reasoning. Second of all, my reasoning on challenging wasn't very careful. Let's look at the three situations. If I don't challenge and play PEREIA, I go up a bingo + a tempo. If I challenge and it's good, in the near future, the score is about even, and I have something like half a tempo, because Rafi gets his pick of great scoring spots and often blocks PEREIA, forcing me to do EPIC or something even worse next turn. If I challenge and it's bad, I play PEREIA but he gets MOGS overlapping for 36 and keeping NS? with reasonable lines still open. Then I play something, and he likely bingos in the next turn or two. So I'm up more like a bingo and two tempos, maybe roughly up two bingos, and on a board that isn't horribly open (MOGS helps me out a fair bit). Looking at this stuff, it seems like I need to dislike MOSSiNG pretty well to challenge it. In reality, I wasn't sure about it at all, though my interpretation of Rafi's behavior led me to dislike it a tad. I think if I reason this correctly, though, I should play PEREIA. The moral of the story is to continue realizing which decisions are important and take plenty of time to make them. The other moral is to be a bit more careful about reasoning based on opponent's behavior.
>Rafi_Stern: ?AHNORR 14J HORA +37 144
#note Rafi missed some great NOAH words here!
>Noah: AEEIIPR 14E EPI. +26 166
>Rafi_Stern: ?CEEINR D5 .vERNICE +70 214
#note Another cool miss for Rafi.
>Noah: AEIIRTU K2 URAEI +21 187
#note So the other play is QUAI here. I didn't play QUAI because I didn't like how easily it seemed to allow Rafi to close the board. However, it's not that easy, Plays through the I aren't easy to come by, especially not ones that close the HORA hooks. Also the N and R are still there to open through. Play QUAI is probably fine. Should've thought about this, as I played UREI rather quickly.
>Rafi_Stern: EILNOST N8 ENTOILS +84 298
>Noah: DFIITUW O6 DIF +36 223
#note Wasn't sure between this and WUD. In a sum their equities are basically the same. I'm going completely for spread at this point, as it's very important for placing in this tournament and I'm very rarely winning this game.
>Rafi_Stern: ABLPVXZ J1 AX +50 348
#note Why not ZEP first? ZEV would disapprove.
>Noah: EIIOTUW N2 TOWIE +25 248
>Rafi_Stern: BJLPUVZ 13G Z.P +49 397
>Noah: ADINRRU 8A DUR. +15 263
#note DIRL 13K seems like a good spread choice. DURRA is probably better than this.
>Rafi_Stern: BJLUUVW 1G JUB. +39 436
#note Maybe UVULA...draws into a lot of good plays.
>Noah: ADINRRY M1 RAY +24 287
>Rafi_Stern: ALOOUVW 13L OW. +29 465
>Noah: BDINORT L12 B... +12 299
#note Wasn't sure whether this or a scoring playwould be better. A sim puts DRIB, BOD, DIB at slightly higher equities. Maybe a bit higher than that because Rafi will make blocking plays in response to BORE.
>Rafi_Stern: AELNOUV B6 VA. +14 479
>Noah: DGINORT 2C TRIGON +22 321
>Rafi_Stern: EILNOUV O1 LENO +30 509
>Noah: AAD A8 .ADA +6 327
#note AD L3 is 2 more.
>Noah: (IUV) +12 339
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