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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIINQR 8B INQuIRE +100 100
#note Laugh if you will, but I almost missed this and was about to put down the autopilot QI before I saw this. Anyway, consider it karmic payback for nationals, where he hit me with an openig rack EXSCIND for 102. :-) This wins 81%.
>Darrell_Day: DNOUV I6 VODUN +28 28
>Jim_Burlant: AEJLLNT F6 JA.L +27 127
#note This scores identically at B6 but the board position - not opening up any potential 7's down the A column - makes this best. At this point, I was feeling smugly confident - I'd bingoed for 100, hit the easy 27-point J play, and was drawing 3 to ELNT. I thought this was going to be a cakewalk, but the tile gods had other ideas.
>Darrell_Day: COO G4 COO +14 42
>Jim_Burlant: BDDELNT B6 BL.ND +18 145
#note 7H BOLD preserves the best leave (DENT) but gives up a little too much in in score (11 points compared to 18 for this) and board position; with this, he needs a 6 or a bingo to really hurt me down the A column, where any number of 5's will play to O8 (not to mention giving him a clean shot at the double-double down the K column). Q agrees - this is best. 88% to win. For reference, BLINDED for 3 extra points wins 1% less often and sims 6 points down, indicating that, between board position and leave, I'd have to probably score 9 more points to justify dumping the DE with BLINDED; the extra 3 points just aren't enough to justify blowing the rack apart.
>Darrell_Day: EEGLNST 11C GENTLES +76 118
#note Darrell's other bingo is 4B NEGLECTS 74. This is marginally better in the sim.
>Jim_Burlant: DEEIOTT 12B DOTE +19 164
#note Score-wise, all of my top-tier choices score between 18 and 21 points, and this is one of them. Q says 4G COEDIT for 20 is best. I passed on it because I misscored it as 18 when I evaluated the play. J9 TOTE is also a good choice in the duck's eyes, though I think it gives back way too many hooks (DRRRRRSSS still unseen) for my tastes. The one drawback to this was a potential cheap X play at 13A or 13B, but I didn't think that was really enough to persuade me to play the safer COEDIT for what I thought was only 18 points. Whatever - Quackle says this wins roughly 2% less often and sims 3-1/2 points down at 1000 iterations.
>Darrell_Day: ACKR 4D CRA.K +36 154
>Jim_Burlant: EFIPRTT 13A FET +23 187
#note Again, a reasonable choice, but not best in the duck's eyes. I saw H1 PERK, which does well statically but fares miserably in the sim. I just couldn't wrap my arms around keepng the F. This or 12G IF are the two best choices I have that unload the F. Again, nervous about the X, but I wanted to unload the F. Quackle's choice is J9 PETTI or J9 PETIT. This wins 0.8% less often that PETTI and sims barely 1 point down at 1000 iterations.
>Darrell_Day: AX 14A AX +45 199
#note $%%@! He's got the X.
>Jim_Burlant: IMPRRTW H1 MIR. +30 217
#note At this point I felt like this was going to be one of those games where I hit an opening rack bingo and accomplished absolutely nothing else. As for this, my choices are pretty much limited to TWIRP J11, this, or 13E TWIRP. TWIRP gives up too much both in score (21 at J11 and 17 at 13E to this play's 30) and board position at J11 for me to justify the play. I'm going to have to grind. Q agrees - this is best. 47-1/2% to win.
>Darrell_Day: DI I1 ID +10 209
>Jim_Burlant: AEPRTWY 15A TYPE +63 280
#note Awesome draw!!!! And the tables are turned - I get more from the X than Darrell. This is clearly best. Just shy of 81% to win.
>Darrell_Day: HIP 14D HIP +19 228
>Jim_Burlant: AEGRTVW H11 .VERT +36 316
#note Crappy leave, but the only play that unloads the W and V is 7H WOVE, which neither defends anything, nor scores. This is clearly best; this scores 36, and nothing else that's available scores more than 28. And WOVE only scores 15. 88% to win in a short sim.
>Darrell_Day: EZ 13G Z.E +23 251
>Jim_Burlant: AEGRRUW 6B .UG +6 322
#note No idea what to do initially, and this was one of a couple of plays that, post-mortem, my gut said I got wrong. I was partially right in my assessment. I don't have any options that score well; my best "scoring" play is C5 WEAN 15, but that leaves me GU. GUIDER 2F seemed reckless given the pool (SSS? unseen) and his last play. Q indicates that this play was the wrong execution of the right idea. I thought that, with AAAAAEEE? unseen, I should take away possible 7's ending in AE down the A column (FIBULAE, rETINAE, etc.). Q more or less agrees, though it correctly indicates I could have cleaned out the rack a bit better and scored a few more points by playing RUGAE A3 for 13 instead of this. If I had it to do again, I'd play RUGA A3 for 10 and keep my E. Surprisingly, this only gives up barely 3-1/2 points of valuation to A3 RUGA. While it's not best, it's not terrible given my limited options as it does defend and, given that there are no R's in the pool, I don't have to worry about drawing a 3rd R.
>Darrell_Day: AEGINNS 15F AN.IGENS +64 315
>Jim_Burlant: AEOORRW M10 WOOER. +18 340
#note Saw the obvious WOOER 14K but slotting the triple with the blank unseen and Darrell having just drawn 7 seemed insane. This wasn't one of the original kibbitzer options, but it winds up topping the sim. Still in the driver's seat at 56.3% to win.
>Darrell_Day: BHOS L9 BOSH +35 350
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAAORU 1H ..AOU +8 348
#note This was not auto-pilot, as I double-checked the tracking before proceeding. I considered exchanging but the pool looked so ghastly with FIIIUWY unseen that I thought it just as likely I'd still wind up with garbage after an exchange, so I opted to play through. Saw AURA 14K but rejected it due to what it gave back. AURA E2 is somewhat safer but still gives back a bunch of 2's (AW, MY, AY) that, if I don't draw into a bingo this turn, could win him the game. Then I saw this. This and 14K AURA sim interchangeably at the top, and E2 AURA sims 1 point down and wins barely less thant his choice; in the duck's eyes, the difference is indistinguishable. What I think this position really comes down to is, do I want to pin all my hopes on the bingo? If so, 14K AURA is the play as it opens up multiple lines he can't defend all at once. If I want to still have a shot in the end game if the bingo doesn't come, MIAOU is the play. Your call. 64% to win.
>Darrell_Day: ALW K8 LAW +19 369
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAEMRU 6I .AU +8 356
#note Damn - he's got the tiles he needs to block. With URAEMiA blocked, a fish is the call...but where? I wanted to fish one and take the bag down to 1, but I couldn't see a good A fish anywhere, and I didn't feel good about my odds fishing to AAEMR?. The best fish is apparently 11L SOU, if Quackle is to be believed. This is the bronze medalist; the drawback is that it empties the bag; my wisihful thinking at the time was that if I drew IT or IS, I'd have an unblockable AEIMRST in two places as an out bingo. And if the bingo didn't come, VAU sets up the M at 5K.
>Darrell_Day: EFIIIST J11 TIS +25 394
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAEMRY 5K MAY +24 380
#note Time trouble does me in. My DOTE, FET, BUG, WOOER, MIAOU, and VAU turns were anything but autopilot, and this resulted in my barely having 2:26 on my clock at the start of this turn. With nowhere to play dAYMARE, the blank became a double-edged sword, as it offered too many potential options. I looked at using the blank to back hook MIAOU with sMEAR sMEARY or sEAMY, and after concluding that those plays didn't do it, I tried in vain to find overlaps down the N column that weren't there. Not seeing anything good, I had just set up my M with VAU and, being short on time (I burned my clock down to barely 10 - 15 seconds), I put this down. The shame of all this is that I played as well as I did to put myself in position to win and I missed it. It turns out I have exactly two winning plays (variations on the same theme), and everything else loses: MARiA and MARKA 14K leave me ERY that goes out in three different places (YEAR O12, EYRA F1, and OYER K1), and his remaining EFII loses by 1 best case if he follows that up with the right play. Maybe with 5 more minutes on my clock I find it...maybe not. I never saw MARIA or MARKA during the game. Now, be honest - how many of you would have thought to burn the blank for ZERO extra points on this turn and not the last one?
>Darrell_Day: EFII 14K FI.E +21 415
>Jim_Burlant: ?AER 4J REAm +19 399
#note Well played on my end, but not good enough. Maybe if I manage my time better, I have enough time to find my win.
>Jim_Burlant: (I) +2 401
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