| Player 1 |
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#player1 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Darrell_Day: HOPSTUX -HOPST +0 0
>Jim_Burlant: EEFINOO 8G FOE +12 12
#note It's either this or exchange EFIOO; I felt that, while EINO could get ugly with the wrong draw, I didn't think it was ugly enough to warrant passing up the opportunity to take out the star. Quackle agrees - this is best.
>Darrell_Day: AEGNRTU H8 .UTRANGE +80 80
#note Consolation: even if I'd exchanged, he'd have had GAUNTER.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEINOQ 10F QA. +32 44
#note My normal inclination would be to dump vowels and delay the Q drop-off with this vowel overloaded mess. Unfortunately, this is not a Q-friendly board, and I can't take the chance on watching this spot disappear, especially since any vowel dump would require me to dump my I and A. I have to ditch the Q now. This is best - 21% to win.
>Darrell_Day: BHU 7I HUB +21 101
>Jim_Burlant: EEEILNO 8K ELOIN +22 66
#note Reasonable choice, but not best. I never saw EELIER 11C, as I didn't want to burn ALL my E's while leaving O8 open. Q says EELIER was the clear winner; as for the next 4 choices (13C LEONINE, 11E LIERNE, 8K OLEIN, and this) - pick 'em. They're all winning within 1% and simming within 1-1/2 points of each other. Maybe OLEIN instead of this to float the E for more volatility, but I'm fine with an 8K play to make sure the board stays alive.
>Darrell_Day: OTW 9K TOW +26 127
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEORU -EEOU +0 66
#note In the strictest sense it's wrong to exchange here. That said, this was not a knee-jerk play made out of frustration. I rejected ROUE 7D due to board position and the vowel overloaded leave. As for Q extensions, I didn't like QUEER and QUARE, and I never thought of QUAERE. Quackle prefers F10 QUAERE for 17 and says exchanging is my next best choice as it sims better than the 5's QUEER or QUARE. The 17 points for QUAERE are hard to stay away from. But, looking at QUAERE now in light of who I'm playing, I don't like what it or any of the Q extensions do to the board. If I extend the Q, one of two things happens and neither is good: he somehow shuts down bingo possibilities in the southeast, or he scores big at 15A and I'm trailing by 80+ sitting on a more or less random rack. And if he blocks bingoes after QUAERE, I may not be able to score if I can't reach from 15A, and my remaining bingo lines are either limited or not very promising. QUAERE wins 19.95%; this wins 18. Whether or not you agree with my choice, this did work out.
>Darrell_Day: KOW 13G K.OW +17 144
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEMOR O3 DEMEA.OR +62 128
#note Had I made the technically correct play of QUAERE on my previous turn, I'd be sitting on DEEMOO and a 7th tile and not bingoing unless I drew an L - barely a 5% chance of that given the pool. As for this: ENAMORED O7 also scores 62; I chose this because the northeast is still alive and he can't just shut everything down. Back to 32% to win, but not for long.
>Darrell_Day: EEGINNS 6C ENGINES +66 210
#note Only bingo for Darrell. He's 80% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: BIINOTY 11G B.IONY +26 154
#note Q likes N4 BOY. While it scores 37 to this play's 26, it also keeps duplicated I's and, more importantly, defends the northeast for Darrell. If I play there, his next play will almost certainly be something that underlaps or overlaps ENGINES. I realized that this creates a J hot spot at 10J, but I now need the extra volatility if I'm going to get back in this. Championship player indicates that, while it prefers N4 BOY, this is clearly the best option I have that eliminates one of my duplicated I's. I'm fine with this, even if Quackle thinks I should take the 37 for BOY, leave myself duplicated I's and defend the board for him.
>Darrell_Day: IZ 14F ZI. +39 249
>Jim_Burlant: EFIIRTU 3I FRUITE. +30 184
#note And if I'd done what Q wanted me to, I'd be sitting on triplicated I's and be looking at a low-scoring I dump. As for this position - it's this or H1 FEIRIE. Q marginally prefers FEIRIE; I'm fine with this since it unloads the U. 6% to win - looking bleak.
>Darrell_Day: ?ELRTXY 15H .XpERTLY +104 353
#note Ouch! The fat lady isn't singing just yet, but she's getting warmed up.
>Jim_Burlant: AADILPP C1 APPLI.D +28 212
#note Q says I should just save spread and concede the loss by playing 5C PIAL; this is a close second in the sim. What do I have to lose at this point besides spread?
>Darrell_Day: MOR 1A RO.M +27 380
>Jim_Burlant: ADEISST 2B S.A +18 230
#note Q says I shouldn't bother playing to preserve the rack and that, while I played in the right spot, I should play long with SPIED, SPAED, or SPAIT or SPADE - whatever.
>Darrell_Day: GIN 13G ....ING +30 410
>Jim_Burlant: DDEIOST 4A DE.TOIDS +76 306
#note Back from 0.0% winning chances to 1%. What miracle can I conjure up to win this game?
>Darrell_Day: AHRS N2 S.RAH +51 461
>Darrell_Day: AHRS -- -51 410
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACEIJL J10 J. +25 331
#note Now THAT makes things interesting. If Darrell had put down any acceptable play, I'd have played Jo 10J 55 with the blank, as the A column was sure to disappear on the next turn. Instead, I now know that he doesn't have a play down the A column and that, if I fish the J, I have a good shot at a spread saving bingo. Quackle emphatically disagrees. Even when simmed against his rack fragment of AHRSU (his next play he put down UH instead of AH), the duck thinks I should play L1 JAIL (what, so he can play JARS for 33? Seriously?). I see too many rack killers (the duplicated V's, and practically everything in there duplicates something in my rack) to risk playing long in that pool.
>Darrell_Day: AHRSU N5 UH +30 440
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACCEIL M7 C.. +11 342
#note I put this down not because it was a strategic choice; even though I'd recognized a potential DELICAtE if I'd landed the E when I fished the J, I never thought of DELICACY if I landed the C and I whiffed on the bingo. All I saw were 7's (CHALICE, COELIAC) that didn't play. Quackle (both the sim and Championship Player) think this play was the right choice. That has got to be wrong - given that this game was over 5 turns ago, the best thing I can do is bingo to reduce spread since the A column is going to shut down if I don't hit it now. But you have to find it to play it.
>Darrell_Day: AARSTVV A4 .ARTS +18 458
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACEEIL L2 C.LIA +14 356
>Darrell_Day: AAVV 15D AVA +18 476
>Jim_Burlant: ?EE 2H sEE +13 369
>Jim_Burlant: (V) +8 377
#note The consolation I can take is that the missed bingo cost me spread but not the win; if I find it, he undoubtedly plays VIVAS for 22 and I lose by 40ish instead of 90, but that's about the only improvement I could have made. That said, there wasn't much I could do about the win or loss here. |
